US Dollar Index

The US dollar index rose to above 98.58 before the end of last week, rebounding from multi-year lows, and then retreated slightly to close around 98.25, down 1.08% for the week. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven demand for safe-haven assets. The move came after Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran, targeting Tehran's nuclear program and promising to continue the action until the threat is eliminated. US officials confirmed that the United States was not involved in or supported the strike. The dollar fell to a more than three-year low of 97.60 on Thursday, pressured by increased uncertainty about President Trump's tough trade stance, including renewed threats to impose unilateral tariffs. Lower-than-expected consumer and producer inflation data also put additional downward pressure on the dollar, which strengthened market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. Looking ahead, investors are awaiting the University of Michigan consumer confidence report for June, which may provide insights into how evolving tariff policies affect household confidence.

The US dollar index rebounded to a high near 98.58 in early European trading last weekend, ending a continuous decline to a three-year low of 97.60 before rebounding. Risk aversion caused by the increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided some support to the US dollar. According to the daily chart, the bearish bias of the US dollar index remains valid as the index remains below the key 50-day simple moving average of 99.83 and 100.00 {market psychological level}. In addition, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is below 40.00, supporting the momentum of sellers in the short term. The initial support level of the US dollar index is 97.60 {Thursday's low}, while the key support level is located in the 97.22 {March 22, 2022 low}-97.00 {round number} area. A break above this level may expose 96.63, the low of March 1, 2022. On the other hand, once the US dollar index fights back, 98.98{14-day simple moving average}, and 99,00{round mark} serve as immediate resistance for the US dollar index. Additional upward filters are located at the 50-day simple moving average of 99.83, and 100.00{market psychological mark} area levels.

Today, you can consider going long on the US dollar index around 98.05, stop loss: 97.90, target: 98.50, 98.70

WTI spot crude oil

In the early morning of last weekend, a shocking news swept the world: Israel launched a preemptive air strike on Iran, targeting Iran's nuclear program and military facilities. This action not only triggered a sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East, but also caused crude oil prices to soar instantly, and global financial markets fell into violent fluctuations. WTI crude oil once soared 9.2%, hitting a new high since February 3 to $74.74 per barrel; Brent crude oil once soared 7.2%, hitting a new high since April 2 to $75.50 per barrel. Market insiders pointed out that as the core area of ​​global crude oil supply, any escalation of conflict in the Middle East may lead to supply disruptions and push up oil prices. Any conflict in the Middle East may pose a direct threat to global crude oil supply, especially Iran's status as an important oil producer. If the conflict leads to obstruction of Iran's crude oil exports, oil prices may rise further. However, it should be noted that the uncertainty of global economic recovery may limit the long-term rise in oil prices. Investors need to pay close attention to the subsequent development of the situation and OPEC+'s response measures.

The "violent rise" of the WTI crude oil market last week was not accidental - the suddenness of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the strategic position of the Strait of Hormuz, and the fragile balance of global crude oil supply and demand have jointly woven this "rising network". What needs to be answered is: Is this wave of rise a "pulse-like emotional catharsis" or a "trend reversal starting point"? What signals will trigger a callback in the future? Oil prices continued to fluctuate and rise in a bullish pattern. From the daily chart, it is currently closed with a long upper shadow. The price has successfully broken through $68.26 {200-day simple moving average} and $70.00 {market psychological barrier}, and has risen to $71.50 {300-day simple moving average}, and then the strong resistance area of ​​$73.37 (February 11 high). After hitting the resistance of 74.74, the highest since the beginning of the year, the price has begun to correct downward. At present, the support level below is the psychological area of ​​$70.00. As long as the oil price continues to fall below $68.26 {200-day simple moving average}, it will always face the possibility of a pullback to $67.07 {50.0% Fibonacci rebound from $79.37 to $54.78}. The upward resistance can be focused on $73.37 (February 11 high), and $73.56 {76.4% Fibonacci rebound}, and oil prices may retest the 74.74 resistance level, which is the highest since the beginning of the year.

Today, you can consider going long on WTI crude oil around 71.50, stop loss: 71.40, target: 75.00, 76.00

Spot Gold

Gold prices rose more than 1% over the weekend, breaking through $3,420 and approaching the record high of $3,446.60 set in April, as investors sought safety amid escalating geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty. The rally came after Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran, significantly heightening market fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East. The action not only triggered a sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East, but also caused gold prices to surge instantly, sending global financial markets into a state of volatility. After the incident, safe-haven asset gold also saw explosive gains. Investors are concerned about the global economic uncertainty that the Middle East conflict may cause, and have flocked to safe-haven assets such as gold. Market sentiment was extremely tense as news of Israel's strike on Iran broke. Details on the scale and impact of the attack are still unclear, and the market's initial reaction may be just the tip of the iceberg. Iran's retaliatory actions and the attitude of the international community will be key factors influencing market trends in the coming days.

From a technical perspective, last week, affected by the political situation in the Middle East, Gold prices surged to $3,446.60, just below the all-time high of $3,500.10 in April. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart turned bullish, indicating that gold prices may continue their upward trend, validating the positive short-term outlook for gold prices. Therefore, the possibility of further challenges to $3.480 and the psychological level of $3,500 hit in April looks quite obvious. If it can be decisively broken, it will be seen as a new trigger point for bullish traders to $3,525 {upper line of the ascending channel} level. On the other hand, any corrective pullback may now be seen as a buying opportunity and find considerable support around the round mark of $3,400 to $3,380 {last Friday's low}. However, if there is some follow-through selling below the $3,380 area, it may pave the way for a further decline, targeting $3,356 {9-day simple moving average} and then $3,340 {lower line of the ascending channel} - 3,342 USD {14-day simple moving average} area level.

Today, consider going long on gold around 3,430, stop loss: 3,425, target: 3,480, 3,490

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar pared some of its losses in the early risk-off wave triggered by the news that Israel bombed Iranian nuclear facilities and military bases, causing risk-sensitive assets such as the Australian dollar to fall sharply, In pre-weekend trading, the AUD/USD pair depreciated by nearly 1%, falling to a one-week low of 0.6465. Later on, the pair tried to recover the lost ground, but the upside attempt was limited by the previous support level of the 0.6500 area. The risk of conflict in the Middle East added new uncertainty to the already turbulent global economic outlook. The US-China trade deal failed to convince investors earlier last week, while Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on all partners if no agreement was reached by July 9 - an extremely negative scenario for the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. On the macroeconomic front, Australian consumer inflation expectations jumped to 5% in June, up from 4.1% in May, delaying hopes of a rate cut in July. On the other hand, weak inflation data in the US confirmed that the impact of tariffs on prices has not yet been seen and kept the market hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

AUD/USD was affected by the risk of conflict in the Middle East before the weekend, The weekly low of 0.6456 was once seen. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the bullish bias weakened as the pair fell below the lower line of the upward channel at 0.6490. Currently, the pair is trading below the 9-day simple moving average of 0.6501 and the 0.6500 {market psychological level}, indicating that short-term price momentum is weakening. However, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is still slightly above 50, indicating that the bullish bias is still there. On the downside, AUD/USD may further test the 50-day simple moving average of 0.6402 and the 0.6400 {round number level} area. A break below this level may weaken the medium-term price momentum and exert downward pressure on the pair, causing it to hover around the 0.6359 {89-day simple moving average} and 0.6356 {May 12 low} area. On the other hand, if AUD/USD can stay above the key resistance of 0.6500, The next level is the high of 0.6546 on June 11. Further gains could prompt the pair to explore the 0.6600 {round mark} level.

Consider shorting the AUD near 0.6495 today, Stop Loss: 0.6510, Target: 0.6450 , 0.6440

GBP/USD

The British pound has had a strong third week against the US dollar, with the GBP/USD pair refreshing a 39-month high above 1.3600. After an upward consolidation phase in the first half of the week, it regained momentum in the second half, hitting its highest level since February 2022 near 1.3633.
The volatile price action earlier was mainly attributed to the range-bound movement of the US dollar as the market evaluated the progress of the US-China trade talks. After two days of talks in London, the United States and China decided to relax export controls, including those on rare earths, and agreed on a framework to maintain the tariff truce. The US dollar rose briefly but fell back amid the lack of specific details on the trade framework to the red zone. Escalating tensions in the Middle East have led investors to move to safe-haven assets on fears of a wider conflict. Meanwhile, the pound continues to benefit from broad dollar weakness, renewed U.S. tariff threats and signs of slowing U.S. inflation.

The daily chart shows that despite the GBP/USD pullback from multi-year highs of 1.3633, the positive outlook remains intact. Last week's bull flag confirmation continues to support the bullish bias. Enhancing the bullish potential is that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator on the daily chart, is firmly above the mid-line and is currently approaching 58. The bullish crossover of the 100-day and 200-day simple moving averages continues to favor buyers. The pair must find acceptance above 1.3600 on a daily close to challenge 1.3633 {last week's high}, 1.3643 {February 2022 high}. The next strong resistance is at the 1.3700 round number mark. Above this, new buying interest may emerge, opening the door for the January 2022 high of 1.3749. On the contrary, another rejection at the 1.3600 resistance level may trigger a new round of correction towards the 20-day simple moving average of 1.3506, and 1.3500 {market psychological level}. Sellers will challenge the high of April 28 at 1.3445. If the downtrend accelerates, the 34-day simple moving average at 1.3418 may save buyers.

Consider shorting GBP around 1.3578 today, stop loss: 1.3590, target: 1.3510, 1.3500

USD/JPY

The yen appreciated to below 143 yen per dollar before the end of last week, rising for the third consecutive trading day as escalating geopolitical risks boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The move came after tensions in the Middle East escalated sharply after Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran, targeting its nuclear infrastructure. Israeli officials vowed to continue the action until the threat is eliminated, triggering risk aversion in global markets. Secondly, investors remained nervous amid continued uncertainty over U.S. President Trump's trade policy. This has exacerbated broader market uncertainty. In addition, the sharp escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has curbed investors' placement in risky assets. Meanwhile, signs of cooling U.S. inflation reaffirmed market bets that the Federal Reserve will further reduce borrowing costs in 2025. This could curb the dollar's rebound and benefit the low-yielding yen, so be cautious before making bullish bets on USD/JPY. On the domestic front, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament earlier this week that the central bank is ready to raise interest rates again - provided there is enough confidence that underlying inflation is sustainably approaching its 2% target.

From a technical perspective, the U.S. dollar /JPY failed to find support above the psychological level of 145.00 last week and the subsequent decline favors USD/JPY bears, a view also supported by the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) in the negative zone on the daily chart. However, before positioning for a deeper decline, it is still wise to wait for further selling at the 142.78 {last Friday's low} and 143.00 {round number} area levels. The spot price may fall further to the 142.00 round number mark, towards the intermediate support level of 141.65, and finally below 141.00. On the other hand, a break above the 144.17 {9-day simple moving average} area of ​​​​last Friday's high may lead to a rebound at the 145.00 round number mark, Strong resistance is encountered near the 145.02{60-day simple moving average} area. A sustained strong break above the latter could trigger short-term covering and take the USD/JPY pair to highs in the 146.29{May 29 high} area.

Consider going long USD near 144.00 today, Stop Loss: 143.80, Target: 145.00, 145.20

EUR/USD

The euro fell to around $1.1550 after hitting a three-and-a-half-year high of $1.1632 on June 12, as global markets were uneasy over escalating tensions in the Middle East. Concerns of a wider conflict were raised as Israel launched attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and key personnel. Israel said Iran's nuclear program was an existential threat and vowed to continue its actions. Iran responded by launching hundreds of drones and warning of further retaliation. On the monetary policy front, the euro was supported by different signals from the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. Recent comments from the ECB reinforced market expectations that it would pause its easing policy to assess the impact of new US tariffs. Meanwhile, the dollar weakened on weak US inflation data and escalating trade tensions, sparking speculation that the Fed could cut interest rates as early as September.

The long-term technical outlook suggests higher highs for EUR/USD despite the correction. On the daily chart, the bullish trend remains solid, and buyers are willing to add to positions on pullbacks despite the possibility of a corrective decline. The technical indicator 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has slipped slightly but remains above 60.00, reflecting the latest lower highs and mild intraday trend. Meanwhile, EUR/USD is developing above all bullish moving averages, with the 20-day simple moving average providing relevant short-term support around 1.1388. Immediate support is located at 1.1488 {Friday's low}, followed by the mentioned 1.1388 {20-day simple moving average} area. Below this, the pair may test the 1.1300 round number before rebounding. On the other hand, the overall trend of EUR/USD remains positive. The euro may still retest the 1.1600 {round number}, and. 1.1615 {Friday's high}. Breaking this level, the euro may retest the 1.1631 {June 12} level.

Today, you can consider shorting the Euro around 1.1558, stop loss: 1.1570, target: 1.1510, 1.1500

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