Last week, investors assessed hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and anticipated key economic data this week for more insights into the monetary policy path. Powell reiterated a hawkish stance at an IMF expert panel meeting, stating that the Fed would "proceed cautiously" and would not hesitate to raise interest rates if deemed appropriate. Following Powell's speech, the US dollar index responded with a significant jump, rising by 0.70% to 105.80. With several critical risk events this week, the US dollar faces an important week ahead. Investors need to pay attention to major US data, including CPI and Fed speeches. Additionally, the imminent threat of a US government shutdown should also be monitored. Based on last week's trends, the US dollar may potentially experience a broad retracement.

The international settlement price of oil fell by over 4% last week, marking the third consecutive weekly decline. This was driven by increased concerns about global demand and a reduction in the risk premium related to the Israel-Palestine conflict. Meanwhile, Iraq expressed support for OPEC+ oil production cuts ahead of a meeting in two weeks, and some speculators covered substantial short positions over the weekend. WTI steadily climbed for most of last Friday, closing above $77 per barrel with a 2.3% increase. Concerns about weakening demand and increasing supply are pushing oil prices into a long-term downward trend.

Since early October, with rising risks from the Israel-Palestine conflict, gold prices plummeted by 3.25% last week to nearly a three-week low of $1933. Bears took strong actions last week, indicating a shift in trend, and this week may see another test of $1900 per ounce or even lower. The current support for spot gold is around $1934.80 per ounce, near the 200-day moving average and the 38.2% retracement level of the rebound from 1810 to 2009. Silver also fell by 4.45% last week to $22.268, marking the largest weekly decline since the week of September 25.

Last week, against a backdrop of calm economic indicators and no alarming statements from Fed officials, the US stock market rallied strongly as global risk sentiment improved. All three major indices recovered from the previous week's losses. By the closing, the S&P 500 rose by 1.56% to 4415.24 points, accumulating a 1.31% increase for the week; the Nasdaq index increased by 2.05% to 13798.11 points, accumulating a 2.37% increase for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.15% to 34283.1 points, accumulating a 0.65% increase for the week.

Powell, at an International Monetary Fund event, stated that officials would not hesitate to tighten monetary policy if necessary. Following significant yield declines in recent weeks, Powell's speech led to a surge in US Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields dropped by around 5 basis points, while the 2-year Treasury yield surpassed 5%. A day earlier, Powell's remarks caused the index to rise by over 10 basis points. Weak demand at Treasury auctions on Thursday boosted yields, but soft sales of 30-year bonds dampened market sentiment, sparking concerns among investors about the market's capacity to absorb new debt.

Outlook for the Week

Since the last Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, market sentiment has been steadily improving until a "cold wave" last Thursday brought investors back to reality. In the upcoming week, in addition to the imminent threat of a U.S. government shutdown crisis, global markets will face a series of significant political events and important economic data. For Chinese investors, well-known internet companies are set to release their financial reports.

The most important event is the announcement from the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Friday evening, stating that, in response to an invitation from U.S. President Biden, President Xi Jinping will attend the U.S.-China summit in San Francisco from November 14 to 17 and will also attend the 30th APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting.

Returning to the economy, this week is exceptionally busy. According to the schedule, the U.S. will sequentially disclose CPI, PPI, and retail sales data. It is well known that the Federal Reserve's firm stance on "the end of rate hikes" is based on waiting for a clear signal of sustained inflation decline. The U.S. core inflation rate for September has declined for the sixth consecutive month to 4.1%, and market expectations are that October will maintain this level. The nominal inflation rate rebounded in September, but market expectations are that it will fall to 3.3% in October. In addition, U.S. retail data and financial reports from major retailers will enrich the market's understanding of the current state of the U.S. economy.

This week also provides a potential window for China to release economic data. According to past practices, monthly data such as social financing and electricity consumption are generally released in mid-month.

In other countries and regions, this week will see CPI data from the UK and Eurozone countries, as well as Japan's preliminary GDP for the third quarter. It is worth noting that the market currently expects a 0.6% decline in Japan's GDP annual rate for the third quarter, not only a significant reversal from the 4.8% growth in the second quarter but also the first economic contraction in Japan since the third quarter of last year, making policy decisions for the Bank of Japan more complicated.

In terms of U.S. stock market earnings, investors will welcome a day of concentrated financial reports from Chinese concept stocks next week. Well-known companies such as Tencent, Alibaba, JD.com, and NetEase will release their financial reports. Aside from the numbers in the reports, this is also an opportunity for company executives to discuss the current situation and future prospects, such as the status of the "Double Eleven" shopping season, Alibaba's IPO progress after the "1+6+N" organizational transformation, and cooperation between Tencent and META regarding VR devices – all of which are hot topics in the capital markets.

On a side note, the deadline for the U.S. government shutdown is next Friday (November 17). As the newly appointed Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, takes office, and with the date for any new agreements approaching, the market may become increasingly anxious.

Overview of Key Events This Week (Beijing Time):

Important: The 2023 APEC meeting will be held in San Francisco from November 11 to 17; the imminent threat of a U.S. government shutdown should also be monitored.

Monday (November 13): China may release social financing data for October.

Tuesday (November 14): Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for November, U.S. CPI for October, IEA monthly crude oil market report.

Wednesday (November 15): National Bureau of Statistics press conference on the national economic situation, MSCI releases the November 2023 index review report, U.S. PPI for October, U.S. retail sales for October, Japan's preliminary GDP for the third quarter.

Thursday (November 16): National Bureau of Statistics releases the monthly report on housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech.

Friday (November 17): Eurozone CPI for October, Hang Seng Index Company announces the results of the third-quarter review of the Hang Seng Index series for 2023.

U.S. Dollar Index:

The U.S. dollar is expected to intermittently find support on dips.

The U.S. Dollar Index continued its ascent last week, extending the rebound from the previous week towards the resistance level near 106.00. In fact, the optimism around the U.S. dollar seems to have gained support from the cautious tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell during the Q&A session last week. Chairman Powell stated that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to further raise the benchmark interest rate, citing evidence that inflation pressures are gradually easing. While he did not rule out the possibility of another rate hike during a panel discussion, he emphasized the need to help bring the inflation rate down to the Fed's 2% target. Additionally, Powell asserted that investors lack confidence in the belief that the Fed's benchmark interest rate is sufficient to sustainably bring the inflation rate down to 2%. The market still tends to adopt a "sell the rebound" strategy for the U.S. dollar, as the current round of Fed tightening policy may have come to an end. However, any dollar selling may require patience and is likely to occur only when market sentiment shifts towards expectations of "more rate cuts in 2024," which will largely depend on the performance of economic data. Meanwhile, the deflationary trend in the U.S. is becoming more stable, and there is substantial relief in the tightness of the labor market and economic activity data. These factors could bring about a shift, causing the U.S. dollar to soften. Nevertheless, the dollar still maintains a significant yield advantage and serves as a safe haven to some extent. Therefore, the dollar may still receive intermittent support on dips, especially if there is a slowdown in global or Chinese growth and/or if geopolitical tensions escalate or the narrative of "maintaining high rates in the long term" persists.

Last week, the U.S. Dollar Index seemed to be struggling to break through the 106.00 level, after falling below the 105 to 104.84 range on November 6. Meanwhile, despite the overall strength of the U.S. economy and inflation rates still exceeding the Fed's target, the dollar has lost some momentum, and further cooling in the U.S. labor market appears to support the Fed's current restrictive stance entering a long-term impasse. Currently, the index is still below 106, with the latest at 105.80. If it can break above the resistance areas of 106.00 (psychological level), 106.20 (34-day moving average), and 106.34 (upper line of the downward channel) this week, the next level to watch is 107.03 (upper line of the Bollinger Band) and 107.11 (high on November 1), and it may further rise to 107.34 (high on October 3, 2023). On the other hand, initial support is at 105.13 (lower line of the Bollinger Band) and 104.84 (monthly low on November 6), followed by 104.60 (lower line of the downward channel).

Conclusion for the Week: The trend of a strengthening U.S. dollar is expected to eventually weaken, turning bearish in 2024, as the market still believes the U.S. will experience a mild economic recession, and the Fed's monetary policy easing will exceed the expectations of financial market participants. Nevertheless, with the risks tilting towards a softer landing for the U.S. economy and a more gradual easing of Fed policy, the outlook is changing towards a weaker U.S. dollar and stronger foreign currencies.

Weekly Range: 104.84—106.34. Strategy for the Week: It is recommended to sell the U.S. Dollar Index on rallies this week.

WTI Crude Oil:

WTI oil prices remain near the lowest levels since August.

Last week, WTI oil prices continued to hover near the lowest levels since August, marking the third consecutive week of declines. Investors currently anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be forced to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period to combat stubbornly high inflation. This exacerbates concerns in the market about the economic headwinds resulting from the rapid rise in borrowing costs, with expectations that this will dampen crude oil consumption. Indeed, worries about the slowdown in demand from both the U.S. and China, the world's largest consumer, continue to weigh on oil prices. Meanwhile, traders are currently pricing in a risk premium for potential supply disruptions in the Middle East following the Israel-Hamas conflict. Additionally, signs of increased oil production from both the U.S. and Iran suggest that the oil market may not be as tight as initially anticipated. This largely overshadows the fact that major oil-producing countries Russia and Saudi Arabia have committed to continuing supply cuts until the end of this year, providing almost no support to crude oil prices and validating the bearish outlook for oil prices. Furthermore, the recent rebound in the U.S. dollar due to bets on another Fed rate hike supports the prospect of further depreciation in dollar-denominated commodities, including crude oil, in the near term. Even from a technical perspective, oil prices have continued to break below the crucial 200-day moving average this week, indicating minimal downside resistance for crude oil prices. Therefore, any significant rebound in WTI oil prices may be seen as a shorting opportunity, and this opportunity could quickly fade.

Last week, WTI crude oil prices fell below the $80 (psychological level) threshold, leading to a decline to levels below $75.00, reaching $74.91. Before the weekend, short sellers took profits, and cautious buyers announced their entry, causing prices to rebound above $77.00. Currently, oil prices are below $77.68 (high on last Friday) and the 200-day moving average of $77.91. If oil prices successfully break above these resistance levels this week, further attention can be given to $80.00 (psychological level), and the next level to watch is $82.11 (centerline of the Bollinger Band). This could pave the way for a recovery rebound. On the other hand, a bearish trend may lead investors to the support levels of $75.30 (lower line of the upward channel) and the low of last week at $74.91. Breaking below would shift the focus to $73.74 (low on July 17) and $71.11 (lower line of the Bollinger Band).

Conclusion for the Week: The WTI crude oil market is striving to stabilize amid ongoing volatility. Although fluctuations continue, there are signs that sellers are taking profits, and a recovery seems imminent. Additionally, geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East stand out in the oil market. While there is currently no further deterioration, there is also no sign of improvement. Therefore, any sudden statements or actions by key players in the region could rapidly push oil prices up by $10 in the blink of an eye.

Weekly Range: $75.30—$82.11. Strategy for the Week: Consider buying crude oil on dips this week.

Spot Gold

Gold prices recorded their worst week in over a month last week.

Last week, extending a recent series of declines, gold fell to a three-week low of $1933.00 as several Federal Reserve officials warned against betting that the Fed would no longer raise interest rates. Weakening safe-haven demand also weighed on gold prices, as the market priced in a much lower risk premium for the Israel-Hamas war. Earlier this week, Powell's remarks were not as dovish as expected, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic's comments on Friday suggested that the central bank needs to do more work on inflation. This prevented gold prices from rising further. This situation is a bad sign for gold, as higher rates raise the opportunity cost of investing in gold, which does not yield any interest. This notion has limited gold's significant rise this year, keeping gold prices well below the coveted $2000 per ounce level. However, concerns about the deterioration of the Chinese economy may help limit the downside. Along with broader risk sentiment, this should create short-term opportunities around gold prices. However, last week was still the worst week in over a month.

The daily chart shows that gold bulls attempted to rebound last weekend (reaching a high of 1959) but the upward momentum was constrained by $1962.50 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level from 1810.50 to 2009.50), leading to a sharp retreat to the weekly low of $1933.00. Gold prices turned lower last week, also recording a lower high and a lower low, while below the 150-day moving average of $1945. The weekend closed in a "golden cross" bullish pattern. If gold prices can firmly hold above the support zone composed of $1933.50 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level), $1930.40 (30-day moving average), and $1926.00 (lower line of the descending wedge), this may trigger a short-covering rebound. Subsequently, gold prices may retest the resistance near $1949 (upper line of the descending wedge) and challenge the resistance zone of $1962.50 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level) to $1978.20 (high on last Tuesday). On the other hand, the recent oscillation low, around the $1933.50, $1930.40, and $1926.00 area, currently appears to form short-term downside support. Following this, there is $1918.00 (trendline extending from the high on September 1 to the right of 1953) and $1910.00 (50% Fibonacci retracement level) levels nearby.

Conclusion for the Week: The benchmark 10-year U.S. government bond yield has moved away from its one-month low, supporting the dollar, which in turn puts pressure on the non-yielding gold prices. In addition, the easing of concerns about the Israel-Palestine conflict is another factor weakening the safe-haven demand for gold.

Weekly Range: $1910.00—$1962.50. Strategy for the Week: Consider buying gold on dips this week.

Spot Silver

The lack of industrial demand is causing some drag on silver prices.

After touching a high of 4.98%, the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds in the United States fell back and has yet to cross the 5% threshold. Subsequent U.S. economic and Federal Reserve monetary policy may not be able to support a new high in U.S. Treasury yields. There is further downward potential for real U.S. Treasury yields, indicating that the opportunity cost of holding silver is decreasing, providing a long-term foundation for the upward movement of silver prices. Silver supply is relatively stable, with a low annual growth rate maintained globally each year. Under the support of China's "carbon neutrality" policy, the global added photovoltaic installed capacity has increased rapidly in recent years, attracting a large amount of capital into the photovoltaic industry. Silver paste is a key material in crystalline silicon solar cells, and silver demand has increased accordingly. However, in the short term, market supply has exceeded demand, and some component companies have reduced their operating rates. Data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing show that the global manufacturing PMI has been running below 50% for 13 consecutive months and is showing a fluctuating downward trend. Whether it's the semiconductor industry, the photovoltaic industry, or other industries, it's difficult to perform well when the overall world economy is sluggish. This also means that insufficient industrial demand for silver will drag down silver prices, causing silver prices to underperform compared to gold.

Technical indicators on the daily chart have just entered negative territory, indicating that the bearish sentiment in silver prices has not been fully released. The Bollinger Bands are opening downwards, putting pressure on prices to move down, and the upward momentum is being suppressed. This fact reinforces the bearish outlook. Therefore, any subsequent rallies may continue to attract new sellers and may quickly fade. From current levels, the $22.75 (horizontal channel midline) and $22.90 (Bollinger Bands midline) areas are likely to be direct obstacles. However, if the strength continues and breaks through the above obstacles, it will negate the bearish outlook and prompt short sellers to actively cover and rebound. At that time, Silver/USD may further break through the $23.35 (horizontal channel midline) and $23.51 (Bollinger Bands upper line) levels. On the other hand, the $22.15 (horizontal channel lower line) to $22.19 (Bollinger Bands lower line) area may safeguard the recent downtrend. Following this is the vicinity of $21.57 (low on October 9).

Conclusion for the Week: Looking ahead, the upward movement of silver lacks bullish conviction, and caution is needed before positioning for further appreciation. Additionally, the recent decline from $23.60 to $23.70 forms the formation of a multiple top, and bulls need to be cautious. Furthermore, repeatedly falling below the crucial 200-day moving average indicates minimal downside resistance for silver.

Weekly Range: $21.57—$23.51. Strategy for the Week: Consider selling silver on rallies this week.

AUDUSD

The rise in U.S. bond yields continues to weigh on the Australian dollar.

Since the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates to their highest in 12 years earlier this week but played down the possibility of further hikes, the Australian dollar has been on a downward trend. Comments from Federal Reserve Chair Powell, seen as hawkish on monetary policy, and the rise in U.S. bond yields on Thursday continued to impact the Australian dollar. The Australian ten-year bond yield, which was expected to further diverge from U.S. bonds, also saw a decline, narrowing the spread with U.S. bond yields. The previous support factors for the Australian dollar, which was rising due to interest rate differentials, are gradually dissipating. Last week, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October was reported at -0.1%, below expectations. The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year was -2.6%, reflecting ongoing deflationary pressures. These data indicate that the economy remains weak, which is not conducive to risk appetite. This pushed AUD/USD from its early high of 0.6522 last week to a significant pullback to just above 0.6340. Currently, the initial key support for AUD/USD is at 0.6330, the 76.4% retracement level of the October to November gains. If this level is not maintained, the downside momentum may push the currency pair to continue testing lower levels.

The daily chart shows that AUD/USD rebounded above 0.65 early last week but was restrained by 0.6522 (the triple top formed by the highs in September, October, and November). It subsequently turned down, breaking below the 75-day moving average (0.6422) and 0.6372 (Bollinger Bands midline). AUD/USD continued to give up last week's gains. If AUD/USD closes below 0.6338 (last week's low) this week, it will strengthen the negative outlook. Subsequent declines may test the 0.6300 (psychological support) and the region near the annual low of 0.6270 touched on October 26, indicating further weakness in AUD/USD. Currently, the upside resistance in the 0.6400-0.6422 area appears to be acting as a short-term barrier, followed by the 89-day moving average at 0.6476 and near 0.6485 (Bollinger Bands upper line). A sustained breakthrough would lead to the Australian dollar surpassing the 3-month high of 0.6520-0.6522 touched on Monday, which would be seen as a new trigger for bullish traders.

Conclusion for the Week: In the short term, breaking below the uptrend line indicates that AUD/USD will further weaken, especially if it falls below 0.6400. Currently consolidating below the 20-day moving average at 0.6372, a break below this level will increase bearish tendencies.

Weekly Range: 0.6300-0.6522. Strategy for the Week: Consider buying the Australian dollar on dips this week

USDJPY

The rise in U.S. bond yields; supporting the strength of the U.S. dollar.

Last week, USD/JPY reached a high of 151.60 and continued its strong upward trend for the past five trading days. The Bank of Japan's more dovish stance continues to weaken the yen, coupled with the recent rebound in the U.S. dollar from the low of 147.29 on October 3, which is negative for this currency pair. The slight adjustment of the Bank of Japan's yield curve control policy indicates that the central bank is gradually moving towards exiting decades-long accommodative monetary policy. In addition, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated that Japan is making progress towards achieving its 2% inflation target but it is not enough to end ultra-loose policy. Kuroda also emphasized the uncertainty about whether small businesses can raise wages next year and added that wages and inflation must rise simultaneously for the Bank of Japan to consider exiting its accommodative policy that has been in place for a decade. Furthermore, the soft auction of the 30-year government bond continued to push up yields on all maturity government bonds, supporting the U.S. dollar. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has moved away from the lowest level in over a month touched on Thursday. The resulting widening of the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential may continue to drive capital outflows from the yen and validate the positive outlook for USD/JPY. However, bulls seem reluctant to bet rashly amid speculation about possible intervention by Japanese authorities.

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY bulls are holding strong above the 50-hour moving average at 150.64 on the 4-hour chart and 150.55 (Bollinger Bands midline) and have shown subsequent gains, indicating minimal resistance to the upside. Additionally, the oscillation indicator on the daily chart remains stable in the positive zone, far from the overbought area. Therefore, some follow-up buying is likely to push prices above the annual peak of 151.72 and towards the October 2022 high of 151.94. Some follow-up buying will be seen as a new trigger for bullish traders and lay the foundation for continuing the uptrend since the beginning of the year. The future may move towards 152.50 and 153.00 levels. On the other hand, if it falls below the 151 level, the exchange rate may hover around the 150.64-150.55 area. Next is the psychological level of 150, which should currently act as a key pivot point. If the latter is effectively broken, it may drag USD/JPY down to the post-nonfarm shakeout low of 149.20 (Bollinger Bands lower line), and then further below the integer level of 149.

Conclusion for the Week: The spot price seems poised to record a strong single-week gain and continue to hover near the yearly high of 151.72 touched on October 31. Now, market participants will turn their attention to the U.S. economy. This will influence the dynamics of the U.S. dollar along with U.S. bond yields, providing some impetus for the USD/JPY currency pair. In addition, broader risk sentiment should help create short-term opportunities.

Weekly Range: 149.20-152.50. Strategy for the Week: Consider buying the U.S. dollar on dips.

GBPUSD

The UK economy slows significantly, and the pound continues to decline.

Last week, the pound continued to decline as market participants expected a significant slowdown in the UK economy. While the UK economy avoided a contraction in the third quarter of 2023, it remained stagnant as businesses were reluctant to hire workers for the long term, and capacity expansion plans were scrapped due to uncertain demand prospects. The Bank of England's rate hikes and stubborn inflationary pressures squeezed household budgets. Besides economic turbulence, the dovish expectations of the Bank of England policymakers on interest rates and the subdued market sentiment also added pressure on the pound. Hugh Pill, Chief Economist at the Bank of England, said that the possibility of interest rate cuts in mid-2024 "seems not entirely unreasonable" due to concerns about excessive economic slowdown. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the current level of interest rates is not sufficient to bring the inflation rate down to 2%, leading to subdued market sentiment. Although the U.S. dollar faced bearish pressure again in the middle of last week due to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, cautious market positioning limited the rebound in GBP/USD. Despite Federal Reserve officials emphasizing a data-dependent policy stance, they did not explicitly push back against market expectations of unchanged rates in December. If policymakers stick to the same wording, the U.S. dollar may struggle to outperform other currencies in the short term.

On the daily chart, the pound oscillates near the support line of the descending triangle bottom at 1.2186. The GBP/USD currency pair hovers above the midline of the Bollinger Bands near 1.2203. Since the 65-day moving average at 1.2363 has started to tilt downward, the broader attractiveness of GBP/USD is bearish. The regions of 1.2353 (Bollinger Bands upper line) and 1.2350 (November 6 high) are the first resistance levels. Once GBP/USD rises above this level and turns it into a support, it will test 1.2435 (200-day moving average). The RSI technical indicator on the 4-hour chart is heading towards 40, indicating that bearish momentum is building. The crucial support seems to be at 1.2200 (psychological level) and 1.2186 (descending triangle support line), with the next level looking towards 1.2095 (November 1 low).

Conclusion for the Week: Last week, the pound exchange rate oscillated lower, below the 50-day moving average (1.2268). The key question in traders' minds is whether the pound can gather strength to break above this level. If it successfully breaks above this level, there is potential for an upward trajectory and the formation of a shooting star pattern starting from Monday's trading day.

Weekly Range: 1.2098—1.2353. Strategy for the Week: Trading strategy may consider selling the pound on rallies.

EURUSD

Last week, the euro showed a clear bearish bias after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech, dropping to a one-week low of 1.0656. European Central Bank officials responded to recent dovish market comments, providing support for the euro. However, the market expects the European Central Bank to keep interest rates unchanged, and the debate is focused on when it might cut interest rates for the first time. ECB officials support the policy temporarily, and as long as the U.S. economy outperforms the Eurozone economy, this support may continue. Fundamentally, the situation favors the U.S. dollar, as highlighted by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech on Thursday. Powell mentioned that the Fed is not confident that the restrictive nature of monetary policy is sufficient to bring the inflation rate down to 2% over time. He also warned about the "illusion" of inflation. After Powell's speech, the U.S. dollar rebounded, and U.S. bond yields surged. Before Powell's speech, U.S. bond yields were already rising, signaling a potential end to the recent bond rally following a weak 30-year bond auction.

On the daily chart, EUR/USD rebounded to a two-month high of 1.0756 early last week. However, Powell's hawkish comments boosted the U.S. dollar, leading to a reversal in EUR/USD. Currently, EUR/USD is still trading above the midline of the ascending channel at 1.0675 and above 1.0621 (Bollinger Bands midline). However, it is sliding down from the upper edge. Technical indicators are sending bearish signals, with a key support level near 1.0600, indicating a bearish trend. On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD found support around 1.0660, which is a crucial horizontal support level. Breaking below this level could trigger an accelerated bearish move, targeting 1.0600 (psychological level) and 1.0570 (October 27 low). The upside resistance is at 1.0745 (Bollinger Bands upper line) and 1.0780 (89-day moving average).

Conclusion for the Week: Last week, Powell pointed out that they are not confident in achieving a "sufficiently restrictive" policy stance to bring the inflation rate down to 2% over time. This comment boosted the U.S. dollar and led to a reversal in EUR/USD.

Weekly Range: 1.0570—1.0780.

Strategy for the Week: Considering buying the euro on dips this week.

 Disclaimer:

The information contained herein (1) is proprietary to BCR and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely; and, (4) does not constitute advice or a recommendation by BCR or its content providers in respect of the investment in financial instruments. Neither BCR or its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.