U.S. Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index climbed to nearly 99.90 on Wednesday, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains, as traders reacted to the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision. As expected, the Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, but revised its economic outlook, noting that recent data suggest a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year. This contrasts with its previous assessment that growth was proceeding “at a solid pace.”

Notably, two Fed governors voted in favor of a rate cut—marking the first such dissent from two members since 1993—fueling market expectations of a potential rate cut later this year. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3% in Q2 2025, beating the forecast of 2.4%. Additionally, the ADP report showed stronger-than-expected job creation in July, with 104,000 new jobs added. The dollar traded mostly higher against the euro and the Swiss franc.

As risk premiums fade and trade tensions ease through recent agreements, the dollar has become increasingly sensitive to interest rate differentials and underlying fundamentals. Since the start of the week, the index has extended its bullish momentum, currently trading near 99.90. Earlier, it hit a one-month high of 99.98, successfully retesting the upper boundary of a descending wedge pattern—broken earlier this month—before continuing its rally.

This upward move is supported by a solid hold above the 98.00 level, which now serves as immediate support, followed by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) around 99.37. On the other hand, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to rise, indicating stronger buying momentum with room for further gains before any potential pullback. The first resistance level is at the key psychological mark of 100.00, followed by the 120-day SMA at 100.87.

WTI Spot Crude Oil

WTI crude climbed above $70 per barrel on Wednesday, holding near a five-week high, supported by supply concerns as President Trump pressed Russia to accelerate a resolution to the Ukraine conflict. Trump issued Moscow a 10-day ultimatum to deliver a satisfactory solution or face consequences, including a 100% secondary tariff on countries continuing to trade with Russia. These measures could significantly disrupt the oil market, as Russia’s key crude buyers—many of them major U.S. trading partners—may cut or halt purchases due to mounting compliance risks.

Adding to the upside, the U.S. and EU reached a trade agreement that, while imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods, avoided a broader trade war that could have affected one-third of global trade and weighed on fuel demand. On the downside, prices faced some pressure after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an unexpected 7.7 million barrel increase in crude inventories, defying expectations for a 2 million barrel drawdown.

From a technical perspective, WTI briefly hit a one-month high of $70.05 earlier this week before consolidating, with traders closely watching whether it can hold above the $70 psychological level, a key pivot between bullish and bearish sentiment. The daily chart shows a moderate upward trend, with prices holding above the 200-day moving average (MA) at $67.71, indicating sustained bullish momentum. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near 62.85, below overbought levels, suggesting further upside potential.

If WTI breaks above the key resistance at $69.38 (Wednesday’s high), it could open the path toward the $70 psychological level and potentially $71.98 (April 2 high). Conversely, a drop below $68.69 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement from $76.74 to $63.72) could trigger sideways consolidation or a pullback toward the 200-day MA at $67.71.

Overall, the combination of technicals and geopolitical factors continues to support a bullish bias for oil.

Spot Gold

Gold fell below $3,300 per ounce on Wednesday, approaching a one-month low, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, defying President Trump’s calls for a rate cut. The decision included two dissenting votes in favor of cutting rates but came with a more cautious tone, highlighting heightened uncertainty and slowing economic growth. A stronger U.S. dollar added further pressure on bullion as investors pushed back expectations for rate cuts later this year.

Typically, gold benefits from lower interest rates and rising uncertainty; however, the metal faced additional headwinds from U.S. Q2 GDP data, which showed stronger-than-expected growth despite slowing investment and consumption. Meanwhile, the Fed noted that new White House tariffs—set to take effect Friday—could fuel inflation. On the trade front, the U.S. raised tariffs on Brazil and India and signaled potential adjustments to existing agreements with the EU and China.

From a technical standpoint, gold bulls still hold a slight advantage but are gradually losing momentum. The next upside target for buyers is a close above $3,451.70 (July high), a key resistance level. For bears, the immediate downside target is a break below $3,250.50 (June low), a critical support zone.

The MACD indicator shows the fast line (DIFF) at 2.77 and the slow line (DEA) at 7.22, with both lines converging near the zero axis. The MACD histogram remains in negative territory at -8.90, suggesting that bearish momentum has yet to significantly ease. Meanwhile, the RSI sits at 40.22, in a neutral-to-weak zone; a further drop below 40 would signal accelerating selling pressure.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar fell sharply against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, extending its losses for a fourth straight session, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. The decision was not unanimous, as Fed officials Waller and Bowman—who had signaled their stance before the blackout period—voted in favor of a 25-basis-point rate cut. At the time of writing, AUD/USD was trading around 0.6448, down 0.76%.

In its latest policy statement, the Fed noted that economic activity had slowed in the first half of the year, while unemployment remained low and inflation was described as “somewhat elevated.” Policymakers reiterated their commitment to achieving maximum employment and bringing inflation back to the 2% target while emphasizing that “uncertainty around the economic outlook remains high.” The Fed also confirmed it would continue reducing its holdings of Treasuries, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities.

In reaction to the Fed’s decision, AUD/USD fluctuated within the 0.6425–0.6440 range, capped by resistance at the 0.6500 psychological level and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6512. A dovish tone from Fed Chair Powell in his Q&A session could drive the pair higher. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 40, signaling a bearish outlook. Furthermore, the pair remains below the key psychological level of 0.6500, indicating weak short-term momentum.

On the downside, a hawkish reaction would open the door for a retest of Wednesday’s low at 0.6425, followed by 0.6400 and the 200-day SMA at 0.6390.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD fell to a more than two-month low of 1.3227 following the Federal Reserve’s latest rate decision. As widely expected, the Fed left rates unchanged on Wednesday. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that inflation risks remain a concern for policymakers, signaling that lingering price pressures limit the likelihood of additional rate cuts for the rest of the year. Powell tempered expectations for immediate easing, stating that while progress has been made on inflation, price stickiness persists. Fed officials are expected to wait for two more rounds of inflation and labor data before deciding on a potential rate cut in September, dampening hopes for near-term easing.

From a daily chart perspective, the pair remains neutral to slightly bearish. After briefly touching its two-month low of 1.3227, buyers stepped in, leading to a modest rebound. However, momentum remains weak, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 31.50, indicating oversold conditions.

If GBP/USD closes below the 1.3200 psychological level, it could pave the way for a retest of 1.3150 (134-day SMA), with a break targeting the 1.3100 level. On the upside, buyers need to reclaim 1.3300 to regain control, which would open the door toward 1.3335 (100-day SMA) and ultimately 1.3400.

USD/JPY

The yen weakened to 149.55 against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, its lowest level since April, as the dollar strengthened following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.5%. The 9–2 vote included dissent from two governors who supported a rate cut, citing slowing inflation and signs of a weaker labor market.

During the regular press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that no decision had been made for September, while the Fed’s outlook acknowledged slower growth in the first half of the year, a shift from its previous “solid” assessment. Investors are also weighing the outcome of the U.S.–China trade talks in Stockholm, which failed to extend the tariff truce.

Domestically, attention is turning to the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision, where rates are expected to remain unchanged, though inflation forecasts may be revised higher. Meanwhile, political uncertainty in Japan persists, with rising calls for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation, though he has pledged to remain in office.

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY’s slide to 149.55 has brought it near its lowest level since April. Any further decline could find notable support in the 147.75–147.70 range. A break below this zone may open the door to 147.26 (134-day SMA) and the 147.00 psychological level, which coincides with last week’s swing low. A decisive break lower would likely shift the short-term bias to the downside.

On the upside, the 150.00 psychological level now serves as immediate resistance, followed by 150.50 (April 2 high) and 151.21 (March 28 high). A sustained break above these levels could trigger fresh buying momentum and pave the way toward the 153.00 level.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD extended its losses during the North American session after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left rates unchanged in a split decision, with two policymakers voting in favor of a 25-basis-point rate cut. The pair slid to near a six-week low around 1.1400, posting a negative performance for the day.

In its statement, the Fed noted that economic activity slowed in the first half of the year, while unemployment remained low and inflation was described as “somewhat elevated.” Policymakers reaffirmed their commitment to achieving maximum employment and returning inflation to the 2% target, while also acknowledging that “uncertainty around the economic outlook remains high.” The Fed also confirmed it will continue reducing its holdings of Treasuries, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is currently consolidating in the 1.1400–1.1420 range as traders await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. The pair is down more than 1.2% on the day. Immediate resistance lies at 1.1482 (75-day SMA), followed by 1.1500 (psychological level). A further push higher could target 1.1574 (Wednesday’s high).

On the downside, a break below 1.1401 (Wednesday’s low) and the 1.1400 psychological level would expose the 1.1347 area (100-day SMA) as the next key support zone.

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