USD

Last week, after the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision, the US Dollar Index hit a new monthly high at 105.78 and reached its highest level since March 9th. This was seen as a "hawkish pause" meeting, meaning that the Federal Reserve announced a pause in rate hikes but sent hawkish signals. If the extent of the hawkishness from the Federal Reserve surprises the market, the US Dollar Index may continue to reach new recent highs. From the final outcome perspective, the US Dollar bulls got what they wanted. However, the economic outlook may not be as optimistic as the Federal Reserve predicted, and the future of the US Dollar may face uncertainty.

Meanwhile, nominal and real bond yields in the United States are also rising to levels not seen in decades, adding downward pressure on risk assets. This reflects the market's acceptance of the Federal Reserve's commitment to maintaining high-interest rates, reducing the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in the first half of 2024. In the remaining interest rate meetings this year, if Jerome Powell explicitly supports keeping policy rates high and continues to keep discussions about rate cuts vague, the period of high volatility in US bonds and the strength of the US Dollar may extend.

The combined effect of last week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision statement and Powell's speech has strengthened the hawkish stance, leading to the US Dollar Index closing on a weekly basis with ten consecutive gains, also reaching a six-month high at 105.78. The daily chart shows that after breaking above the key support level (104.50-104.70) last week, a new support zone has moved up to 105.00. This support zone is composed of the lower channel line (105.00) and the Powell Pivot (104.67). The future trend may continue to move upward within this channel. If it goes as expected, the upside target for the US Dollar will be towards levels like 105.88 (March high) and 105.95 (Powell Pivot). If it breaks through, the next target could be 106.80 (upper channel line). However, if it goes downward, keep an eye on the key support at 104.67 (Powell Pivot), and if it holds, the bullish outlook remains intact. If an unexpected event occurs, the US Dollar may drop below 104.14 (250-day moving average), opening up further downside potential, with the next target being around 103.32 (lower channel line).

Today, you may consider shorting the US Dollar Index near 105.75 with a stop loss at 105.95 and targets at 105.20 and 105.15.

WTI Spot Crude Oil

Global oil prices are expected to rise for the fourth consecutive month, but after three weeks of gains on the weekly chart, they closed last week with a "doji" candlestick pattern. The international benchmark Brent crude oil price has surged above $90 per barrel, reaching a 10-month high. The US WTI crude oil price has also risen nearly 30% since July. The spike in oil prices is a response to the largest oil-producing countries in the world, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, cutting their supply in an effort to maintain stability in oil prices. Meanwhile, the strong US economy is also stimulating demand for oil.

On the other hand, despite the positive fundamentals supporting the WTI crude oil price last week, the trend started to retreat and adjust after reaching a 10-month high. Currently, although the supply and demand fundamentals are relatively clear in favor of oil prices, there should be some caution regarding short-term pullback risks. Firstly, after WTI crude oil prices refreshed their highs this week, they have clearly retreated, indicating a potential correction from overbought levels, considering that the increase from June to this week's high has been as much as 36%. Another significant market change to watch is a noticeable deterioration in risk appetite, which may persist for some time and drag down oil price performance.

From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil prices rebounded above the $90 level for five consecutive trading days last week, suggesting the possibility of further upside. However, out of these five trading days, three saw intraday highs followed by declines below $90.0, and the weekly chart closed with a "doji" candlestick pattern. This indicates that oil prices may be consolidating near $90.0 in the short term, and downward risks should be observed. WTI crude oil has closed below the $90 level for two consecutive days, implying significant selling pressure above, and a short-term further correction cannot be ruled out. The key support level below is at $89.00, which is the lower channel line. If it falls below $89.00, the next level to watch is around $86.77, which is composed of the Powell Pivot. If this support area is breached, further downside may target around $84.51, near the August high. If oil prices manage to rise above and consistently close above $90.0 this week, there is still potential for further upside, with targets around $92.20 (the midline of the upward channel) and $93.20 (the upper channel line), and a more significant attempt at $94.60 (the upper boundary of the upward channel).

Today, it may be considered to short oil near $90.20, with a stop loss at $90.60 and targets at $89.00 and $88.70.

XAUUSD

After last week's Federal Reserve interest rate decision in September, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintained a hawkish stance this week, stating that interest rates would need to remain in a restrictive range in the foreseeable future. However, due to lingering uncertainty, the gold market remains neutral. Currently, despite the strong performance of the US dollar and the relatively positive attitude of the Federal Reserve towards rising US inflation, the US government is facing the possibility of a shutdown despite the outstanding economic data. This, relatively, has caused market panic and further limited the rise of the US dollar, instead boosting the safe-haven attributes of gold. At present, although the price of gold is trading in a narrow range, it has held up against major resistance levels, even as the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bonds reached a 16-year high of 4.5%. Meanwhile, the US dollar closed the week at its highest level since November 2022. Economic uncertainty continues to support gold as a safe-haven asset.

Despite gold holding its ground, it is challenging for gold to make a significant rebound in the current environment. In the past four reporting weeks, net long positions have dropped by nearly 75%. In this context, gold is undoubtedly finding it difficult to break out of its defensive position in the short term. That said, market sentiment is currently very pessimistic, and it wouldn't take much effort to trigger a price rebound.

On the daily chart, the price of gold is testing the $1925 level in the short term, which is the intersection of the 21-day (1925) and 200-day (1926.20) moving averages. Gold needs to firmly break above this level to further rise towards the key resistance zone composed of 1935 (the midline of the upward channel) and 1936 (the downward extension resistance trendline starting from the July high of 1987.50). The next levels to watch for gold would be 1948.00 (the upper boundary of the upward channel) and 1953.00 (the early September high). On the other hand, due to the ongoing strength of the US dollar, it has raised doubts among investors about a gold rebound. Additionally, the closing price at the end of last week formed a bearish "doji" pattern, so it's not out of the question that gold may retest the low of last week at $1914. If it breaks below that level, it could open the path for gold to decline towards $1901.10 (the September low) and $1900.00. Looking further down, the next key support for gold is at $1884.90 (a previous low).

Today, you may consider shorting gold before $1928, with a stop loss at $1932 and targets at $1916 and $1914.

AUDUSD

Last week, Australia did not release any significant economic data. Therefore, the Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate was primarily influenced by the decisions of the Federal Reserve. Following the latest interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve last week, the AUD/USD pair briefly fell below 0.64, reaching a low point of 0.6385, just a step away from the September low of 0.6357. Towards the end of the week, it moved back above the 10-day moving average at 0.6432.

The AUD/USD currency pair has been in a slow upward trend for the past few weeks. During this period, it gradually rose from this month's low of 0.6357 to a high of 0.6511. The currency pair may have formed an uptrend and retested the upper boundary of the channel and the volatility high of September 1st at 0.6521. It briefly touched the peak of 0.6511 midweek. Currently, the AUD/USD currency pair is still trading in a narrow range due to market reactions to important economic data from the United States, China, and Australia. Despite the US Dollar Index rising to its highest level in months, the AUD/USD currency pair attempted a rebound last week, reaching a high of 0.6511, the highest level since September 1st.

The AUD/USD pair tested near 0.6357 multiple times earlier this month without breaking it. Additionally, technical indicators such as RSI and stochastic are in the process of rebounding, suggesting that the AUD/USD pair may be showing signs of a bottoming and rebounding trend. Over the past month and a half, the AUD/USD has been oscillating within the range of 0.6357 to 0.6520. To continue its recovery momentum from early this month, the AUD/USD needs to hold above 0.6420. Successfully breaking through this upper limit may strengthen the bullish momentum, potentially opening the door to levels like 0.6600 (a psychological level) and 0.6616 (the high from August 10th). The next level to watch would be 0.6660 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the move from 0.6846 to 0.6357). On the contrary, if market sentiment turns in favor of the bears and leads to selling pressure, the initial support level to watch would be the previous low of 0.6357. Further downside could target 0.6272 (the low from November 3rd of the previous year), with a key focus on the 0.6170 level, the October 2022 low.

Today, you may consider going long on the Australian Dollar around 0.6415, with a stop loss at 0.6385 and targets at 0.6480 and 0.6485.

GBPUSD

Last week, the Bank of England announced its September interest rate decision, surprisingly keeping the policy rate unchanged at 5.25%, ending the streak of 14 consecutive rate hikes. This dovish move by the Bank of England seems to signal the end of the interest rate hike cycle, and the attraction of high-interest rates for the British Pound will likely be completely diminished. Next, if economic data from the UK concerning economic growth is unfavorable, it will undoubtedly continue to put pressure on the British Pound. Following the Bank of England's decision to maintain the rate at 5.25%, the GBP/USD continued its downtrend, reaching a six-month low. A series of lower highs and lower lows recorded since July continue to suggest a short-term bearish bias for the GBP/USD pair. The monetary policy statement emphasized the significant increase in international oil prices since the last rate decision, which could keep inflation pressures high in developed economies. Inflation for the past week dropped to 6.7%, and core inflation dropped to 5.2%, both below expectations from the August rate decision. However, service price inflation may still remain high in the short term. Bailey's speech is seen as leaving room for further rate hikes for the remaining part of the year. However, if the UK's economic growth remains weak, the Bank of England may pause its rate hike pace.

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD has experienced a substantial sell-off from its high of 1.3143 since mid-July to the recent low before the weekend at 1.2231 (a drop of 912 pips), leaving a significant impression on the market. With the market now betting on a very small chance of the Bank of England raising rates again by the end of the year, the British Pound seems to have lost support once again. It dropped to a six-month low of 1.2231 last week. Going forward, if the GBP/USD effectively breaks below 1.2231-30, the next potential support levels to watch would be 1.2120 (the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of the move from 1.1804 to 1.3143) and 1.2115 (the lower boundary of the downward channel). Further down, the focus could shift to 1.20 (a psychological level). However, technical indicators like RSI and MACD suggest that the GBP/USD may see a mild recovery in the short term, possibly as soon as next week. Nevertheless, the long-term trend for the GBP/USD remains intact, with no signs of any significant slowdown. Short-term resistance continues to be at 1.2315 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level). If the exchange rate stays above this level, the downward trend may temporarily ease, and further upside testing of 1.2435 (the 200-day moving average) and 1.2449 (the 5-week moving average) could be expected.

Today, it is advised to go long on the British Pound before 1.2215, with a stop loss at 1.2190, and targets at 1.2285 and 1.2295.

USDJPY

Last week, the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision, keeping its ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged. The central bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at a historical low of -0.1% and kept the target for the 10-year government bond yield near 0%, as well as unchanged forward guidance, as expected. Additionally, Japan's overall CPI for August grew by 3.2% year-on-year, and core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year. Overall, due to the high uncertainty surrounding the economic and inflation outlook, the Bank of Japan will continue to patiently implement its ultra-loose monetary policy and believes that the risks of overestimating inflation are greater than underestimating it. Of course, the Bank of Japan cannot address the weakening yen by raising interest rates or other monetary policy measures. The speeches of Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda did not bring new support to the yen, and the USD/JPY continued its upward momentum from the previous week. Despite Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki mentioning the urgency of curbing the yen's decline, the Bank of Japan cannot address the weakening yen by raising interest rates or other monetary policy measures.

From a recent technical perspective, although the upward trend of the USD/JPY has slowed in recent weeks, it is far from over. The USD/JPY has been gradually rising within an "ascending wedge" since July, pushing it to a high not seen since October last year at 148.46. The overall trend is biased towards the upside, with a short-term bullish target towards 150.00 (a psychological level) and last year's high of 151.94. If it further breaks through this level, it will lay the foundation for future gains towards the 1990 high of 160.35. Some market views suggest that the 150 level is a trigger point for Japan to take intervention measures, and the probability of the Bank of Japan normalizing its monetary policy in the long term is increasing. Therefore, the upside potential for the USD/JPY is limited, and from a technical standpoint, the USD/JPY has struggled to break through the 149-150 area resistance, making the possibility of a pullback after the rally more likely. Initial support levels are seen at 147.50 (the lower boundary of the ascending wedge) and 147.32 (the 5-week moving average). If it falls below, the next support levels are seen at 146.40 (the midline of the weekly ascending channel) and 145.15 (the 10-week moving average).

Today, it is recommended to go short on the USD/JPY before 148.65, with a stop loss at 148.98 and targets at 147.70 and 147.50.

EURUSD

Last week, after the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision, the US Dollar Index reached a new monthly high of 105.78. The unexpectedly hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, which explicitly stated expectations of further rate hikes in 2023 and only two rate cuts in 2024, led to a strong rally in the US dollar. This was reflected in the decline of the euro, which touched a six-month low of 1.0614. The market is betting that the ECB's policy rates have peaked, intensifying concerns about the deteriorating economic outlook in the eurozone. Given the divergence in economic and central bank rate outlook between the Eurozone and the United States, the overall fundamental pressure on EUR/USD has not changed. In the short term, the market is still digesting the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate meeting, and EUR/USD is consolidating near recent lows. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, the euro still faces downward pressure. Although there is a medium to long-term downtrend, the euro's relative strength is not significant because the US dollar is rising against other currencies. As a key technical factor, there is still a series of support levels around the psychological level of 1.0600.

On the weekly chart, EUR/USD has experienced a ten-week decline, dropping from the high of 1.1275 in mid-July to the low of 1.0614 last Friday, a decline of 661 pips. In the short term, the market is still digesting the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate meeting, and EUR/USD is consolidating near the recent low of 1.06. EUR/USD is testing strong support, including the low of 1.0614 from last Friday, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from the low of 0.9535 to the high of 1.1275 at 1.0610, and the psychological level of 1.0600. Currently, oversold conditions suggest that EUR/USD may have the potential to hold onto the above-mentioned support area, at least to attempt to do so as seen last Thursday and Friday. However, unless EUR/USD can successfully regain some ground, including 1.0700 (a downward resistance trendline from the high of 1.1275 in mid-July) and 1.0822 (the 9-week moving average), it is difficult for the overall bearish technical bias to change. Once below the support levels of 1.0600-1.0604-1.0610, the next important support to watch is the 65-week moving average at 1.0553 and 1.0405 (50% Fibonacci retracement level).

Today, it is suggested to go long on the euro before 1.0620, with a stop loss at 1.0600 and targets at 1.0695 and 1.0710.

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US Dollar Index

On Thursday, September 21st, the United States released strong initial jobless claims data, but data for existing home sales and other indicators performed poorly. As a result, the US Dollar Index initially rose but later retreated. The Federal Reserve in the United States met expectations by keeping the target interest rate range unchanged, but the more optimistic economic growth outlook and the more hawkish policy outlook boosted the US dollar, causing a significant rally in the US Dollar Index from its intraday lows. Recent economic indicators indicate steady economic expansion. Employment growth has slowed in recent months but remains strong, and the unemployment rate remains at a low level. Inflation rates continue to be elevated. The US banking system is sound and resilient. Tightening credit conditions for households and businesses could exert pressure on economic activity, employment, and inflation, although the extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee continues to be highly attentive to inflation risks. The combination of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision statement, outlook materials, and Powell's speech has reinforced a hawkish stance, thereby consolidating the upward momentum of the US dollar. Technically, the upward trend of the US Dollar Index since July remains intact, as long as it holds the support in the 104.50-104.70 area, the bullish outlook will be maintained.

The daily chart shows that the US Dollar Index has once again confirmed the key support at 104.50-104.70 (lowest seen at 104.80 on Tuesday, and 104.65 on Wednesday). This support area consists of the upward trend line starting from the low point of July at 99.57 (104.68) and the series of oscillation highs in May (104.55-70). In the future, the uptrend within the ascending channel may continue. If expectations are met, the upside target for the US Dollar Index will be 105.88 and 105.97 (upper channel line of the Bollinger Bands). Once this level is breached, more upside potential may open up to 106.42 (high point on November 22nd last year). If there is a downside move, continue to focus on the key support area (104.50-104.70). Maintaining stability will keep the bullish outlook intact. If an "unexpected" event occurs, and the US Dollar Index falls below 104.50 and 104.62 (middle axis of the Bollinger Bands), it will open up further downside potential, targeting 104.29 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from 99.57 to 105.73) or even lower levels.

Today, it may be considered to short the US Dollar Index near 105.50, with a stop loss at 105.70 and a target at 105.00 and 104.95.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil experienced a minor rebound on Thursday, closing at $89.28. The Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance, with Powell hinting at a potential increase in neutral interest rates, and cautioning against a sharp decline in market risk sentiment. As the global oil supply-demand outlook may be revised in the fourth quarter, a correction in WTI crude oil prices seems to have officially begun. With the expectation of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates high for a longer period, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated, which puts pressure on U.S. stocks, especially resource-related stocks. Furthermore, the possibility of the Federal Reserve eventually transitioning to rate hikes increases, which is unfavorable for commodity oil prices. The short-term momentum of oil price increases may have already peaked. The recovery in Asian demand is nearing its end, and at current price levels, demand may weaken, limiting further price increases. As oil prices have continued to rise, major institutions have also raised their oil price expectations in their latest forecasts.

WTI crude oil prices are experiencing a long-awaited decline; however, this may be a correction triggered by severe overbought conditions, and the correction space may not be substantial given the favorable fundamentals. From a technical standpoint, WTI crude oil prices are testing support at $90.20 (upward support trendline starting from the low point of $77.50 on August 23) and the psychological level of $90.00. If confirmed to break below, support may be sought around the 20-day moving average at $86.26. The daily chart shows that WTI crude oil has recorded two consecutive days of declines after reaching a ten-month high of $92.23, and has fallen below the $90 level, indicating that a correction may have started, in line with the previous short-term expectation of a correction. Looking ahead, it is expected that WTI crude oil may undergo a short-term correction, with potential support levels at $86.26 and the $87.51 area (double top on the 5th and 6th of this month). In terms of the medium-term trend, if WTI crude oil can stabilize above $88.00 in the future, there is still the possibility of further upward movement towards $93.00 or even the $100.00 level.

Today, it may be considered to go long on crude oil near $89.00, with a stop loss at $88.70, and targets at $90.20 and $90.30.

XAUUSD 

On Thursday, September 21st, gold continued its decline, driven by the surge in the US dollar and US bond yields following the Federal Reserve's strengthening of its hawkish interest rate stance. The Federal Reserve announced its decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged while implying that borrowing costs may remain elevated for a longer period after one more rate hike later this year. Monetary policy through 2024 is expected to be much tighter than previously anticipated. Despite being considered a hedge against rising inflation, higher interest rates have pushed up US Treasury yields, weakening gold's attractiveness as an alternative investment. Additionally, recent strong economic activity in the United States and rising oil and freight prices may lead to a stagnation or even a reversal of recent inflation, necessitating rate hikes. The Federal Reserve is currently maintaining a hawkish tone, which is limiting the upside potential for gold. On the other hand, there are voices in the market that differ from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and believe that rates may be lowered in early 2024. The September Federal Reserve interest rate meeting did not result in a collapse in gold prices. Next, the gold market may enter a period of broad-ranging trading.

From a technical perspective, gold prices touched a high of $1947.40 at one point this week, but subsequently dropped significantly below $1930. On the daily chart, gold prices formed a bearish "head and shoulders" pattern midweek. Bearish sentiment still prevails in the overall technical outlook. The short-term key support is at $1916, which is the upward support trendline extending from the August low of $1984.90. If gold breaks below $1916 and the 20-day moving average, the next support to watch would be at $1909.10 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from $1987.50 to $1884.90). However, further upward movement in the short term would offset the downward trend and suggest that the market bottom may already be in place around $1900.00. The next bullish target is around $1936.20 (50% Fibonacci retracement level from $1987.50 to $1884.90) and $1936.00 (resistance trendline extending from the July high of $1987.50). A breakout would target the high of $1947.30 from Wednesday and $1953 (high point on September 1st).

Today, it may be considered to go long on gold before $1917, with a stop loss at $1913, and targets at $1926 and $1928.

AUDUSD

AUD/USD retreated on Thursday, briefly falling below 0.64 to reach a low of 0.6385. Earlier in the week, its exchange rate had briefly touched a peak of 0.6511, marking an increase of over 1.75% from the September lows. The latest data shows that U.S. inflation had risen in July and August after several months of decline. In August, the inflation rate increased by 3.7% following a 3.2% rise in the previous month. On Thursday, there were no economic data releases from Australia. Therefore, the AUD/USD exchange rate was driven by decisions from the Federal Reserve. The AUD/USD currency pair had been on a slow upward trend over the past few days, gradually rebounding from this month's low of 0.6357 to this week's high of 0.6511. The currency pair has formed an upward trend and retested the volatile high of 0.6521 from September 1st. After the Federal Reserve made its decision, the RSI, which had been rising steadily, began to decline. Sellers may target the previous low of 0.6357, and this currency pair could resume its downward trend.

Looking at the daily chart, AUD/USD briefly challenged the neckline resistance of the double bottom pattern (0.6357/0.6360) after testing the range of 0.6521-0.6522 and then dropped significantly to slightly below 0.64. The highest point during the week was 0.6511, which was the high point at the beginning of this month. If it can successfully break above the upper limit of 0.6521-0.6522 in the future, it may strengthen the bullish momentum, potentially opening the door to 0.6562 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from 0.6895 to 0.6357) and 0.6600 (psychological level). On the contrary, if market sentiment turns in favor of the bears and leads to selling, the initial support level to watch would be 0.6357 (previous low). Although AUD/USD may find support at this level during a pullback, a break below this level could trigger a significant decline, paving the way for a move down to 0.6275, at which point the double bottom pattern would no longer be valid.

Today, it may be considered to go long on the Australian Dollar (AUD) before 0.6400, with a stop loss at 0.6380, and targets at 0.6470 and 0.6480.

GBPUSD 

The Bank of England unexpectedly kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.25%, while the market had expected a 25 basis point rate hike. This decision came after 14 consecutive rate hikes, totaling 515 basis points since December 2021. However, traders reduced their bets on further rate hikes by the Bank of England, with peak rates now expected to be at 5.44%. Overnight index swaps indicate that the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Bank of England in November dropped from 81% before the rate decision to 64%. GBP/USD experienced an immediate short-term decline of nearly 70 pips to a six-month low of 1.2236. Previously released data showed that the UK's August Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly dropped to a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The decline in core inflation and service sector inflation may provide some comfort, and the interest rate differential supporting the British pound is gradually diminishing. After the surprise decision by the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged, the British pound fell to its lowest level since March, and GBP/USD is currently showing a downward trend. If it fails to recover the 1.23 level in the short term, the low range seen at the beginning of this year between 1.20 and 1.19 could be threatened. The 1.25 level above forms the initial resistance.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD still appears to be constrained by the descending trendline resistance that has extended since July, currently around the 1.2520 level. There are currently no signs of a clear breakout from this weak downward trend, and the exchange rate needs to definitively break through this area for the pound to have a tendency to bottom out and rebound. Due to the RSI (24.03) being in the oversold region, the initial rebound targets are at 1.2400 (psychological level) and 1.2406 (220-day moving average), with resistance estimated at 1.2520 (descending trendline resistance since July) and the next level at 1.2590 (34-day moving average). Due to the continuous strength of the US dollar, GBP/USD has fallen to around a six-month low of 1.2236. At present, the pound remains weak. GBP/USD had a minor rebound for two consecutive trading days at the beginning of the week, but the strength was insufficient, and it failed to reach the resistance zone at 1.2400 and 1.2406 before turning lower in the middle of the week. On the downside, the first support level is at 1.2120 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement level from 1.1804 to 1.3143). If the closing price is below this level, it could lead to further decline towards the psychological level of 1.2000.

Today, it is suggested to go long on the British Pound (GBP) before 1.2260, with a stop loss at 1.2235, and targets at 1.2340 and 1.2360.

USDJPY

In early trading on Thursday, USD/JPY rose to 148.46, marking a fresh high not seen in nearly ten and a half months. Subsequently, USD/JPY, despite the rise in U.S. Treasury yields, retraced somewhat. Traders are concerned that if USD/JPY approaches the 150 level, the Bank of Japan may intervene, so they are not prepared to increase long positions above 148.00. The exchange rate fell below 148, closing at 147.58. On Friday, the Japanese yen is facing strong challenges from the US dollar. Additionally, Friday marks the one-year anniversary of the Bank of Japan's intervention to purchase yen, a move that took place for the first time in 24 years. A year ago, the then-Governor of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, pledged to continue implementing accommodative policies after a board meeting, which led to a further depreciation of the yen and prompted the government to buy yen. When the current Governor, Kuroda Kuroda, delivers a speech on Friday, he will have to walk a fine line to avoid sounding too dovish or hawkish. If he strongly denies any intention of raising interest rates, the yen may further weaken, despite warnings from Treasury officials about the possibility of intervention measures to support the yen. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated earlier this week that the United States would not oppose market actions as long as they aimed to eliminate market volatility rather than targeting exchange rate levels.

The daily chart shows that USD/JPY is above the 50-day (1.44.50) and 100-day (1.42.26) moving averages, sending bullish price signals. Midweek, USD/JPY finally broke through the 148.00 (psychological round number) resistance level and reached a high of 148.46, not seen in ten months. In the early part of this month, USD/JPY had repeatedly failed to decisively break through the 148.00 threshold, indicating that there may be a significant number of short positions in that area. This also suggests that a repeat of such results may not be ruled out after the midweek breakout. Once a convincing breakthrough occurs, there may be a challenge to 148.80, followed by support for USD/JPY to move towards the key resistance level of 150.00. Conversely, if there is a reversal in the recent trend (e.g., intervention by the Bank of Japan) leading to a profit-taking retracement, initial support may be found at 147.11 (20-day moving average) and 146.10 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement level from 151.94 to 127.21). If USD/JPY weakens further, the focus may shift to 144.44 (this month's low).

Today, it is suggested to go short on the US dollar (USD) before 148.00, with a stop loss at 148.40, and targets at 146.80 and 146.50.

EURUSD

During the midweek interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but adopted a more hawkish stance, with expectations of another rate hike before the end of the year. Following the meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that although some factors are beyond the Fed's control, aggressive rate hikes are unlikely to lead the economy into a recession. Meanwhile, the interest rate-sensitive two-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a 17-year high on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve seems determined to maintain its hawkish attitude on rate hikes, which undoubtedly continues to exert significant pressure on other currencies. The U.S. dollar received a boost after the signal from the Federal Reserve that it will raise rates again before the end of the year and lower next year's rate cut expectations by 50 basis points (compared to previous expectations). As a result, EUR/USD fell to a six-month low of 1.0617 under pressure from the hawkish Fed.

EUR/USD briefly fell below the low of 1.0616 seen since May 31st yesterday. Currently, the support level at 1.06 below is crucial, and if it cannot hold this level in the future, it may intensify downward pressure, leaving room for further decline towards the important psychological level of 1.05, and further towards 1.0405 (50% Fibonacci retracement level from 0.9535 to 1.1275). On the other hand, the MACD indicator on the daily chart appears to be showing signs of a bullish crossover with the signal line. If there is a tendency for the euro to stabilize above the 10-day moving average of 1.0689 in the future, it may see a resurgence. Furthermore, the descending trendline from the high of 1.1275 extending downward since July is currently at the 1.0760 level. It has the potential to ignite buying interest in the market, paving the way for a further rise towards the 200-day moving average of 1.0828.

Today, it is advisable to go long on the euro (EUR) before 1.0630, with a stop loss at 1.0600, and targets at 1.0695 and 1.0715.

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US Dollar Index

The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday, September 20th, that it would keep the benchmark interest rates unchanged, while suggesting that borrowing costs might remain at higher levels for a longer period after another rate hike later this year. The US Dollar Index saw a short-term increase of 60 points, briefly rising to 105.44. Ahead of the Fed's September rate decision, due to increased risk aversion and rising US bond yields, the US Dollar Index demonstrated a low and rebound pattern, maintaining its volatility near the recent high of 105. Bond yields across different maturities continued to rise, with the 5-year US Treasury yield reaching multi-year highs. These developments reflected the market's cautious stance regarding the Fed's September rate decision, prompting a rebound in the US Dollar Index, which climbed back above 105.00.

Furthermore, earlier data indicated that the total number of building permits issued in the US reached 1.543 million in August, hitting a nearly five-month high, which also supported the US Dollar. Until the dust settles on the Federal Reserve's September rate decision, it is expected that the volatility of the US Dollar Index will be limited, with both bulls and bears exercising caution. Market participants believe that assessing the impact of this significant event on the market goes beyond surface-level analysis and hinges on the degree of expectations being met. Since the market may have already priced in the expectation of the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance, there is a risk of the US Dollar running out of positive momentum. However, if the Fed surprises with a more hawkish stance, the US Dollar Index may continue to hit recent highs.

The daily chart shows that the US Dollar Index has remained above 105.00 for the past week. Currently, the KDJ indicator has crossed bearishly in the overbought zone, suggesting the presence of correction pressure. If the US Dollar falls back below 105.00 this week, there is a possibility of a significant retracement. Key support levels below are at 104.45 (Power Law Centerline) and 104.50 (an upward trendline extending from the July low of 99.57). If these levels are breached, the market may have reached a temporary peak, potentially leading to further declines towards 104.04 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from 99.57 to 105.43) or even lower levels. However, if the US Dollar breaks above 105.43 (last Friday's high) and 105.77 (Power Law Upper Line), the more significant resistance at 105.88 (March 8th high) will be challenged. Once this level is breached, more upside potential may open up.

Today, it may be considered to go long on the US Dollar Index near 105.20, with a stop loss at 105.00 and targets at 105.60 and 105.65.

WTI Crude Oil

Despite a decrease in US inventories failing to provide support, and the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates but hinting at a possible rate hike later this year, crude oil futures continued to decline for the second consecutive day from their highs earlier this year. At the beginning of the week, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond climbed further to 4.371%, reaching a 16-year high not seen since 2007. WTI crude oil briefly rose to a ten-month high of $92.23 per barrel during the trading session but then lost momentum and retreated to consolidate near $90.00 per barrel, giving back all of its intraday gains. As the Federal Reserve's September rate decision approaches, concerns about rising oil prices persist in the market, with various investment institutions issuing warnings. The continued rise in oil prices may increase inflation pressure by year-end, drive bond yields higher, potentially worsening the global growth/inflation mix, and dampening market risk appetite. Furthermore, with Saudi Arabia and Russia extending additional production cuts, oil prices could rise above $100 per barrel, potentially signaling a near-stagnation of the global economy in Q4 2023. On the other hand, due to the rise in the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond, considered the "anchor" of global asset pricing, short-term adjustments in oil prices are expected.

The daily chart shows that WTI crude oil is currently consolidating above the $90 per barrel level, facing short-term resistance at $92.23 (Tuesday's high) and $93.0, with the possibility of further upward movement to $96.0 or even $100. However, the presence of a long upper shadow on the overnight closing suggests an increased possibility of short-term profit-taking by the bulls. Looking ahead, it is expected that WTI crude oil may experience a short-term corrective pullback, with potential support levels below at $90.0 (a psychological level) and $88.51 (10-day moving average) per barrel. In terms of the medium-term trend, if WTI crude oil can effectively stabilize above $85.50 per barrel in the future, there remains the possibility of further upward movement towards the $100 level.

Today, it may be considered to go short on crude oil near $89.40, with a stop loss at $89.80 and targets at $88.30 and $88.10.

XAUUSD

Spot Gold Investors are awaiting decisions on monetary policies from the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England.

Meanwhile, after the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged as expected, gold prices fell yesterday. After a rebound in the past few trading days, spot gold lost some momentum and is currently trading around $1,930 in the short term. Traders are now patiently waiting for the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting scheduled for Wednesday evening. For gold, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting today is undoubtedly crucial, and the market widely predicts that the Federal Reserve will temporarily halt rate hikes this week. If the Federal Reserve chooses to raise rates further to control inflation, this could affect the attractiveness of gold. There is room for further decline in gold prices this year as the demand for gold as a hedge against economic uncertainty and a high inflation environment has actually decreased. The holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, approached an eight-month low last week. Therefore, in the short term, the outlook for gold remains uncertain, swinging between bullish and bearish sentiment. The market is eagerly awaiting clues from central banks regarding monetary policy adjustments, especially the decision to be made by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

The daily chart shows that the gold price is currently hovering near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $1,936.20 (from $1,987.50 to $1,884.90) and just below the $1,936.00 level (downward resistance trendline extending from the July high of $1,987.50). The intraweek high for gold this week was $1,937.30 per ounce, marking a two-week high, but it is currently in a downward state. Gold's technical outlook is neutral as it continues to trade below the bearish 100-day moving average of $1,944, which converges with the Fibonacci retracement level of $1,943.50 (from $1,804.80 to $2,081.90). At the same time, the 20-day (at $1,924.90) and 200-day (at $1,924.80) moving averages are declining below the current gold price level. If gold falls below $1,924, the downside risk may increase towards $1,921 (9-day moving average), and further attention can be paid to the level of $1,909.10 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from $1,987.50 to $1,884.90).

Today, it may be considered to short gold before $1,934, with a stop loss at $1,938 and a target of $1,922 and $1,918.

AUDUSD

The Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes for September, released midweek, revealed that the central bank had considered a 25-basis-point interest rate hike but ultimately decided to keep the overnight cash rate unchanged at 4.1%. The committee noted signs supporting a rate hike, such as weak productivity growth and elevated services price inflation. However, the risk lies in the impact of the tightening cycle that only began in May last year and has yet to fully materialize, ultimately offsetting the effects of these factors. The committee also pointed out that if inflation persists longer than expected, further monetary policy tightening may still be necessary.

AUD/USD continued its upward trend earlier this week, reaching 0.6473, forming a small double top pattern with the high from last Friday at 0.6473. A break above 0.6473, 0.6480 (September 4th high), and 0.6884 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from 0.6895 to 0.6357) resistance areas could pave the way for a rapid move towards the 0.6600 level. In the short term, a rebound towards around 0.6626 (50% Fibonacci retracement level from 0.6895 to 0.6357) and 0.6620 (30-week moving average) is possible. On the other hand, if market momentum turns in favor of the bears, AUD/USD may shift downwards. In such a scenario, initial support would be at 0.6357 (previous low). Although AUD/USD may consolidate near this level during a pullback, a significant decline could open the path towards the 0.6275 level. If this occurs, it would signify the failure of the double top pattern.

Today, it may be considered to go long on the Australian Dollar near 0.6420, with a stop loss at 0.6400 and targets at 0.6480 and 0.6490.

GBPUSD

The Bank of England is scheduled to hold its meeting on Thursday, and the market is currently awaiting the outcome. UK inflation has dropped from a 41-year high of 11.1% in October last year to 6.8%, but it remains the highest among major economies, and progress in reducing inflation has been much slower. A Reuters survey of economists last week showed that a minority of economists believe there is still at least one rate hike space for the Bank of England after September this year. However, expectations for the Bank of England to continue raising rates this year have diminished in the past few weeks, largely due to concerns about stagnation in the UK's economic growth. As a result, speculative investors have trimmed some of their long positions in the Pound, though not significantly. On Wednesday evening, the Federal Reserve held its interest rate meeting ahead of the Bank of England. If the Federal Reserve stays put and reveals a dovish stance in its forward rate guidance, there is a risk of oversold rebound in GBP/USD.

Due to the continued strength of the US Dollar, the GBP/USD exchange rate has fallen to around a four-month low of 1.2330. The Pound remains weak ahead of major events such as UK inflation data, the Federal Open Market Committee's decision on Wednesday, and the Bank of England's decision on Thursday. GBP/USD made a small rebound for two consecutive trading days earlier this week but failed to reach the 1.2400 (upper channel line) and 1.2402 (220-day moving average) resistance areas before declining again yesterday. Meanwhile, the relative strength index (RSI) remains below 40, reflecting insufficient buyer interest. On the downside, the first support level is at 1.2308 (May 25th low). A close below this level could open the door to further decline below 1.2300 to 1.2236 (260-day moving average). If the currency pair rises above 1.2400 and 1.2402 and holds steady there, sellers may shift to a wait-and-see approach. In this case, further upside to 1.2472 (14-day moving average) and 1.2539 (Bollinger Bands centerline) may be observed.

Today, it is recommended to go short on the British Pound near 1.2360, with a stop loss at 1.2385 and targets at 1.2280 and 1.2750.

USDJPY

Despite the speculation triggered by the remarks of Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda that the central bank might abandon its ultra-loose monetary policy, the market expects the Bank of Japan to maintain ultra-low interest rates on Friday and assure the market that monetary stimulus policy will not change at least for now. In addition, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is also approaching this week. If the Federal Reserve continues to maintain a hawkish stance on future interest rate prospects, it is likely to stimulate the USD/JPY to continue its attempt to move higher. However, on Tuesday, Japan's Vice Finance Minister, Manabu Kanda, stated that excessive volatility in the Yen is undesirable. Japan will maintain close communication with the U.S. Treasury and take appropriate measures in the foreign exchange market when necessary, without ruling out any options. Signs of possible intervention by the Japanese government are beginning to emerge. Therefore, caution should be exercised to guard against the risk of a turnaround brought about by government interventions in the market.

USD/JPY experienced a rapid decline early last week but found support near the 145.90 low. This led to a swift rebound in the currency pair in the subsequent trading sessions, steadily rising in recent days, and yesterday it reached a recent high of 148.36, seemingly challenging the key resistance near the 148.00 psychological level once again. Since the beginning of this month, USD/JPY has been struggling to break through the 148.00 level. Every effort made by the bulls to break through this upper limit has been met with resistance by the bears, indicating significant pressure in this area. Given this, a similar outcome may occur during the retesting process, but there could be a rebound to 148.80 after the breakthrough, with further potential to rise towards 150.00. If the bears regain control of the market and trigger a meaningful pullback, initial support will be at 145.90 and 146.03 (34-day moving average). If USD/JPY weakens further, attention will shift to 144.44 (this month's low). However, it is worth noting that considering the U.S. Treasury yields at multi-year highs, the bearish trend will face significant resistance.

Today, it is advisable to go long on the U.S. Dollar near 148.00, with a stop loss at 147.70 and targets at 148.80 and 148.90.

EURUSD

Reports on Tuesday suggested that the European Central Bank (ECB) may soon begin discussing how to withdraw some excess liquidity from the banking system, which briefly put slight pressure on the EUR/USD pair. However, the impact on the US dollar is likely to be minimal when the prevailing narrative of the US exception and the more credible message from the Federal Reserve of 'keeping rates higher for longer' comes into play. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders expect the Federal Reserve to stand pat at the upcoming meeting, but the focus will be on the Fed's forward guidance. The market perceives that the Federal Reserve may sound less dovish, but it may require more supportive evidence to push the currently elevated US dollar further upward. The Federal Reserve will hold its rate-setting meeting on Wednesday evening, and ahead of that, the EUR/USD is expected to cautiously maintain narrow-range fluctuations. If the Federal Reserve's forward guidance does indeed lean dovish, precautions should be taken against the risk of the euro rebounding.

The EUR/USD has seen mostly directionless fluctuations for most of this week. Last week, the EUR/USD experienced a significant decline but eventually found support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the 2022 low of 0.9535 to the 2023 high of 1.1275, which is located near 1.0610. While 1.0610 may continue to act as strong support in the short term to prevent further declines in the EUR/USD, breaking below this level could intensify downward pressure, potentially paving the way for the exchange rate to drop further towards the key psychological level of 1.0500 and further towards 1.0405 (50% Fibonacci retracement level from 0.9535 to 1.1275). If the EUR/USD reverses to the upside, initial resistance is observed at 1.0790 (the descending trendline formed since July), and a decisive breakthrough above this level could ignite buying interest in the market, potentially paving the way for a further rise towards the 200-day moving average at 1.0828. In that case, the market's focus would shift to 1.0882 (this month's high).

Today, it is advisable to short the euro near 1.0685, with a stop loss at 1.0710 and targets at 1.0625 and 1.0615.