US Dollar Index

On Thursday, the US dollar index climbed to around 100.20, rising for the third consecutive trading day as optimism about global trade negotiations boosted market sentiment. Investors were optimistic that tariff pressure may have peaked after US President Donald Trump spoke on Wednesday, hinting at possible trade deals with India, Japan and South Korea, and expressing confidence in a possible deal with China. The dollar rose despite the latest data showing that the US economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.3% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, the first negative growth in three years. The contraction was due to a surge in imports and a sharp slowdown in consumer spending. The market now turns its attention to upcoming economic indicators, including Friday's April jobs report, as investors assess the possibility of a broader economic recession. The dollar's gains were strongest against the euro, pound and yen. .

The daily chart shows that the US dollar index is trading around 99.70, up slightly on the day. Over the past seven trading days, the US dollar index has continued to range-bound and trade between 99.00 and 100.33{21-day average}. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is around 44.80, while the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) is turning neutral to bullish. However, the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages all suggest bearish continuation. This confirms additional downward pressure. Resistance levels are located in the 100.33{21-day average}, and 101.00{round mark} areas. As for the downside, the 99.94{April 23 high}, and 100.00{market psychological mark} areas can be watched respectively. Once lost, it will open up further downward space to the 99.50 mark.

Consider shorting the dollar index around 100.32 today, stop loss: 100.43, target: 99.90, 99.80

WTI spot crude oil

WTI spot crude oil On Thursday, WTI crude oil futures traded around $58 a barrel, after falling to a three-week low, supported by a broad rally in U.S. stocks, driven by strong tech company earnings and signs that the Trump administration may ease tariff threats. Oil prices fell more than 2% due to demand concerns and expectations of OPEC+ increasing supply, with Saudi Arabia saying it can tolerate lower prices and may push for increased production at its May 5 meeting. Production growth from non-OPEC countries such as Guyana also brought additional pressure. Despite the bearish market sentiment, geopolitical risks remain, with U.S. lawmakers pushing for tough sanctions on Russia and continuing to crack down on Iranian and Venezuelan oil. On the demand side, weak economic data put pressure, including a contraction in U.S. GDP and China's worst factory recession since 2023. However, positive inventory data showed that U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories fell last week, providing some support for prices.

As trade uncertainty intensifies, the market has different views on the future trend of oil prices. Investors are advised to pay attention to the upcoming economic data and the results of the OPEC+ meeting, and closely observe whether oil prices will break through the current range. In the short term, oil prices may continue to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern. From the daily chart, the current price continues to fluctuate and consolidate at a low level, and the possibility of a breakthrough is small. Oil prices have found some support near $57.66 {April 8 low}, but there is still room for downside. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator remains near 33.50, and the momentum remains bearish, indicating that oil prices may further test $57.66 {April 8 low}, and $54.78 {April 9 low}. On the contrary, if the $60 mark is broken, a short-term rebound to $61.35 {38.2% Fibonacci rebound level of the 71.98 to 55.78 decline band} is expected. The next level will point to the $62.07 {9-day moving average} level.

Consider going long on crude oil near 58.75 today, stop loss: 58.60; target: 60.20; 60.40

Spot gold

Gold fell below $3,260 per ounce to $3,202 on Thursday, only to bounce back above $3,238 to mark its third straight session of losses as easing trade tensions, especially between the United States and China, reduced safe-haven demand. The United States has been in contact with Beijing through various channels, according to China Central Television. In addition, there are reports that the Trump administration is about to announce the first batch of deals that will reduce planned tariffs on certain countries. On Tuesday, President Trump also signed an executive order easing his 25% tariff on automobiles and auto parts. Despite this, gold remains in a strong position, rising more than 5% last month, its fourth consecutive month of gains, driven by safe-haven inflows amid concerns about global trade disruptions and signs of growing strains in the U.S. economy.

The upward trend in gold prices remains, although sellers seem to be gathering momentum as gold has fallen below the recent "bull-bear dividing line" of $2,600 on April 23, but it has not yet broken through $3,200 {round mark}. Gold is currently in a tug-of-war between "policy expectations" and "real interest rates". In the short term, pay attention to the $3,200 support, and if it falls below, you need to guard against technical selling. Breaking through the latter will expose the $3,157 {34-day moving average} level, followed by the $3,100 mark. If the employment data deteriorates significantly (such as the sharp drop in private employment growth shown by ADP), it may strengthen the expectation of rate cuts and promote gold to rebound. Gold prices may take advantage of the momentum to hit the $3,260-3,300 range. If it breaks, it will target the $3,327 {10-day moving average}-$3,353 {this week's high} area level.

Consider going long on gold today before 3,233, stop loss: 3,230; target: 3,360; 3,365

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Thursday. AUD/USD briefly rose after the release of Australia's trade balance data. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a trade surplus of AUD6.9 billion in March, significantly exceeding expectations of AUD3.13 billion and the revised February figure of AUD2.85 billion (revised from AUD2.97 billion). The strong surplus was driven by a 7.6% increase in exports and a 2.2% drop in imports for the month. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures in Australia in early 2025 have dampened market expectations for further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia. U.S. President Trump expressed optimism about the likelihood of a potential trade deal with China in a NewsNation town hall interview on Thursday morning, saying "the probability that we will make a deal is very high." Trump stressed that any agreement with China must meet U.S. conditions. He also mentioned the possibility of future trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan, and pointed to the agreement reached with Ukraine earlier in the day.

On Thursday, the AUD/USD exchange rate traded slightly below 0.6400, with the daily chart maintaining a bullish trend. The technical indicator 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is also comfortably above 54.75, both indicating continued upward momentum. The pair remains around the 9-day simple moving average of 0.6380, and on the upside, the recent four-month high of 0.6449, which was hit on April 29, is an immediate resistance. A break above this level could open the door to the 0.6460 {200-day simple moving average} area, and a break below it points to the five-month high of 0.6515. On the downside, initial support is located at 0.6356, Wednesday's low, followed by the 50-day simple moving average of 0.6302, and 0.6300 {market psychological level}.

Today, we recommend going long on the Australian dollar before 0.6367, stop loss: 0.6355, target: 0.6420, 0.6430

GBP/USD

GBP/USD fell for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.3300 during Thursday's Asian session. The US dollar is strengthening, boosted by comments from US President Trump in a NewsNation town hall interview earlier on Thursday. Trump expressed optimism about a possible trade deal with China, saying "there is a very good chance that we will make a deal." The US dollar index also rose for the third consecutive day, with the dollar's rebound coming as traders lowered their expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 100 basis points this year, following previous economic data that pointed to a weak US economy. Across the Atlantic, the British pound remained under pressure amid an increasingly dovish shift in market sentiment towards the Bank of England. Traders now expect a 25 basis point rate cut at the Bank of England's policy meeting on May 8. Expectations for a rate cut have grown as newly announced US tariffs could reduce global inflationary pressures and curb economic growth in the UK.

From the recent technical trend analysis, GBP/USD may have changed direction and consolidated in the range of 1.3300 to 1.3400 for three days. Sellers continue to accumulate momentum. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator of the daily chart has fallen to a low of 57 in more than three weeks. Although it is still in the positive zone, it has broken through the latest low, suggesting that the momentum is changing. If GBP/USD breaks through the 1.3308 {14-day simple moving average} and the 1.3300 {integer mark} area, it will challenge the 1.3220 {16-day simple moving average}. Breaking through the latter will expose the 1.3200 mark. On the other hand, if the bulls push the exchange rate above 1.3400, it will pave the way for retesting the three-year high of 1.3443.

Today's recommendation is to go long GBP before 1.3266, stop loss: 1.3253, target: 1.3320, 1.3330

USD/JPY

USD/JPY has been trading significantly stronger, surging to the upper end of its recent range as the yen continues to underperform following the Bank of Japan's latest policy meeting. The pair is up 1.76% on the day, approaching the 146.00 area, driven by a renewed divergence between the outlook for US and Japanese monetary policy and new signs of weakness in the US labor market. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at 0.50% and cut its GDP and inflation forecasts for the current and next fiscal years, citing rising external risks and domestic uncertainties. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda struck a cautious tone at the press conference, stressing that inflation momentum could stall and that the outlook lacks the confidence needed for further rate hikes. The Bank of Japan now expects GDP growth of just 0.5% in fiscal 2025, down from 1.1%, and has cut its inflation forecasts. The market interpreted this stance as dovish, with the next rate hike not expected until the end of 2025 at the earliest.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is looking to build its strength above the 143.00 mark and 142.60{14-day simple moving average}. However, any subsequent gains are likely to face strong resistance near the 146-round mark area, followed by the 146.60-146.65 area, and 146.94{50-day moving average}, with the oscillator on the daily chart still in negative territory. Nonetheless, some follow-up buying will pave the way for the continuation of the recent rebound from the multi-month lows and lift the spot price to the next relevant hurdle close to 146.00. The upward trajectory may extend further, allowing the bulls to recapture the psychological 147.00 mark. On the other hand, 145.00 now seems to protect the short-term downside, below which the USD/JPY pair may fall to the 144.00 mark. A successful break above this mark will be seen as a new trigger point for short traders and put the spot price at risk of accelerating its decline to 142.88{Thursday's low}.

Today, we recommend shorting the dollar before 145.65, stop loss: 145.85; target: 144.50, 144.30

EUR/USD

The euro fell slightly to $1.13 in thin trading on the first day of May, after appreciating more than 5% against the dollar in April, as the dollar was supported and optimism increased that trade tensions could ease, with President Trump signaling potential deals with India, Japan and South Korea, and his confidence in reaching a deal with China. Meanwhile, investors digested a slew of recent economic data and looked forward to Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for further insight into the Fed's policy outlook. The U.S. economy unexpectedly fell at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, partly due to a surge in imports ahead of expectations of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. In contrast, the eurozone economy grew by a better-than-expected 0.4%, supported by strong domestic demand. On the inflation front, Germany's headline inflation rate fell to 2.1% in April, although core inflation rose slightly, while France's annual inflation rate remained unchanged at 0.8%.

During the week, EUR/USD was observed to move lower towards the 1.1250 area, with a slight retracement from the earlier highs. Despite the weak intraday performance, the pair still maintains a bullish outlook, mainly supported by the positioning of its moving averages. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) provide a more cautious tone, suggesting that the current pullback may be a healthy correction in the broader trend. The 21-day simple moving average continues to provide immediate support at 1.1256, while both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages are trending up, strengthening the long-term bullish thesis. The 1.1200 {round number mark} also validates the upward structure. On the upside, resistance is limited around 1.1354, with additional obstacles located at 1.1399 {Wednesday's high} and 1.1400 {round number mark}. The broader technical framework still favors a bullish extension to 1.1425 {this week's high}.

Today it is recommended to go long on Euro before 1.1275, stop loss: 1.1260, target: 1.1320, 1.1330.

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