In a week marked by global market turbulence, Wall Street shrugged off political election uncertainties and repeatedly hit record highs. Weaker-than-expected economic data fueled investor optimism for a Fed rate cut, driving stocks higher. In Europe, markets experienced significant volatility amid the UK and French elections. Meanwhile, gold extended its strong performance, rising for two consecutive weeks to the highest level since May, while the cryptocurrency market suffered significant declines.

Last week's ADP and ISM services PMI data fell short of expectations, further boosting hopes for a rate cut in the highly anticipated non-farm payroll report, driving US stocks to new highs. All three major indices posted gains this week: the Nasdaq rose 3.5%, the S&P 500 nearly 2% (marking its fourth weekly gain in five weeks), and the Dow Jones increased by almost 0.7%. Excluding the US Independence Day holiday on Thursday, the S&P 500 rose for four consecutive days, hitting record highs thrice. This year, the index has set 34 records, gaining nearly 17%. The Nasdaq also saw four straight days of gains, continually breaking previous records.

Asia-Pacific Markets

In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan's stock market ended a five-day rally, and Chinese stocks declined. The Nikkei 225 ended its five-day winning streak, rising 3.36% for the week. China's Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.59%, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index lost 1.65%. The Shanghai Composite Index has experienced a seven-week decline, last seen in May-July 2018 when it dropped from 3,219 points to 2,691 before rebounding, but still remained in a downward channel.

Currency Markets

The USD experienced a continuous decline last week, ending a four-week winning streak with a cumulative drop of 0.94%, closing at 104.875 points. The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell 0.18%, ending the week down 0.73%. The Euro gained 1.18% against the USD, the Pound rose 1.35%, and the USD fell 0.34% against the Swiss Franc. Among commodity currencies, the AUD gained 1.19%, the NZD rose 0.88%, and the USD fell 0.25% against the CAD.

The offshore RMB rose 150 points or 0.2% against the USD before the US stock market opened, briefly surpassing 7.28 before falling back to the 7.29 level, remaining close to an eight-month low. The USD/JPY fell 0.33% to 160.74, breaking below the 161 mark, reaching a low of 160.35 after the non-farm payroll report, ending the week down 0.09%, showing a pattern of rising and then retreating.

Commodities

Before the weekend, positive non-farm payroll data supported gains in metals, with gold rising for two weeks to the highest level since May and silver gaining over 7.63%; copper rose over 3.59%. Gold continued to climb, rising 2.87% last week, marking its largest weekly gain in nearly 13 weeks. Gold benefited significantly from weak US macro data.

Both oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive week. WTI crude gained 2.10%, and Brent crude rose 2.11%. As summer fuel demand increases, third-quarter oil demand is expected to tighten further, as evidenced by the latest US EIA inventory data. Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.5 million barrels per day this year, higher than the long-term growth rate of 1.2 million barrels per day. With the OPEC+ production cut agreement continuing until September, inventories are expected to decline further in the coming weeks, with Brent crude prices potentially reaching $90 per barrel in the third quarter. The market also predicts Brent prices could hit $90 per barrel in August or September.

Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies experienced a sharp decline before the weekend, with most major cryptocurrencies falling. Bitcoin recorded its largest weekly drop in over a year, with the price falling to an intraday low of $53,536.56, the lowest level since late February. It is currently trading at $56,452.00. Bitcoin fell 5.30% to $56,655.00, down 6.08% for the week. Ethereum fell 4.76% to $2,983.00, down 12.14% for the week. Concerns arose that the defunct Japanese exchange Mt. Gox might sell off Bitcoin, and leveraged investors might further sell after Bitcoin's strong rise.

Outlook for the Week

After a tumultuous week dominated by the UK and French elections, coupled with unease brewing from the upcoming US elections and the June non-farm report, the coming week offers a slight respite with few major economic data releases and financial policy announcements. Here are the key statistics and events likely to shake the markets:

Tuesday

- **Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's Semi-Annual Testimony:** Powell will speak before the Senate Banking Committee on monetary policy. His remarks on the current US economic situation, outlook, and monetary policy will be closely watched. Powell will likely face tough questions from senators, and his responses could provide insights into future Fed policy decisions. Powell emphasized progress on inflation but warned against hastily reacting to this progress as it could reverse the trend. The Fed's latest dot plot suggests only one rate cut in 2024, and traders are now trying to predict the timing of the first cut. Initially expected in September, many now predict significant Fed actions post-November due to the presidential election.

Wednesday

- **New Zealand Inflation Data:** The New Zealand government and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aim to maintain low and stable inflation by setting a target range of 1% to 3%, focusing on around 2%. Recent inflation data exceeded the RBNZ's target, reflecting higher-than-expected costs for goods and services. The RBNZ's decision to keep rates at 5.50% for the seventh consecutive meeting reflects a cautious approach balancing inflation control with supporting national growth.

Friday

- **Loan Growth and Profit Margins:** Investors will focus on whether rising interest rates have curbed second-quarter borrowing activity and how banks balance rising rates with potential loan defaults. Answers to these questions will provide valuable insights into the overall health of the US economy and potentially influence the broader market direction.

Market Overview

Last week's forex market saw significant events, with movements in USD, JPY, GBP, EUR, and CAD in focus. The USD continued its decline following the release of employment data, while uncertainty from the French elections bolstered the EUR. The GBP strengthened on the back of UK election results, whereas the CAD faced pressure from weak domestic employment data.

The forex market's movements last week highlighted the profound impact of global economic data and political events on currency values. The USD continued to decline due to employment data, while other currencies like the GBP and EUR were positively influenced by domestic political developments. The CAD faced challenges due to weak domestic employment data. Looking ahead, the policies of the Fed and other central banks, as well as global political and economic events, will continue to shape forex market trends.

Commodities Overview

The gold market experienced significant volatility this week, with prices approaching $2,400 per ounce. The weak employment data and the release of the Fed meeting minutes supported the rise in gold prices. The market broadly expects gold prices to continue rising due to current economic data and political uncertainty. Despite differing opinions, most analysts and investors are optimistic about gold's short-term outlook. The Fed's actions and upcoming economic data will continue to influence market sentiment and gold prices.

Silver prices reached a three-week high of nearly $31.493 per ounce before the weekend. Following the US June non-farm employment report indicating a weakening labor market, silver strengthened as US bond yields declined. Silver prices attempted to break above the upper line of the descending channel, signaling an end to the correction and a resumption of the upward trend. Silver climbing above $30.000 indicates a bullish outlook in the near term.

The oil market experienced limited volatility last week despite multiple factors influencing prices. The consensus is that while geopolitical and natural disaster uncertainties may impact the short term, long-term support for oil demand and prices will come from steady global economic growth and accommodative monetary policies. As summer demand continues to grow and global economic activity gradually recovers, the oil market is expected to maintain a stable development trajectory.

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This weekly review provides a comprehensive analysis of the financial markets from July 8 to July 12, highlighting key events and trends impacting various asset classes. Investors should remain vigilant of upcoming events and data releases that could shape market movements in the week ahead.

### Key Events and Economic Data Overview (Beijing Time)

#### Key Events:

- **Tuesday, July 9**: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.

- **Wednesday, July 10**: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces interest rate decision and releases monetary policy assessment report.

- **Thursday, July 11**: International Energy Agency (IEA) publishes its monthly oil market report.

- **Friday, July 12**: 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaks on the economy.

#### Economic Data Overview:

- **Monday, July 8**:

  - Australia May Investment Lending for Homes MoM (%)

  - Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index

  - US June ISM Manufacturing PMI

  - US June NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectation (%)

- **Tuesday, July 9**:

  - Australia Weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index (up to July 7)

- **Wednesday, July 10**:

  - US API Crude Oil Stock Change for the week ended July 5 (in million barrels)

  - New Zealand Official Cash Rate Decision (%)

  - US May Wholesale Inventories MoM (final %)

  - US EIA Crude Oil Stock Change for the week ended July 5 (in million barrels)

  - US July IPSOS Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI)

- **Thursday, July 11**:

  - UK May GDP MoM (%)

  - UK May Industrial Production MoM (%)

  - US June CPI YoY (not seasonally adjusted %)

  - US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended July 6 (in 10,000s)

- **Friday, July 12**:

  - France June CPI YoY (final %)

  - US June PPI YoY (%)

  - US July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary)

This overview highlights the major economic events and data releases for the week, which are crucial for investors and analysts to watch for market-moving insights.