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Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, upon which Trump based his tariffs, did not authorize the president to do so. The court stated, "Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution states: 'Congress has the power to make and impose taxes and tariffs.'" Trump signed an order on the 20th imposing a 10% global tariff on all countries, a measure that will take effect almost immediately, replacing the large-scale tariffs previously imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act that the Supreme Court ruled illegal.
Despite a surprising drop in U.S. fourth-quarter GDP to 1.4%, persistent inflation and the strongest U.S. military buildup in the Middle East since the Iraq War have supported gold prices back above $5,000. Investors are closely watching President Trump's State of the Union address next Tuesday for a final "signal of attack."
The dollar rose last week to an intraday high of 98.07, its strongest level in the past month, a level not seen since January 22nd. The investor support driving this strength is not based on a single catalyst. The reasons for this round of dollar appreciation include: the possibility of a US military strike against Iran within days; surprisingly strong US economic data; and recent volatility in the US stock market enhancing the dollar's appeal as a safe-haven currency.
As tensions between the US and Iran escalate, volatility in the oil market has increased significantly. The US is conducting a large-scale military buildup in the Middle East, and Trump has stated that a decision on whether to launch a military strike against Iran will be made within the next 10 days. Against the backdrop of rising conflict probabilities, oil prices have risen by more than 5% cumulatively last week, reflecting traders' repricing of the risks of military action. The market's biggest concern is not the short-term "verbal battle," but the actual impact of an escalation of war on key shipping routes and supply chains.
Last Week's Market Performance Review:
Last week, influenced by the Supreme Court's ruling that most of Trump's tariff policies were illegal, investors bet that corporate cost pressures would ease and the risk of sticky inflation would cool, leading to a broad-based rise in US stocks on Friday. The S&P 500 rose 0.69% to close at 6909.51; the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9% to close at 22886.07; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.81 points, or 0.47%, to close at 49625.97. Notably, the Dow initially fell more than 200 points in early trading due to weak economic data, but subsequently reversed course on a recovery driven by the tariff ruling.
Spot gold narrowly held above the $5000/ounce mark last week, having briefly fallen below that level to a low of $4414.10/ounce. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold has experienced a dramatic rollercoaster ride in this period of volatility. Gold prices staged a U-shaped reversal on Friday, recovering some of Thursday's losses, and by the close of trading on Friday, the price had surpassed the $5000 milestone.
Silver prices rose on Friday last week, rebounding more than 2.50% from a daily low of around $74, but are expected to end the week on a negative note. A weaker-than-expected US inflation report boosted silver, after previous declines stemmed from widespread cross-asset liquidations as investors sold precious metals, as well as stocks and cryptocurrencies, to raise cash. It is currently trading at $77.400 per ounce, nearing the end of the week.
The dollar rose to its strongest level in the past month last week, with investor support factors driving its strength not stemming from a single catalyst. It briefly touched an intraday high of 98.07—a level not seen since January 22—before retreating to near 97.80. The reasons for this dollar rally include: the possibility of a US military strike against Iran within days; some surprisingly strong US economic data; and recent gains in US stocks.
The euro rose 0.06% against the dollar to $1.1779, after a business survey showed that eurozone economic activity grew faster than expected this month, with manufacturing returning to growth for the first time since October, but the dominant services sector underperformed expectations. The dollar rose 0.06% against the yen to 155.08 yen, gaining 1.6% for the week, its biggest weekly gain since October. Japanese data showed that core consumer inflation hit 2.0% year-on-year in January, the slowest pace in two years.
The pound rose 0.16% to $1.3484, but fell about 1.2% for the week, its biggest weekly drop since January 2025. Official data showed that UK retail sales growth in January hit a near four-year high, while surveys indicated that the recovery momentum for UK businesses in early 2026 had continued for a second month. The Australian dollar remained in a narrow range just below $0.7100 before the end of last week, facing pressure from a stronger dollar and weak domestic PMI data, as it was poised for its eighth consecutive week of gains.
WTI crude oil futures fluctuated around $66.30 a barrel on Friday, near a six-month high, and are expected to rise 5% for the week. US President Trump said he was considering a limited military strike against Iran and warned Tehran it had a maximum of 15 days to reach a nuclear agreement.
Bitcoin traded within a narrow range before the weekend, as investors continued to search for direction nearly two weeks after the market crash. This decline appears to have prompted a growing number of crypto hedge funds to move into cash, highlighting the profound impact of the $2 trillion loss following the October plunge on professional investors and the elusive market sentiment in 2026. On February 6, Bitcoin plunged as much as 13%, its biggest drop in about four years. The token has fallen by about 50% from its all-time high of nearly $127,000 reached in early October.
On Friday, the US Treasury market remained largely stable overnight, with the 10-year yield fluctuating narrowly around 4.07%. While geopolitical tensions (especially the escalating US-Iran standoff) briefly triggered safe-haven buying, the market's technical rebound encountered resistance at the medium-term moving average after a nearly 30 basis point drop.
Market Outlook for This Week:
This week (February 23-27), global markets will experience a super trading week with a dense release of data, numerous central bank policy announcements, and the rollover of crude oil contracts. From inflation data and economic indicators across countries to key monetary policy signals, from the rollover of maturing MLF and LPR quotes to press conferences by international giants, every event can trigger significant market volatility. Investors need to closely monitor core events and data, and prepare for risk hedging and strategic positioning in advance.
After the US Supreme Court ruled that Trump could no longer rely on "national emergency powers" to impose tariffs globally, Trump quickly proposed an alternative: he stated that he would sign an executive order imposing a 10% tariff globally under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and that it would take effect in three days.
With US President Trump setting a roughly 10-day "deadline" for negotiations with Iran, and reports that the US military might launch an attack on Iran as early as this weekend, tensions in the Middle East have escalated sharply. Israel is "prepared for any eventuality," and influenced by the risk of conflict and a sharp drop in US inventories, WTI crude rose above $66, while Brent crude approached $72.
US President Trump's State of the Union address serves as a triple pricing window for policy, personnel, and geopolitical factors.
Regarding risks this week:
Risk Warnings:
Besides core economic data and policy events, investors should be wary of three potential risks:
First, sudden geopolitical conflicts and unexpected signals in Trump's State of the Union address could trigger increased risk aversion, benefiting safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar;
Second, speeches by officials from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that signal a stronger hawkish or dovish shift could quickly correct market expectations, causing sharp short-term fluctuations in foreign exchange and precious metals;
Third, unexpectedly high global inflation data or a significant decline in economic indicators could exacerbate market concerns about stagflation, suppressing the performance of risk assets;
Fourth, liquidity fluctuations and forced liquidation risks during the crude oil contract rollover period require close monitoring of trading platform rules; Fifth, concerns about tightening domestic liquidity due to slower-than-expected MLF rollover could affect the performance of A-shares and RMB assets.
This Week's Conclusion:
Global investors are closely watching Trump's State of the Union address next Tuesday for the ultimate trump card in the tariff legal battle and potential military action.
The evolution of the situation in the Middle East has become the absolute focus of market attention. Despite a slightly optimistic tone following the conclusion of the US-Iran Geneva talks earlier this week, the US military buildup in the region continues, and the risk of conflict remains. According to media reports, President Trump has not yet decided whether to launch an attack, but if he does, action could come soon.
The oil market has begun to react to the situation in the Middle East. Last week, Brent crude broke through the $70 per barrel mark. Unlike in early February, this price increase was not driven by a weaker dollar. On the contrary, the dollar index rose by 1%. The simultaneous rise in implied volatility in oil suggests that this round of price fluctuations is mainly driven by geopolitical risk premiums.
Positive US Data: But Is the Economy in a "Boom-Style Recession"?
A "boom-style recession" is a new term combining "boom" and "recession," accurately describing the current fragmented state of the US economy: despite strong macroeconomic data such as GDP and consumer spending, most ordinary people feel their financial situation is deteriorating due to high debt, uneven inflation, and "jobless growth," even believing the country is in recession. This phenomenon reveals a complex situation where macroeconomic prosperity coexists with microeconomic difficulties.
The phenomenon of a “boom-and-bust recession” is a neologism combining “boom” and “recession.” It highlights the reality that ordinary Americans are not feeling the benefits of a seemingly well-functioning economy—despite the fact that, on paper, the U.S. economy appears to be performing well.
Economic output has continued to soar, consumer spending has been robust, and the post-pandemic recession many anticipated has never truly materialized. Yet, many feel terrible about their finances, debt levels are at record highs, and most Americans believe the country is in the midst of an economic slowdown.
“Looking at traditional indicators, the economy is indeed performing very well, but ordinary people say they don’t feel it,” says Stoller, an antitrust advocate and research director at the nonpartisan think tank Project for Economic Freedom.
What does the name mean?
This concept is thematically similar to the “ambiguous recession” that became popular in 2022, which explained the disconnect between strong post-pandemic economic data and negative consumer sentiment. It can also be compared to a “K-shaped economy,” a term that describes the stark differences in how Americans across different income levels may feel.
The “boom-and-bust” framework aims to guide people beyond subjective feelings and focus on the substantial financial difficulties faced by those outside the top tier of the American economy. Once this context is understood, it becomes easier to see why many Americans feel that the national economic engine they helped drive hasn't propelled them forward.
On the surface, the “boom-and-bust” theory helps explain why recent data shows U.S. GDP growth hasn't translated into improved consumer sentiment, a significant departure from the typical trend observed over the past six decades.
Inflation is not uniform.
The key to this difference lies in the varying impact of inflation on different groups. Data shows that consumers experience significantly different price increases due to factors such as income level and geographic location.
Between 2020 and 2025, food and housing inflation will be the highest among all tracked necessities. In 2024, these two categories of spending will account for an unusually high proportion of consumption by low-income groups.
Low-income groups have historically experienced higher inflation rates than wealthier groups. This inflation gap will widen further when overall price increases exceed the Federal Reserve's 2% target—as has been prevalent in recent years—and cannot be simply attributed to a post-pandemic phenomenon. The Atlanta Fed's 2026 report shows that food price increases will still be about 9 percentage points higher than the average.
From the second quarter of 2006 to the third quarter of 2020, grocery price increases in less developed areas were significantly higher than in wealthier areas. Heather points out that increasing the number of supermarkets in underserved communities can promote market competition, thereby lowering prices and helping to alleviate inflation disparities. From the second quarter of 2006 to the third quarter of 2020, food price increases in poorer areas consistently exceeded those in wealthier areas. Heather points out that increasing the number of grocery stores in underserved communities can promote competition and lower prices, thereby helping to alleviate inflation disparities.
Conclusion:
If you consider monopolies and price discrimination as systemic features of the US economy, then the conclusion is not difficult to draw. Happy people and sad people pay different prices.
The US dollar stabilizes; is this a genuine breakout or a "bull trap"?
Recently, the US dollar index has shown signs of stabilization, currently fluctuating slightly below 98.00, a slight rebound from the low of 95.56 at the end of January. Previously, the dollar had experienced four consecutive months of decline, with a cumulative drop of approximately 6.7%, once hitting a four-year low. Recently, the dollar has gradually shaken off downward pressure, and market attention is shifting back to the prospects for US economic growth and changes in the policy environment.
Past macroeconomic data and market reactions confirm a lack of confidence: Market performance in the past few weeks shows that even with some improvement in the US macroeconomic situation, it is insufficient to push the dollar back to the level of 99.50 in mid-January. The wave of "selling off US assets" in mid-January brought a sustained negative impact to the dollar, a trend quite similar to the market conditions in the summer of 2025. The market reaction after last week's non-farm payroll data further confirms that market confidence has not yet been restored—even with strong economic data and the market repricing hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, the dollar only experienced a brief and mild rebound, failing to form sustained upward momentum.
Fundamentals: Economic Resilience and Policy Expectations Support Rebound
Meanwhile, from another perspective: the recent recovery of the US dollar is closely related to robust domestic economic indicators in the US. The relative resilience of the consumer sector continues to attract investment inflows, offsetting some of the previous negative factors. Negative market sentiment towards the dollar has been largely digested, and the dollar may gain a relative advantage over currencies such as the euro and pound in the coming months. Although there is pressure from foreign capital hedging and policy uncertainty, their marginal impact is weakening.
Politically, with the midterm elections approaching, the market expects the government to shift to a more growth-oriented stance, which could help stimulate "animal spirits" and drive funds towards US assets. Furthermore, the nominee for the new Federal Reserve chairman, Kevin Warsh, is considered a conservative and not inclined towards excessive easing, which has alleviated market concerns about inflation and dollar depreciation.
The derivatives market also confirms this shift. In January, the market favored euro long positions, but after Warsh's nomination, risk reversal indicators for the euro and pound fell from their peaks. In the options market, interest in betting on a narrowing exchange rate volatility "butterfly pattern" has increased, indicating that investors' concerns about a sharp depreciation of the dollar have eased.
However, some institutions remain cautious, believing that the US government's exchange rate preference may still lean towards a weaker dollar, and the dollar's trend may be a slow decline throughout the year.
Overall, improved fundamentals have provided some breathing room for the dollar, but the sustainability of the rebound still needs to be verified by economic data.
Market View: Divergence Between Bulls and Bears, Focus on Data Verification
Currently, the dollar's rebound stems from position adjustments. The market interprets this as a shift in positions from predominantly shorting the dollar to a more balanced approach, suggesting the rebound will continue at least until the third quarter. Meanwhile, strong consumer demand is attracting capital inflows, which is already reflected in the dollar's stabilization.
However, differing opinions exist among retail traders. Some argue that despite a cluster of short-term positive factors, the government's exchange rate stance remains a variable, and the full-year trend still needs data verification. The options market's shift to a "butterfly pattern" suggests stabilizing market expectations, echoing the expanding MACD histogram.
The US dollar index is currently in a short-term rebound window, with fundamental resilience and technical recovery resonating. If subsequent growth data continues to improve, the dollar is expected to test the 98 (psychological level) and 97.96 (50-day moving average) area; however, if uncertainty intensifies, it may return to the 95.56 (paper price this year) - 96.00 (psychological level) range for consolidation.
Conclusion:
Overall, the US dollar index is currently at a convergence point of policy, data, and technical factors.
Recent economic data exceeding expectations, safe-haven buying driven by geopolitical risks, and the relative attractiveness of US Treasury yields are collectively supporting the dollar; while policy signals from the FOMC minutes and expectations of a revised Fed policy logic triggered by the AI controversy will be key catalysts for a new round of dollar price movements. A directional shift in the US dollar index is imminent.
Three pillars supporting gold prices: Aiming for $5800?
Currently, gold prices appear to be consolidating around $5000, but this doesn't mean the precious metal will remain at this level indefinitely. Geopolitical and economic uncertainties are likely to persist, Trump will continue to threaten tariffs, the potential impact of which is not yet fully reflected in economic and inflation data, and doubts about the Federal Reserve's future credibility remain. This backdrop will enhance investor interest in physical assets like gold.
Gold prices are expected to have a chance to reach $5800 per ounce in the second quarter, a significant increase from previous expectations.
While recent market volatility has raised questions about whether gold prices have peaked, we believe the current rally is not yet sufficient to reverse quickly.
Gold prices have fallen sharply from their record high of nearly $5600 last month, leading some investors to worry about a potential sharp decline, similar to previous cycles such as the 1980 peak or the 2011 high.
However, current market conditions are significantly different. Gold prices have been strongly supported by the Federal Reserve's expectation of at least two rate cuts this year, with declining inflationary pressures also prompting market expectations of a potential third rate cut by December.
Two 25-basis-point rate cuts are anticipated, one in March and the other in June. This will further lower real interest rates, thereby encouraging capital inflows into gold. Geopolitical and economic uncertainties are likely to persist, with Trump continuing to threaten tariffs. Market attention is gradually shifting towards the potential impact of tariffs, an impact not yet fully reflected in economic and inflation data, and persistent investor skepticism about the Fed's future credibility. This backdrop will enhance investor interest in physical assets like gold.
Gold remains an attractive safe-haven asset due to the declining attractiveness of US Treasuries. However, this is not solely a US-specific issue, as rising global debt levels have reduced the attractiveness of global bonds (including Japanese bonds).
The global financial system is undergoing structural changes. The US Treasury, once considered the foundation of the world's largest risk-free asset and interest-bearing, tradable financial instruments, now faces a crisis of confidence. Soaring debt levels, concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, and increasing sanctions risks have fundamentally altered its position. Consequently, investors are demanding higher premiums for long-term US Treasuries, as evidenced by the widening gap between long- and short-term yields.
Gold serves as a transitional asset, offering stability and diversification when conventional assets face stress. This is why a strategic allocation to gold remains significant, at least until geopolitical tensions stabilize, US structural fiscal problems are resolved, and the Federal Reserve's credibility is restored—a scenario unlikely in the short term. In this context, gold's role as a store of value and a risk hedge becomes particularly crucial.
Looking at the different segments of the gold market, while central bank demand is expected to remain strong through 2026, broader investor demand will play a major role this year.
Inflows into gold ETFs are expected to continue, with total holdings potentially exceeding 4,800 tons this year. While Western markets continue to support ETF demand, significant growth from major Asian powers and emerging markets such as India is also anticipated, with these regions expected to account for more than 10% of global ETF holdings currently.
Conclusion:
Gold has been the most outstanding performer across the board, successfully breaking through the 50% retracement threshold and currently only about 12% below its recent high. Norman emphasizes that gold is supported by multiple strong structural factors: continued large-scale gold purchases by central banks, the global trend of de-dollarization, and rising sovereign debt concerns remain unshaken. Physical demand is also booming, with gold bar showrooms in the UK, Europe, and Asia reporting "bursting" interest; while the Indian premium has declined somewhat due to high prices, it remains near a ten-year high; and although seasonal demand in China has slowed slightly, it remains resilient.
The precious metals market is currently at a critical juncture where speculation and fundamentals are locked in a fierce tug-of-war. Short-term volatility may continue to test investors' resolve, but as long as Asian physical demand remains strong, central bank gold purchases continue, and structural contradictions remain unresolved, a larger bull market wave will eventually return. Smart long-term capital is quietly positioning itself at the bottom of the "elevator"; while speculators who only chase trends may have to pay the price for the next "elevator ride."
The surge in crude oil prices amidst a persistent oversupply raises questions about underlying strategies and the underlying dynamics of the market.
At the start of the new year, the global crude oil market has been embroiled in an extreme battle between bulls and bears. Recent price increases, particularly amidst a persistent oversupply, raise questions about the underlying strategies and the underlying dynamics of the market.
The market generally believes that the price surge is due to the sharp contrast between unconventional geopolitical tensions and the persistent structural oversupply that has been suppressing prices. This has led to a typical volatile market characterized by "fundamental pressure and event-driven rebound."
In other words, despite the International Energy Agency's (IEA) warning of a massive oversupply of 3.73 million to 3.84 million barrels per day (approximately 4% of global demand) in fiscal year 2026, the "war premium" generated by the escalating US "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran and tightening sanctions on Russian energy exports has stubbornly supported crude oil prices, preventing Brent crude from breaking through key support levels.
However, the actual driving force behind the continued rise in crude oil prices may differ from other factors. This article summarizes the mainstream market reasons and what we believe to be the actual reasons.
Actual Reasons: US Energy Policy Bias: Denying New Energy Sources + Reinstating Oil Hegemony
Due to the Trump administration's clear rejection of new energy sources and wind power, its core policy revolves around "revitalizing traditional energy and suppressing clean energy." Furthermore, the US possesses the world's richest oil and gas reserves, yet it foolishly pursues expensive and unstable wind power, a betrayal of US energy independence.
On the one hand, citing "national security risks" and "legal flaws," it halted all large-scale offshore wind power projects under construction, as well as the Lava Ridge wind power project approved during the Biden era. On the other hand, it passed the Grand Act, completely eliminating federal tax credits for electric vehicles, gradually terminating investment and production tax credits for wind and solar energy, opening federal land and waters to oil and gas drilling, and reducing extraction royalties. This policy bias strongly supports the traditional energy industry, and it further expands its control over the world's existing resources through means such as military intervention in Venezuela.
This strategy of seizing and selling energy, running counter to the global trend of green transformation, has significantly disrupted the bullish and bearish dynamics of the 2026 crude oil market.
From a market impact perspective, on the supply side, policy subsidies and deregulation of traditional energy sources have further strengthened the resilience of US shale oil production, driving a continuous expansion of crude oil supply from the "G5 Americas." This provides policy support for the IEA's warning of a 4 million barrels per day surplus, making the downward pressure on oil prices even stronger in the medium to long term.
On the demand side, the elimination of new energy subsidies has hindered clean energy projects in the US, slowed technology transfer, and delayed the promotion of electric vehicles and wind power. This has weakened the potential for accelerated crude oil demand substitution, indirectly alleviating the pressure of stagnant crude oil demand and becoming a key factor supporting the continued rebound in oil prices under the narrative of surplus.
Mainstream Argument of Oil Price Oversupply: A 4 Million Barrel Oversupply Sets the Tone for Medium- to Long-Term Trends
The IEA's major February 2026 report quantified the oversupply as a clear bearish factor for trading: This is the largest crude oil oversupply in history outside of the pandemic, becoming the core "gravitational field" suppressing the central oil price.
From the demand side, global crude oil demand growth has essentially stalled: the rapid increase in electric vehicle penetration in China and the accelerated global shift to liquefied natural gas (LNG) power infrastructure to meet the electricity demand of the artificial intelligence industry have led to a slowdown in crude oil demand growth to less than 930,000 barrels per day, further exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch.
Mainstream Oil Price Support: Geopolitical Risks and Opportunities
The bearish fundamental logic has been constantly interrupted by sudden geopolitical events in the Persian Gulf and Eastern Europe, becoming the core variable for short-term trading.
In early February, the US deployed its second aircraft carrier to the Middle East, marking a substantial escalation of its hardline stance towards Tehran. Although diplomatic negotiations in Geneva are ongoing, market risk appetite remains tight.
If Iran's 3.3 million barrels per day production capacity were completely disrupted, it would instantly eliminate the global supply glut, pushing oil prices skyrocket to the key resistance level of $91 per barrel. This extreme scenario provides profit opportunities for short-term breakout trading.
It should be noted that geopolitical changes in the Strait of Hormuz could instantly shift the market narrative from "oversupply" to "scarcity." While the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is intended to mitigate volatility, its regulatory capacity has been significantly limited after years of depletion. Liquidity risks under extreme market conditions should be carefully monitored.
Conclusion:
Trump's actions—military intervention in Venezuela, talks with domestic oil companies, and policy and geopolitical maneuvers to drive up oil prices—are primarily aimed at revitalizing the oil and shale gas industries, acquiring more energy resources through plunder, and ultimately securing greater fiscal revenue and domestic energy supply.
Meanwhile, due to the prolonged low oil prices and the new energy boom, market consolidation has been significant, leading to large-scale layoffs and mergers and acquisitions in the oil industry. It is expected that oil prices will likely remain at a relatively bullish level until oil companies commit to sufficient capital expenditure. Furthermore, short-term fluctuations due to oversupply data present attractive entry points for long-term positions.
Overview of Key Overseas Economic Events and Matters This Week:
Monday (February 23): US December Durable Goods Orders (MoM, revised) (%); US December Factory Orders (MoM) (%); Fed Governor Waller speaks.
Tuesday (February 24): UK February CBI Retail Sales Balance; US February Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index; ECB President Lagarde speaks; US President Trump delivers State of the Union address.
Wednesday (February 25): Australia January Bureau of Statistics CPI YoY - Seasonally Adjusted (%); Eurozone January Harmonized CPI YoY - Unadjusted Final (%); US January Wholesale Inventories (MoM, preliminary) (%); US EIA Crude Oil Inventory Change (week ending February 20, 10,000 barrels); RBA Governor Bullock participates in a fireside chat.
Thursday (February 26): Eurozone February Economic Sentiment Index; Eurozone February Consumer Confidence Index (Final). US Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ending February 21 (in thousands);
Friday (February 27): Japan's February Tokyo CPI YoY (%); UK's February GfK Consumer Confidence Index; Eurozone's January ECB 1-Year CPI Forecast (%); US January PPI YoY (%); US February Chicago PMI
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