US Dollar Index

The US Dollar Index fell to around 99.00 on Monday, retreating from the gains of the previous session, as investors prepare for a busy week of key economic data and trade developments. Market sentiment was influenced by new hopes for progress in US-China trade relations, with President Trump announcing that officials from both countries will meet in London later today, following his recent phone conversation with Chinese President Xi Jinping. On the data front, the market is awaiting several important economic releases. The US dollar strengthened on Friday as the May jobs report showed slightly stronger-than-expected job growth, although private employment, unemployment claims and services data pointed to some weakness in the economy.

The US Dollar Index is currently retracing recent gains from the previous session, trading around 99.00 during the Asian session on Monday. The bearish bias appears to persist, and technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the index remains within a descending channel. Short-term price momentum is weak as the US Dollar Index remains below its 20-day simple moving average of 99.70. In addition, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is below the 45 level, indicating a bearish outlook. On the downside, aim for 98.66, and 98.32 {last Friday and Thursday lows, respectively}. Then there is 97.91, which is the lowest level since March 2022, recorded on April 21, and the lower line of the downward channel, which is around 97.70. The US dollar index finds immediate resistance at the 20-day simple moving average at 99.70. A break above this level may improve short-term price momentum and support the market psychological level of 100.00 for the US dollar index.

Consider shorting the US Dollar Index around 99.22 today, stop loss: 99.35, target: 98.70, 98.60

WTI spot crude oil

WTI crude oil traded around $64.50 a barrel on Monday, after a week of surges on renewed optimism about US-China talks, which could ease global oil demand pressured by tariffs. Negotiators from both sides will hold a new round of talks in London later today, following a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping last Thursday. In addition, the US jobs report for May showed the fundamental resilience of the job market, easing concerns that a slowing economy could curb demand. On the geopolitical front, Russia launched a large-scale drone and missile attack on Kiev and other parts of Ukraine, following a raid on a Russian air base. These hostile actions increase the possibility of long-term sanctions on Russian energy exports, threatening to further restrict global supply and further support crude oil prices.

On the daily chart, WTI crude oil has broken through the recent major resistance for the first time, namely the key resistance level of $64.00 {market psychological barrier}, and the level near the key resistance level of $64.04 {May 21 high} area, which will become a key position closely watched by the market. If it can hold this level, oil prices may start a new round of upside to the 89-day simple moving average of $65.13, breaking through the level to open the way to $66.58 {April 4 high}. At the lower level of $63.28 {65-day simple moving average}, it is the first support level, followed by $61.92 {50-day simple moving average}, while the key $60.00 {market psychological barrier} is the main support level. As long as oil prices remain above this level, the market may still belong to the category of "buy on dips".

Consider going long on WTI crude oil near 64.33 today, stop loss: 64.10, target: 65.80, 66.20

Spot gold

Gold prices stabilized around $3,320 an ounce on Monday after two days of decline as investors await the second round of U.S.-China trade talks. Senior negotiators from Washington and Beijing met in London following Thursday's much-anticipated call between President Trump and President Xi Jinping, raising hopes that the two largest economies can make progress on a series of disputes that have roiled markets this year. Separately, a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report released on Friday eased some concerns about a recession in the country and dampened hopes of an upcoming Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which also put downward pressure on gold. However, the metal's losses may be limited by the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia launched a large-scale drone and missile attack on Kiev and other parts of Ukraine early Friday, days after Ukraine launched a raid on a Russian air base.

Gold prices fell to a near one-week low of $2.993 at the beginning of the week and then consolidated, temporarily staying above 3,300 {market psychological level}, which is seen as a key support level. If it breaks, it may open the way to test the 3,260 {lower rail support line of the daily equilateral triangle} and the 3,265 {50-day moving average} area. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator of the daily chart turned bearish, indicating that gold prices may continue their decline; however, the overall trend is still biased towards bulls. If gold stays above 3,300, this may pave the way for testing the $3,353 {upper rail resistance line of the equilateral triangle}, and the $3,350.00 {May 27 high} area, and then the peak of $3,403.50 last week. On the other hand, if gold falls below $3,300, sellers may cause gold to fall sharply, testing the $3,260 area, and the $3,265 area, followed by the $3,200 round number support level.

Today, consider going long on gold around $3,320, stop loss: $3,315, target: $3,345, $3,350.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose slightly against the US dollar on Monday, retracing the $0.6500 mark and recovering the losses of the previous trading day. Last week's stronger-than-expected US employment data raised the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the next two monetary policy meetings. The Australian dollar/US dollar remained strong after the release of key economic data from China. China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that the consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.1% year-on-year in May, following a 0.1% decline in April. China's producer price index (PPI) continued to weaken, falling 3.3% year-on-year in May, following a 2.7% drop in April. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunt warned that "higher US tariffs will be a drag on the global economy," and warned that higher uncertainty could curb investment, output and employment in Australia.

AUD/USD traded near 0.6500 on Monday. Technical analysis on the daily chart shows that the pair remains within the uptrend and continues to be bullish. In addition, AUD/USD remains above the 20-day simple moving average of 0.6458, indicating strong short-term price momentum. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is also above 55, suggesting a bullish outlook. The pair may find immediate resistance at the seven-month high of 0.6538 reached on June 5. A break above this level may prompt the pair to explore the high of November 12 last year, around 0.6581, and 0.6600 {round mark}. On the downside, the main support is seen at 0.6458, the 20-day simple moving average. A break below this key support zone could weaken the bullish bias and lead AUD/USD to test the 0.6400 round mark.

Consider going long on AUD around 0.6500 today, Stop Loss: 0.6490, Target: 0.6550 , 0.6560

GBP/USD

GBP/USD has gained slightly during the Monday session and now appears to have stopped its correction decline in the 1.3615 area, the highest level since February 2022, which was touched last week. However, the rebound lacks bullish momentum and the spot price is currently trading in the 1.3550-1.3555 area. The failure of the US dollar to capitalize on the upward momentum from the upbeat US jobs data on Friday is seen as a key factor supporting the GBP/USD pair. Moreover, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that the central bank will take a gradual and cautious approach to rate cuts amid trade uncertainties, which provides a tailwind for the pair. Meanwhile, a stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls report dampened hopes of an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. This made dollar bears hesitant in making new bets and limited the upside for the GBP/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is still trending upwards and trading above the 20-day simple moving average at 1.3465. If this level holds, the direction of the pair could pick up in the short term after forming a series of higher highs and lower lows, signaling further gains. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is ahead at 60, suggesting that buyers are entering the market. From a technical perspective, if GBP/USD stays above 1.3500 {a psychological level in the market}, it will open the door to a rally towards today's high of 1.3585 {last Friday's high}, followed by the year-to-date high of 1.3615. On the other hand, a daily close below 1.3500 could lead to a fall towards the 20-day simple moving average of 1.3465, and the April 28 high turned support at 1.3445, followed by the round number of 1.3400.

Consider going long on GBP around 1.3535 today, stop loss: 1.3520, target: 1.3590, 1.3600

USD/JPY

The yen appreciated above 144.5 against the dollar on Monday, rebounding from two days of losses as revised data showed that Japan's first-quarter gross domestic product was flat, an improvement from the previous estimate of a 0.2% contraction. Despite the upward revision, the result still reflects a sharp deceleration from the 0.6% growth in the previous quarter. Separately, Japan's current account surplus narrowed in April, missing market expectations, adding a complication to the economic outlook. Last week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that the central bank stands ready to raise interest rates if economic and inflation forecasts materialize, underscoring the view of a gradual but steady path of rate hikes. On the external front, market participants also turned their attention to the upcoming US-China trade talks, with officials from both sides scheduled to meet in London later today.

From a technical perspective, a breakout from the multi-day trading range before the weekend was seen as a key trigger for USD/JPY bulls. However, neutral oscillators on the daily chart make it prudent to wait for further buying above the 145.00 psychological mark or the one-week high of 105.09 hit last Friday. The spot price could climb to the 145.55-145.60 horizontal barrier, in turn, towards the 146.00 round number mark and the May 29 high, around the 146.25-146.30 area. On the other hand, the resistance of the trading range is around the 144.00 round number mark, which now seems to protect the short-term downside. However, a break below this level could trigger some technical selling and drag USD/JPY back to the 143.50-143.40 area, heading towards the 143.00 mark and the next relevant support level of 142.70-142.65.

Consider shorting USD around 144.72 today, stop loss: 144.95, target: 143.30, 143.00

EUR/USD

The euro rebounded above $1.14, approaching the six-week high of $1.149 hit on June 5, as investors closely watched the progress of US-China trade talks and looked forward to important speeches from ECB officials to understand the ECB's policy outlook. Senior US and Chinese negotiators met in London today, aiming to build on the preliminary agreement in Geneva last month, and the discussions are likely to focus on rare earth minerals and advanced technologies. On the currency front, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest level since November 2022, and lowered its inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026. However, the bank also hinted that it may be nearing the end of the current easing cycle, contrary to previous expectations.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD remains above all simple moving averages {including: 20; 100; and 200-day} for continued gains. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain near overbought territory with a slight upward trend. The daily chart of the EUR/USD pair shows that bullish momentum has weakened somewhat, but buyers remain in control. The slightly bullish 20-day simple moving average provides support around 1.1321, while the rising 100-day is well above the 200-day simple moving average. Finally, technical indicators are slightly downside but still above their midlines, suggesting limited selling pressure. 1.1495 {last week's high}, and 1.1500 {market psychological barrier} area provide resistance before 1.1574 {April 21 high}. After breaking through, the rebound may continue to develop towards the 1.1600 round mark. As for the downside, first pay attention to the 1.1400 round mark, while the 20-day simple moving average at 1.1321 provides short-term support before the 1.1300 mark.

Today, you can consider going long on the euro near 1.1408, stop loss: 1.1400, target: 1.1460, 1.1470

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