Last week, the US Dollar Index fell to 103.81 under bearish pressure, marking its lowest point since September 1. Gold retreated to around $1980, briefly surging towards $1993 last week. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and "dismal" retail sales data surprised on the downside, strengthening expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Institutions warned of a gradual formation of a bear market for the US dollar, reigniting upward momentum for gold.

Amid easing risk sentiment from the Israel-Palestine conflict, the market shifted focus to bets on US economic data. Oil prices rose 4% after a week of selling, marking the fourth consecutive week of decline. Friday's oil price increase, rebounding from a four-month low touched in the previous trading day, was supported by profit-taking from short positions and US sanctions on some Russian oil shippers.

Last week, as the market continued to scrutinize the Fed's policy path, US stocks closed slightly higher, with all three major indices recording gains for the third consecutive week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) essentially held steady, closing at 34,947.28 points; the Nasdaq rose by 11.81 points, or 0.08%, to 14,125.48 points; and the S&P 500 gained 5.78 points, or 0.13%, closing at 4,514.02 points.

The two-year US Treasury yield fell by 21 basis points last week to 4.85%, marking the best weekly performance since March. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.45%, down 18 basis points from a month ago when it hit a high of 5.02%.

Regarding data this week, due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, significant economic data releases are generally limited.

The overall economic activity this week is relatively subdued, with all eyes on the FOMC meeting minutes on November 21. Although the minutes are unlikely to have a particularly large impact on the market, given that US interest rates are likely at a peak, the market will be searching for signs or risks of further over-tightening. Weak US data has led futures markets to price in a Fed rate cut as early as 2024, with an expected cut of nearly 100 basis points.

Additionally, this week is a holiday week in the United States (Thanksgiving on Thursday), which should bring some calm to the market after recent significant volatility. Slowing inflation and soft employment data reinforce the view that the Fed has concluded its rate-hiking cycle. Currently, the market believes the Fed will cut rates significantly next year, with a plan for nearly 100 basis points of cuts, potentially starting in May. Investors continue to see risks of a more pronounced economic slowdown, which could mean the Fed will cut rates more aggressively than the market currently expects.

The focus in the Eurozone this week will be on confidence data. However, recent consumer sentiment has become more pessimistic. The expected rebound led by consumer spending is forecasted to occur in 2024, but current data does not indicate this will happen early next year.

As for the UK, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is likely to receive rare good news as he prepares for the Autumn Fiscal Statement on November 22. However, by historical standards, this suggests the Chancellor has limited room for maneuver. Don't expect significant changes this week.

Key events this week (Beijing time):

Critical: FOMC meeting minutes on November 21. Thanksgiving in the US on Thursday; Labor Day holiday in Japan.

Monday (November 20): Germany's October Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month (%) and year-on-year (%); US October Leading Indicators month-on-month.

Tuesday (November 21): Bank of England Governor Bailey speech; Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; US Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October; US Existing Home Sales Annualized month-on-month (%) and total sales (units).

Wednesday (November 22): Australia's West Pacific October Leading Indicators month-on-month (%); FOMC Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; US Initial Jobless Claims; US October Durable Goods Orders excluding Transportation month-on-month (%); Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index for November.

Thursday (November 23): Australia's Manufacturing and Services PMI; European Central Bank publishes Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.

Friday (November 24): Japan's October National Core CPI year-on-year (%); Japan Services PMI; US November Markit Services PMI.

USD Index

The US dollar may regain strength this week.

The US dollar index has fallen by more than 2.72% so far this month. In the past few days, the dollar index has been fluctuating weakly, and last week it fell below 104.00, reaching a low of 103.81 not seen since September 1. Non-US currencies generally experienced a rebound as selling pressure on the US dollar increased, leading to a significant overall decline in the dollar. The downward correction that began a few weeks ago may not have concluded and could continue. One variable that could exert pressure on the US dollar is the recent trend in US government bonds, as traders try to anticipate a "Fed pivot." Against this backdrop, yields have sharply declined this month, and after weak October data for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), the economic downturn has accelerated. Both reports unexpectedly showed declines, triggering a dovish repricing of rate expectations. Some believe that the slowdown in economic growth and cooling of the job market in October were temporarily affected by the large-scale strikes in the automotive industry. The sustainability of the ongoing inflation slowdown remains to be seen. The likelihood of the Fed rapidly entering a rate-cutting cycle is considered smaller until more evidence of a US economic downturn emerges. It may maintain its current interest rate range for a longer period, providing an opportunity to support the relative strength of the US dollar.

From a technical perspective, the US dollar index faced short-term pressure last week and fell to the lowest level since September 1 at 193.81. It recorded the largest weekly decline since the week of July 10 and closed on a weekly basis in a bearish pattern. Currently, bearish marks are evident on both daily and weekly charts. This suggests that the US dollar index faces strong resistance at 104.55 (last Thursday's high) and 104.75 (lower channel trendline). If the US dollar falls below 103.61 (200-day moving average) and 103.46 (50% Fibonacci retracement from 99.57 to 107.34), the US dollar index may face further selling pressure towards 102.93 (August 30 low). The dollar is attempting to recover from Tuesday's plunge. However, the rebound speed of the US dollar index is not satisfactory, and only a substantial catalyst favorable to the dollar can help it return to levels above 105.00 (market integer level) or higher at 105.51 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement).

Conclusion for this week: In the extremely turbulent and tense trading of last week, the US dollar had a significant impact on traders and the market. The main focus of this week, with Thanksgiving, will be whether the Federal Reserve will indeed temporarily pause rate hikes. Traders will have the opportunity to piece together all the puzzle pieces. As last week's trend seemed somewhat excessive, there may be a technical rebound for the US dollar this week.

Weekly range: 102.93—105.00.

Strategy for this week: It is recommended to short the US dollar index on rallies this week.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI oil prices still at their lowest levels since August

Due to supply concerns and a significant decrease in demand, oil prices have continued to fall over the past four weeks. The latest EIA data for the week ending November 10 showed a substantial increase in crude oil inventories, coupled with profit-taking by investors with short positions. This led WTI crude oil prices to drop to their lowest level since July 7 at $72.35 last week. However, considering the ongoing geopolitical situation and macroeconomic issues, there was a significant rebound last Friday, and this trend may continue this week. Although there was a rebound to above $76.00 over the weekend, it dealt a heavy blow to prices. Deteriorating economic data has indicated a downward direction for oil prices, and the accumulation of recent petroleum inventories has intensified the ongoing selling. As global growth continues to impact economic activity, oil prices fall, and investors even witness a deterioration in relatively strong US data. The tense situation in the oil market has eased somewhat as non-OPEC supply growth is sufficient to offset strong demand. The current balance in the oil market still relies on production cuts being maintained until 2024. If Saudi Arabia reverses its unilateral production cut policy, oil supply in the market could suddenly surge, and oil prices may likely fall below $70 per barrel. However, any supply interruption in the Middle East could lead to oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel.

The daily chart shows major developments from 2020 to 2022, as well as numerous geopolitical shocks over the past three years, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the current Middle East conflict and worsening data. OPEC may already be weighing the possibility of further supply cuts, and the chart indicates that $72.35 (last week's low) and $72.11 (lower boundary of the descending wedge) are key levels. Next are $70.35 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 63.93 to 93.94) and $70.00 (psychological level). As for the upside, oil prices first need to be above $76.15 (high after last Friday's significant 4% rebound) and rise above the $78.80 (30-day moving average) and $78.94 (50% Fibonacci retracement) areas early this week to have a chance to challenge the $80.00 (psychological level) level again.

Conclusion for this week: A substantial increase in crude oil inventories and record-high production were the main reasons for the oil price decline last week. The significant sell-off on Thursday may have been overdone, especially considering the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which could disrupt oil supply, and the US pledging to impose sanctions on Iran, a supporter of Hamas.

Weekly range: $72.35—$80.00.

Strategy for this week: It is recommended to buy crude oil on dips this week.

Spot Gold

Gold prices may continue to rise this week.

Last week, gold prices consolidated above $1980 throughout the week, ending a two-week decline. The decline in US Treasury yields supported gold prices, but the potential recovery of the US dollar may limit the upward momentum of gold prices. Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with concerns about US-China trade tensions resurfacing and uncertainty about the Fed's interest rate outlook keeping investors vigilant. The Chinese Commerce Minister met with US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo on Thursday. In the context of market anxiety, the safe-haven currency, the US dollar, benefited, limiting attempts by gold prices to rise. However, gold prices continue to be influenced by the recent sell-off in US Treasury yields, as the market hopes that the Federal Reserve will end its rate-hiking cycle, increasing demand for US Treasuries. The market expects a rate cut before May next year. The latest weak US economic data has reinforced expectations for the Fed to pause rate hikes, supporting the surge in gold prices with zero yields. This week, the CPI and PPI for October in the US declined. In addition, seasonally adjusted retail sales fell by 0.1% in October. On Thursday, the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 11 in the US increased by 13,000 to 231,000. In this context, gold prices may continue to rise, but profit-taking over the weekend and the potential for a continued rebound in the US dollar could be negative for gold prices.

Driven by expectations that the Fed's tightening cycle is nearing its end, demand has increased, pushing gold prices to a high of $1993.50 last Friday, almost completely recovering the previous week's 2.7% decline. The new uptrend last Friday once broke through the resistance at $1992.80 (78.6% Fibonacci rebound level from $2009.50 to $1931.60), confirming the bullish signal generated when closing above the 20-day moving average of $1973.70, indicating that the corrective phase that began at $2009.50 (October 27 high) may have ended. The RSI technical indicator stabilizing above the midline supports a bullish bias. Bulls can focus on $2000 (psychological level), and the next level to watch is $2017.70 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement from $2081.80 to $1810.50), where resistance is expected to increase. On the contrary, if bears enter the market, initial support is at the 20-day moving average of $1973.70. If this level is breached, gold prices may test $1956.50 (last Thursday's low) and $1952.80 (30-day moving average). If the downtrend expands, gold prices may test the level of $1946.10 (50% Fibonacci retracement).

Conclusion for this week: The decline in gold prices is limited, and ideally, gold prices will stabilize above $1980 (broken 61.8% retracement level) to provide better levels for re-establishing long positions. Gold prices may once again test $2000. Only a close below the 200-day moving average of $1937 can weaken the short-term structure and suggest a halt in the rebound.

Weekly range: $1937.00—$2000.00.

Strategy for this week: Consider buying gold on dips this week.

Spot Silver

Silver prices presented a bullish pattern of "head and shoulders" last week.

Last week, the spot silver price rebounded by 6.59%, closing at $23.72, achieving the largest weekly gain since the week of July 10. The weekly chart shows a bullish pattern of "head and shoulders" with the closing price. As the US inflation rate for October (including CPI and PPI) accelerated its retreat, silver prices refreshed near $24.14, reaching the high since September 4. The hope that the Federal Reserve will not further raise interest rates is expected to boost silver prices. As US inflation steadily falls towards 2%, the US dollar index has fallen below 104.00, and US Treasury yields have sharply declined. Additionally, the overall inflation rate for October has fallen sharply as the easing of tensions in the Middle East has led to a sharp drop in global oil prices. This has fueled a significant rebound in precious metals (including silver) last week. However, from another perspective, the market may turn overly optimistic due to the cooling of CPI. In the current environment of historically high interest rates, a too rapid rebound in the capital market may bring certain liquidity risks, hindering the Fed's efforts to continue lowering inflation and making it difficult to shift to a tightening monetary policy, which may backlash on the upward movement of silver. In recent times, the increase in silver futures has far exceeded that of gold futures. Analyzing the reasons, on the one hand, under the same news and data stimulus, the volatility of silver is greater than that of gold, and on the other hand, the previous rise in silver was equivalent to that of gold futures. There is demand for a larger increase in this rise.

From a technical perspective, breaking through the crucial 200-day moving average of $22.75 and the levels from $23.15 (support trendline extending from the August 2020 low of $17.55) to $23.41 (50% Fibonacci rebound level from $26.13 to $20.68) is considered a new trigger point for bullish traders. In addition, the oscillation indicator on the daily chart has gained positive traction, confirming the recent positive outlook, indicating that the upward resistance for silver/USD is minimal. On the other hand, strong resistance limits the upside space from $24.05 (61.8% Fibonacci rebound level) to $24.07 (resistance trendline extending down from the May high of $26.13). Once the above resistance area is broken, there will be a strong upward challenge to $24.85 (76.4% Fibonacci rebound level). Any further decline may now attract new buyers and continue to be restricted around $23.15. The latter should be a key pivot point, and if broken, silver/USD could fall to the area between $22.76 (38.2% Fibonacci rebound level) and $22.56 (100-week moving average), then to the psychological level of $22.00.

Conclusion for this week: The cautious approach for this week is to wait for strong follow-up buying interest, and prepare for long positions only after silver prices break through the resistance at $24.05-$24.07. Then, silver prices may further climb, reaching the intermediate resistance level between $24.20 and $24.25, and then attempting to break through $24.85 and $25.00.

Weekly range: $22.76—$24.85.

Strategy for this week: Consider accumulating silver on dips this week.

AUDUSD

The next level for the AUD/USD exchange rate will be around $0.6630.

Last week, the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar once again attempted to break above $0.6500 (psychological level) and $0.6522 (recent three-month high) but failed. Australia's employment data for October was released last week, showing an increase of 55,000 jobs compared to September, exceeding expectations (market estimated an increase of about 20,000 jobs). However, the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stated that there has been an improvement in labor supply, and resignation rates and recruitment intentions have also declined. All of these factors reduce the risk of a wage-price spiral. Overall, the Australian labor market remains tight, which will keep the RBA cautious. The labor market is not the main driver of inflation, so the market believes there is little reason for the RBA to continue raising interest rates in December. This has somewhat suppressed the upward momentum of the Australian Dollar. However, the market still believes that the RBA is unlikely to ease policy next year, in sharp contrast to expectations of rate cuts in the United States and the European Union. This is likely to be a potential supportive factor for the Australian Dollar.

After a strong rally early last week to a high of 0.6541 since August 10, the AUD/USD pair retraced to around 0.6450 midweek and rebounded above 0.65 with support around the 89-day moving average at 0.6457 before the weekend. If the currency pair resumes its uptrend this week and effectively breaks through the key resistance zone of 0.6500-0.6522, overcoming this barrier may challenge the bullish camp and catalyze a rebound to the 200-day moving average at 0.6593, just below the level of 0.6600. The next level to watch would be $0.6630 (high on August 2). If the AUD/USD does not rise but continues to retreat, the bearish momentum will strengthen further. Short-term trends show southward movement in technical indicators such as the relative strength index (RSI), momentum indicator, and MACD indicator. The short-term outlook has shifted from neutral to bearish, with short-term targets being the 89-day moving average at 0.6457 and 0.6417 (23.6% Fibonacci rebound level from 0.6895 to 0.6270). The next level to focus on is the 50-day moving average at 0.6395. However, if the AUD/USD continues to rise this week and remains above 0.6500, this scenario may change.

Conclusion for this week: The AUD/USD is currently facing support at 0.6457. The relative strength index shows a bearish/negative divergence, and if this situation occurs, the currency pair may further collapse. If it weakens further, it could potentially fall towards 0.6400 and 0.6395.

Weekly range: $0.6400-$0.6593.

Strategy for this week: Consider accumulating the Australian Dollar on dips.

USDJPY

The US dollar broke below the psychological level of 150 yen again last week.

Comments from the Japanese Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Ueda prompted a rebound in the yen against major currencies. Before the weekend close, the USD/JPY once again tested the 149.20 two-week low after falling below 150 earlier in the month. Despite the recent decline in the US dollar due to deteriorating economic prospects for the world's largest economy, the yen has experienced broad weakness. However, the Japanese Ministry of Finance's Aso confirmed that any foreign exchange intervention would be aimed at suppressing market volatility, and Tokyo would not intervene solely because of currency depreciation. On the surface, this suggests that foreign exchange intervention may not be as imminent as many investors think, potentially preventing further weakening of the yen, which is a reasonable assumption. Governor Ueda's comments also lacked urgency, reiterating that policy would only change if inflation was expected to remain higher than the target. However, the market sees this as an opportunity to make up for recent losses over the weekend. Some key economic data will be released this week, and US durable goods orders may show negative growth, putting pressure on the US dollar. From the perspective of USD/JPY, Japanese inflation will be crucial, as it has significant implications for determining the Bank of Japan's future policies.

Following comments from officials in Tokyo and the Bank of Japan, the USD/JPY fell last Friday, once again dropping below 150 (psychological level) to see a weekly low of 149.20. Currently, with US long-term yields peaking and heading downwards, this is unfavorable for the future trajectory of the US dollar exchange rate. Short-term support for USD/JPY is shown in the 50-day moving average area at 149.43 and 147.27 (low on October 23). Once broken, this could bring more downside space. The bearish/negative divergence shown by the RSI technical indicator may complement this outlook, but soft US data may be needed to catalyze this trend as Japanese fundamentals appear to weaken support for the yen. Given the significant decline in oil prices over the past few weeks, central bankers may be more tolerant of yen weakness. Although USD/JPY may rebound above 150 (psychological level) and 150.44 (20-day moving average) this week, the crucial hurdle for the bulls seems to be the important level of 151.94, which has remained unbroken for 32 years.

Conclusion for this week: The USD/JPY broke below the psychological level of 150 again last week after doing so earlier in the month. However, the yen has recently been unable to further develop on the basis of appreciation, indicating that the bearish trend may be difficult to sustain or may require additional catalysts.

Weekly range: 147.50-150.40.

Strategy for this week: Consider accumulating the US dollar on dips.

GBPUSD

The 200-day moving average is a short-term level to be contested for bulls and bears.

Last week, the pound fluctuated and reached a high of 1.2505, the highest in two months. This came after data showed that the UK's October consumer price inflation was lower than expected, prompting the market to advance its bets on a rate cut by the Bank of England. Official data released on Wednesday showed that the UK's October Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 6.7% in September to 4.6% YoY, below the estimated 4.8% and the smallest increase since October 2021. Currency market traders believe that UK interest rates have peaked, and after the release of inflation data on Wednesday, the bets on a rate cut were brought forward. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the market has already factored in expectations of a rate cut of about 23 basis points in June, meaning the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is over 90%. By the end of next year, the market expects a rate cut of about 71 basis points, almost three rate cuts of 25 basis points each. On the other hand, macroeconomic data released in the United States last week was not encouraging, leading to a sharp decline in the US dollar. Additionally, US Treasury yields continued to decline after a significant drop earlier in the week due to weak inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell more than 1%, just below 4.4%. This stabilized the GBP/USD exchange rate above 1.2450.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD faced resistance above 1.2500 at the beginning of the week due to the 100-day moving average at 1.2507. Subsequently, it experienced a pullback, finding support around 1.2380 (midline of the upward channel) and the 10-day moving average at 1.2343. Midweek, GBP/USD retraced and maintained a weak trend, consolidating slightly below the 200-day moving average at 1.2442 and 1.2459 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the rebound from 1.3143 to 1.2037). If losses expand, key support levels are at 1.2380 (midline of the upward channel) and 1.2298 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level). Maintaining this crucial bottom is essential for reviving hopes of a continued uptrend; failure to do so could lead to a decline towards 1.2200. If the bulls regain control, the initial resistance is expected at 1.2500 (psychological level) and 1.2507 (100-day moving average). Breaking through this barrier could trigger new buying interest and lay the foundation for a potential rebound to the 1.2590 level.

Conclusion for this week: The 200-day moving average is a short-term level to be contested for bulls and bears. Once the daily closing price of the currency pair is above this level and confirms it as a support, 1.2500 (psychological level) and 1.2507 (100-day moving average) could become the next significant resistance area. The short-term bullish target is the 1.2590 level.

Weekly range: 1.2298-1.2590.

Strategy for this week: Trading strategy may consider accumulating the pound on dips.

EURUSD

In the short term, the euro may see a bullish outlook.

This week, U.S. macroeconomic data continued to disappoint, indicating a gradual slowdown in the U.S. economy, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve may end its rate-hiking actions. The prices of U.S. bonds rose, leading to a continuous decline in the U.S. dollar index. Last week, the euro to the U.S. dollar experienced a significant rebound and remains in a very bullish situation. Following the explosive rise early last week, the EUR/USD pair continued to hold onto higher levels.

The technical outlook for the currency pair indicates that the bullish bias remains intact. Without significant macroeconomic data at the high end, risk sentiment may drive the EUR/USD trend this week.

The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD rebounded to the highest level since August 31 early last week, reaching a high of 1.0887, the highest in two and a half months. Mid-week, Powell's hawkish comments boosted the U.S. dollar, leading to a reversal in the EUR/USD. However, the downward momentum was restrained by 1.0804 (200-day moving average) and 1.0800 (psychological support), and it bounced back above 1.09 to reach a high of 1.0914 over the weekend.

To reaffirm the bullish outlook, the currency pair needs to hold above 1.0804 and around 1.0790, where the 200-day and 100-day moving averages are located. Successfully holding this support area could pave the way for the exchange rate to break through the psychological level of 1.0900 and move towards the resistance at 1.0959 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 1.1275 to 1.0448), with the next target being 1.1000 (psychological level). However, if sellers regain strength and push the EUR/USD below the 200-day moving average at 1.0804 and the 100-day moving average at 1.0790, the short-term trend may turn bearish. This potential development could lead to a decline to 1.0740 (midpoint of the upward channel), and continued weakness increases the risk of retesting the support at 1.0672 (65-day moving average).

Conclusion for the Week: Currently, the EUR/USD is still operating above the upward channel. The 4-hour chart shows support for the downtrend around 1.08, which is an important psychological support level. Maintaining levels above this point may trigger an accelerated bullish move, with targets set at 1.0950 and 1.1000.

Weekly Range: 1.0800—1.1050

Weekly Strategy: Consider buying the euro on dips this week.

USDCNH

The downward momentum for USD/CNH is gaining strength recently.

Global risk sentiment has noticeably eased, with expectations that the Fed's rate hike has peaked, a temporary pause in the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, and no escalation in the Middle East conflict. Over the past week, the USD/CNH mostly stabilized in the range below 7.3. This year, the Chinese yuan has experienced significant fluctuations against the U.S. dollar amid a stronger dollar. In the second half of the year, a series of measures to stabilize the exchange rate helped the yuan maintain range-bound movements. However, after a significant drop in U.S. bond yields last week, USD/CNH effectively broke through the strong support area around 7.30. This suggests that the yuan may experience a rebound.

Currently, there are signs that the era of the "U.S. economic exceptionalism" (the U.S. economy outperforming against the trend) may be slowly ending, leading to a weaker U.S. dollar and a substantial decline in U.S. bond yields. This allows the traumatized Chinese domestic market assets to breathe. However, the yuan against the U.S. dollar continues to hover within a narrow range, and the market is still gathering more specific clues about the peak of the U.S. dollar. The recent catalyst has been the U.S. non-farm payroll data. For the Federal Reserve, the net revision of the first two months of non-farm employment showed a -101,000 correction, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose. Overall, it was a weaker report. The subsequent release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI was weaker than expected, further putting pressure on the U.S. dollar.

From a technical perspective, last week USD/CNH sharply weakened from the weekly high of 7.3106 to the low since August 10 of 7.2098. The weekly closing price formed a bearish "head and shoulders" pattern. The U.S. dollar against the offshore yuan not only fell below 7.2545 (lower boundary of the upward channel) but also broke below the symmetrical triangle support line on the weekly chart at 7.2390. The trend temporarily stopped at 7.2033 (30-week moving average) and 7.2000 (psychological support). If the downward momentum strengthens, the exchange rate may further weaken to 7.1855 (low since August 7). If it significantly falls below 7.1855, the market focus will shift to the 200-day moving average at 7.1266. Currently, the market is still collecting more specific clues about the peak of the U.S. dollar, with short-term resistance around 7.2545 (lower boundary of the upward channel) and around 7.2984 (14-week moving average).

Conclusion for the Week: The USD/CNH is showing increased downward momentum recently, and the market focus will shift to further weakening to below 7.20. If it significantly falls below 7.20, the downtrend is just beginning to form. The target will be the 200-day moving average at 7.1266.

Weekly Range: 7.1266—7.2545

Weekly Strategy: This week, it is advisable to consider selling the U.S. dollar on rallies.

Disclaimer:

The information contained herein (1) is proprietary to BCR and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely; and, (4) does not constitute advice or a recommendation by BCR or its content providers in respect of the investment in financial instruments. Neither BCR or its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.