US Dollar Index

Heading into the end of last week, the US Dollar Index hovered near 101.90, remaining close to a three-week low of 101.45. A flight to safety drove a sharp decline in US Treasury yields, putting pressure on the dollar. On Thursday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note fell by more than 10 basis points to below 5%, marking a one-month low. Intensifying sell-offs in technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks boosted demand for government bonds. Growing market concerns regarding the sustainability of AI investments—a key driver of US economic growth—have also led to a downward revision in expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Currently, the market assigns a probability of approximately 91% that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged next week, while the likelihood of a rate hike in December stands at around 80%. The US dollar fell sharply against the Japanese yen; the yen typically attracts safe-haven demand during periods of heightened market uncertainty.
The US dollar has come under pressure as doubts deepen regarding the sustainability of the "AI trade." Investor confidence waned after several major technology companies reported quarterly earnings that fell short of expectations. Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has fueled a broader shift toward risk aversion. Reports suggesting that the US and Israel may be preparing further military strikes against Iran—potentially following the upcoming midterm elections—have spurred demand for safe-haven assets, bolstering the yen and the Swiss franc against the US dollar. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials have indicated that there is little urgency to accelerate policy tightening. While Fed official Kevin Warsh recently expressed optimism regarding the inherent resilience of the US economy, he offered no hints as to whether further interest rate hikes would be necessary.

Last week, the US Dollar Index saw an initial rise followed by a decline—a week of volatility characterized by an upward push driven by inflation data, succeeded by profit-taking in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials. The index reached a weekly high of 102.94—a level not seen in approximately 18 months—before pulling back. On Friday, it tested support near 101.60. The weekly candle is likely to close as a bullish line with an upper shadow; while the overall bullish trend remains intact, short-term momentum has clearly waned. The primary market driver was the September CPI, which exceeded expectations and fueled speculation regarding a Federal Reserve rate hike, pushing the dollar higher alongside rising U.S. Treasury yields. Subsequently, Warsh’s remarks—indicating he would not pre-judge interest rate decisions—led the market to lower the probability of an October rate hike. As Treasury yields retreated, investors locked in profits, causing the dollar to fall from its highs. In summary: the medium-term bullish trend persists, but the short-term dynamic has shifted from a one-way rally to high-level consolidation and volatility. A range-bound approach is currently preferable to blindly chasing further gains.

Technical outlook for next week: On the daily chart, the U.S. Dollar Index (spot) is trading at 101.90. The short-term bias remains slightly bullish, as the price holds above the 34-day simple moving average (SMA) of 101.58—a sign that underlying demand persists following the recent rebound from below the 100 level. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 55.50, remaining in a neutral-to-positive zone; this suggests that upward momentum is slowing but has not yet deteriorated. On the downside, initial support is found at the 34-day SMA (101.58) and the 101.60 level (last Friday’s low), with the moving average serving as a key technical floor during this consolidation phase. As long as the 101.00 mark holds against any pullback, the broader constructive tone may continue; however, a decisive break below this level would signal that the bullish phase is losing steam. On the upside, the 102.57 level (the upper Bollinger Band) and 102.53 (the high from October 5) serve as the initial resistance zone. A breakout above these levels would target 102.94 (the high from October 14) and the 103.00 psychological round-number mark.

For today, one might consider shorting the USD at 102.00, with a stop-loss at 102.10 and targets at 101.60 and 101.50.

AUD/USD

Last week, the Australian dollar held above $0.70, trading near multi-week highs. Inflation data, which came in stronger than expected, bolstered market expectations for a fifth interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year. The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by 0.8%—the largest increase in six months and above the 0.7% forecast—while the annual rate climbed to 4.3% from 4.0% in August, surpassing the 4.2% projection and reaching its highest level since March. Monthly core inflation rose by 0.3%, in line with expectations, while the annual core inflation rate edged up from 3.5% to 3.6%, also matching forecasts. With inflation rebounding further above the RBA’s 2%–3% target range, market bets on a rate hike at the November 3 meeting have intensified. Earlier on Wednesday, RBA Governor Michele Bullock noted that upside risks to inflation were emerging and that price pressures were likely to exceed the central bank’s August forecasts. Following the release of the inflation report, the market-implied probability of a rate hike in November jumped from 60% to 88%.

The RBA has raised the cash rate four times so far this year, most recently with a 25-basis-point hike in September, which brought the rate to 4.60%. This path of continued tightening reflects the central bank’s concern that inflation is not subsiding as quickly as anticipated. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser recently stated that the current inflation outlook has deteriorated significantly compared to the forecasts released by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in August—a remark that rapidly shifted market expectations. Previously, the implied probability of a rate hike in November was only about 25%; following Hauser’s comments, this figure surged to over 50%. The market interprets this as a sign that the RBA has become more cautious—or even hawkish—regarding the stickiness of inflation, substantially increasing the likelihood of further rate hikes. This shift in policy communication, combined with the potential for upside surprises in the latest inflation data, has added considerable suspense to the November meeting. Policymakers must contend with short-term shocks from energy prices while also assessing whether inflation in the services sector is becoming entrenched as a more persistent pressure—a determination that will dictate whether the cash rate needs to be raised further to consolidate progress in the fight against inflation.

Last week, the pair traded within a narrow, elevated range of 0.7000–0.7070, ending the week virtually unchanged (down approximately 0.11% from the previous Friday’s close of 0.7033) with a weekly range of about 61 pips. In terms of candlestick patterns, the pair spent the early part of the week consolidating between 0.7010 and 0.7040. Mid-week, Australia’s September CPI data—which came in at 4.3% year-on-year (exceeding the 4.2% forecast and the previous 4.0% reading) and 0.8% month-on-month—pushed the implied probability of an RBA rate hike from roughly 62% to nearly 82%. This triggered a rally, with the exchange rate testing the 0.7064–0.7068 level. However, the pair subsequently retreated under pressure from a strengthening US dollar, forming a candlestick with a long upper shadow; this indicates heavy selling pressure above 0.7060 and a lack of appetite among investors to chase the price higher. Thursday’s long upper shadow, combined with a pullback in intraday indicators from overbought territory, has shifted short-term momentum from bullish to neutral-leaning-bearish. A key signal: this week’s high of 0.7068 aligns with a Fibonacci level at 0.7065, forming a short-term "double top" resistance. To the downside, the 0.7010 level has repeatedly served as a floor, while the 0.7000 psychological mark acts as the battleground between bulls and bears for the week. In summary, last week’s price action—driven by interest-rate-hike expectations—saw an initial rally that stalled within the 0.7060–0.7070 resistance zone, leading to a consolidation at elevated levels. The weekly candle closed flat with an upper shadow; while the bulls maintain a slight edge, upward momentum remains weak, and the market has reached a new equilibrium between bulls and bears within the 0.7000–0.7070 range.

On the daily chart, AUD/USD is trading above 0.70 but remains below both the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.7032 and the 200-day SMA at 0.7057. Despite a recovery from recent lows, the overall tone remains constrained. The 55-day SMA at 0.7070 adds further overhead resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) sits near 51—suggesting that, within an otherwise bearish structure, momentum is showing signs of constructive improvement as the price attempts to reclaim these medium-term moving averages. On the upside, initial resistance is found near the 200-day SMA (0.7057) and the 55-day SMA (0.7070), followed by the 0.7100 psychological level. Further up, the 0.7140 level (the high from September 21) forms a broader resistance zone. On the downside, the first notable support level is found at 0.7000 (a psychological market level), with further support located at 0.6987 (the 25-day simple moving average) and 0.6954 (the low from October 19). Should selling pressure intensify, the 0.7000 mark represents a more substantial medium-term floor.
For today, one might consider going long on the Australian Dollar at 0.7020, with a stop-loss at 0.7010 and a target of 0.7070–0.7080.

GBP/USD

Following the announcement of a prudent budget by UK Chancellor John Healey, the British Pound has held above the 1.34 level against the US Dollar. The budget includes tax and spending measures designed to support households as they navigate what the Chancellor described as a "global economic storm." Healey reaffirmed the government’s commitment to fiscal rules, announcing tax increases targeting banks, the gambling sector, savings, and landlords. Additionally, the government will tighten VAT regulations for online trading platforms and implement measures to cushion the impact of rising household energy bills. He also noted that the government would utilize a portion of its fiscal buffer—which has narrowed from an earlier estimate of £24 billion to £15 billion—to meet key fiscal objectives, while continuing efforts to repair public finances despite the economic fallout from the conflict involving Iran. The budget has had little impact on market expectations for the Bank of England’s policy meeting next week; money markets have fully priced in a rate hike for November 5, with further increases anticipated by February of next year.
Chancellor Healey faces mounting political and economic pressure to deliver concrete measures that alleviate the persistent cost-of-living burden on households, while providing much-needed support to businesses across the country. Volatile energy prices, combined with stubbornly high costs for food and housing, have significantly squeezed the disposable income of ordinary households, fueling growing public demand for fiscal support. Meanwhile, traders will be closely monitoring remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh, looking for any subtle hints regarding the central bank’s outlook on the economy, inflation risks, and future policy stance. A hawkish tone could further boost the U.S. dollar, putting additional pressure on the British pound, while dovish signals might temporarily ease the dollar’s ​​strength, providing the pound with some breathing room.

Review of last week’s technical performance: The weekly candle formed a bullish rebound pattern with a lower shadow (resembling a hammer or the early stages of a bullish engulfing pattern). After extending its previous weakness early in the week, the pair recovered all lost ground in the latter half, closing near its weekly high—a classic "oversold recovery" rather than a definitive trend reversal on the daily timeframe. Heading into the weekend, expectations of a hawkish Bank of England (BoE) provided support, with three consecutive daily gains testing resistance at key moving averages. The market has now almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate hike by the BoE on November 5, which would bring the rate to 4.00%. Meanwhile, the UK’s autumn budget was assessed by institutions (such as BBH) as "neutral" for both the pound and UK government bonds (gilts), as the fiscal drag is expected to be mild and unlikely to alter the BoE’s tightening path. Consequently, the pound continued to climb, testing a dense resistance zone formed by the 100-day and 60-day moving averages. Current technical structure: A potential "double bottom" has begun to take shape around the 1.3269 level; the rebound has reclaimed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (approximately 1.3311), with the next structural hurdle located in the 1.3380–1.3420 resistance zone.

Looking ahead to next week, the daily chart for GBP/USD maintains a mildly bearish short-term bias, as the spot price continues to trade below the upper band of the Bollinger Bands at 1.3438. Although the price is trading above the 9-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3368, the upper Bollinger Band is close by. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 57—a neutral level—suggesting that the currency pair is consolidating within a broader range (capped by overhead supply) rather than initiating a new bullish trend. On the downside, initial support is found at the 9-day SMA (1.3368), followed by the middle Bollinger Band (1.3302) and the 1.3300 psychological level. Further down, the next area of ​​contention lies near 1.3272, the low from last week. On the upside, initial resistance appears at the upper Bollinger Band (1.3438), with further targets at 1.3504 (the high from September 5) and the 1.3500 major market resistance level, where selling pressure may re-emerge. A decisive break above this level could pave the way for a test of the July 15 high at 1.3558.

For today, consider going long on the GBP at 1.3378; stop-loss: 1.3365; targets: 1.3440, 1.3430.

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen strengthened late last week, pushing the USD/JPY pair down toward the 157.10 level—marking the yen’s third consecutive day of gains. This followed the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision to keep its policy interest rate unchanged at 1.25%, in line with market expectations. The central bank noted that underlying inflation has finally reached its 2% target, paving the way for a potential rate hike in December. The decision was reached by an 8-to-1 vote; committee member Hajime Takata dissented, arguing for a hike to 1.5% and asserting that the economy has entered a new phase, necessitating a faster move toward a neutral interest rate. Meanwhile, disappointing earnings from major technology firms reignited concerns regarding AI-related investments, triggering a fresh sell-off in equity markets—a shift that bolstered the yen through increased demand for safe-haven assets. Furthermore, with domestic demand improving and the monetary policy outlook turning more favorable, the relatively higher yields have enhanced the appeal of the Japanese bond market, prompting global asset managers to begin returning to the space.
From the perspective of the yen, the core tension lies in the gap between the tightening already delivered and the further tightening yet to materialize. The BOJ has raised rates by a cumulative 50 basis points this year and is currently in a pause phase to assess the impact of these prior moves. Nevertheless, the market continues to price in one more rate hike before the end of the year, with a strong bias toward action in December. This implies that the yen’s support is driven more by expectations than by current reality; should the BOJ adopt a more cautious tone, or should the market push back its expectations for a December hike, the bullish case for the yen could quickly unravel. Compared to other G10 currencies, the yen finds itself in a relatively vulnerable position: it lacks the dual benefit of high interest rates and safe-haven inflows enjoyed by the U.S. dollar, and—unlike the Canadian dollar—it cannot capitalize on rising oil prices. Instead, it faces a deterioration in its terms of trade due to higher energy costs. This explains why the current rebound in USD/JPY has been relatively gradual, yet has consistently resisted any effective downward pressure. Technical Review from Last Week: Given the high level of confidence among market participants that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will keep its policy rate unchanged, the rate decision itself is unlikely to serve as a major market-moving event for the USD/JPY pair. The true impact will stem from the language used in the BoJ’s monetary policy outlook and any clues regarding its view on the terminal rate. If the BoJ hints that it may approach the terminal rate more quickly, it would be bullish for the Japanese Yen. Conversely, if the BoJ signals a gradual path toward monetary tightening, the impact on the Yen is likely to be limited. Consequently, the risks for USD/JPY are tilted slightly to the downside.
On the daily chart, USD/JPY is trading just above the 157.00 level. For over a month, the pair has remained within a confined range between 156.08 and 159.04. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at 157.92 and is currently flat, reflecting a sideways trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has hovered between 45.00 and 50.00 for the past month, indicating a significant contraction in volatility and reinforcing the ongoing consolidation pattern. Regarding support, the lower bound of the aforementioned range—156.08—serves as immediate support. A failure to hold 156.08, followed by the 156.00 psychological level, would expose the pair to a test of the 155.00 level (the high from September 14). On the upside, immediate resistance lies near last week’s high of 158.35. A decisive break above this level would open the door for further gains toward the upper bound of the consolidation range at 159.04, with the potential for a subsequent move toward the 160.00 mark.

Consider shorting the USD at 157.75 today; stop-loss: 157.90; targets: 157.00, 156.80.

EUR/USD

Before the end of last week, the Euro recovered from an earlier 0.4% decline—having touched its lowest level since May 2025—to edge slightly higher to $1.1200. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde revealed that a rate hike had been discussed today, noting that another increase in December remains highly likely; market pricing currently reflects an over 80% probability of such a move. Lagarde also announced her intention to step down from the ECB early, citing a desire for "greater freedom" to express her views on topics beyond monetary policy. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged, highlighting upside inflation risks stemming from energy prices. Lagarde emphasized that underlying inflation remains stable while financial conditions are tightening—a stance some economists interpret as dovish. Addressing concerns regarding France, Lagarde stated that the ECB possesses the tools to counter irrational market volatility. However, she pointed to rising global bond yields and warned that highly indebted nations must prepare for increased borrowing costs.

EUR/USD remains near its annual lows, driven primarily by the strength of the US Dollar and the unresolved budget crisis in France. Energy prices are at historic highs and could climb further, given the possibility that the US and Israel might launch an attack on Iran following the US midterm elections this week. Within the Eurozone, economic activity remains robust, and GDP data for the third quarter of 2026—released on Friday—is expected to provide a positive signal. Nevertheless, the ECB’s bank lending survey indicates that credit conditions have tightened, and demand for corporate loans has unexpectedly declined.

Review of last week’s technical performance: The pair initially posted five consecutive bearish daily candles, testing lower levels, before forming a "double bottom" and rebounding—closing with a long lower shadow. Early in the week, the previous week’s downward trend persisted, characterized by a series of "lower highs" throughout the day; short-term momentum has shifted to the bearish side. Concerns regarding the French bond market and the European Central Bank’s bank lending survey have exerted downward pressure on the euro. Heading into the weekend, the pair staged a rebound, breaking above the major resistance level of 1.1200. On the 30-minute timeframe, the RSI sits at approximately 66, and the MACD is above its signal line; while the short-term outlook leans bullish, the pair is approaching overbought territory. After testing the 1.11 level twice (at 1.1114 and 1.1103) and subsequently recovering—forming small bearish candles or a "doji" with long lower shadows—the 1.11 support zone has held up in the short term. However, the decline from 1.1256 earlier this week has only retraced about 39%, suggesting that the rebound is merely a correction of an oversold condition rather than a reversal of the medium-term downward structure. The 50-hour moving average (at 1.1142) has shifted to act as support, while the 200-hour moving average (at 1.1198) was breached on Friday, though this remains to be confirmed by the daily close. A bullish divergence at the lows has fueled the rebound, but there is significant selling pressure from investors trapped in long positions at higher levels.

Technical Analysis for Next Week: On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair maintains a bearish tone, as it remains consistently below the 34-day simple moving average (SMA) of 1.1280 and the previous week’s high of 1.1226. The pair is gradually approaching support at the lower Bollinger Band (1.1129), while the 14-period RSI—hovering around 42—remains weak, indicating that despite recent stabilization, upward momentum is still insufficient. On the upside, immediate resistance is concentrated at 1.1226 (last week’s high), with further targets at the 34-day SMA (1.1280) and the 1.1300 psychological level. On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band at 1.1129 provides initial support. A decisive break below this level could open the way toward the 1.1100 psychological mark, with the subsequent target being the low of May 12, 2025, at 1.0951.

For today, consider going long on the Euro at 1.1146; stop-loss: 1.1134; targets: 1.1185, 1.1200.

WTI Crude Oil

Before the end of last week, crude oil prices climbed above $104 per barrel, reaching a five-month high. This followed reports that a senior commander had briefed U.S. President Donald Trump on potential military options, fueling market concerns that the U.S. might resume military strikes against Iran. Trump has repeatedly warned that airstrikes on Tehran could resume following the midterm elections next week. Meanwhile, Iranian officials confirmed that U.S. Vice President James David Vance has sent a letter aimed at restarting peace negotiations. Amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and escalating hostilities between Saudi Arabia and the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, the U.S. crude oil benchmark rose by more than 10% in October. The threat to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains severe, with oil tankers continuing to come under attack. Nevertheless, regional crude oil exports have recovered to near pre-war levels, as producers quietly move oil shipments through this strategically vital waterway.

U.S. Vice President Vance has reached out to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in an attempt to revive peace talks—a diplomatic engagement confirmed by President Trump. However, with the U.S. weighing the possibility of resuming military strikes against Iran, oil prices may continue to find upward support. A senior commander recently briefed President Trump on potential military options, and Trump has repeatedly warned that airstrikes on Tehran could resume after the midterm elections. Despite recent diplomatic overtures, the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and escalating tensions involving Saudi Arabia and the Iranian-backed Houthis have driven a cumulative gain of nearly 14% in the U.S. crude oil benchmark for the month of October. Despite persistent threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing attacks on oil tankers, regional crude oil exports have managed to rebound to near pre-war levels, as producers continue to move shipments through this strategic chokepoint—albeit with a lower profile.

Review of this week’s technical trends: WTI crude has largely traded with a bullish bias at high levels, characterized by a pattern of upward thrusts followed by choppy, two-way fluctuations. While supported by a geopolitical risk premium from the Middle East, the upside momentum has moderated due to a stronger U.S. dollar and profit-taking, preventing a sustained, one-sided rally. The medium-term bullish structure remains intact; the MACD is above the zero line, though the narrowing red bars indicate a weakening of bullish momentum. The RSI remains in a relatively strong zone near 60—short of overbought territory—suggesting that the bullish foundation holds, even if there is insufficient momentum for an immediate, aggressive push, pointing instead to a phase of consolidation. The core dynamic last week: geopolitical supply risks provided a floor for prices, while demand constraints at high price levels, a strengthening dollar, and volatile inventory data triggered frequent profit-taking—leading to rapid pullbacks following sharp gains and an increase in market volatility 

Technical outlook for next week: On the daily chart, WTI crude is trading near $104 per barrel, with an overall bullish bias. The price remains above both the 9-day simple moving average ($100.26) and the psychological $100.00 level, confirming an intact bullish structure. The RSI (14) sits at approximately 64.38—firmly in bullish territory but not yet overbought—implying further upside potential, though likely accompanied by short-term consolidation. Key resistance to watch lies first at the upper Bollinger Band (near $105.59); a decisive breakout here would be required to open further upside, potentially challenging the previous high in the $110.00 range. For support, the first level to watch is the 9-day simple moving average (SMA) at 100.26, which has turned into support following a breakout. Below that lies the $100 mark—a level serving as both a psychological and technical support. Should a deeper pullback occur, the next test would be the structural support zone near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, at approximately $96.17.

Consider going long on crude oil today at 101.90; stop-loss: 101.80; targets: 103.00, 104.00.

Spot Gold

Before the end of last week, spot gold plummeted to a new low for the year at $3,870, falling below the $3,900 mark for the first time since October of last year. A slight rise in the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, combined with a deterioration in risk appetite and hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve, placed significant pressure on gold prices, which fell by more than 3.0% over the week. Following a breach of the key support level at $3,886 on October 28, 2025, the price action suggests the potential for further downward movement. Spot gold saw a sharp decline, touching an intraday low of $3,870—a level not seen in nearly a year—and appears set to close the month in the red for the second consecutive time. While the decline may superficially appear to be a one-sided move driven by inflation data, the underlying market dynamics are far more complex. Persistent U.S. inflation has reinforced expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, serving as the primary bearish catalyst for gold. Conversely, a pullback in the U.S. Dollar Index and U.S. Treasury yields, alongside a decline in international oil prices, has provided a degree of a buffer and support for the metal. The tug-of-war between bulls and bears has become particularly stark at this critical juncture.

The U.S. economic calendar for the coming week is packed. Markets will be focused on the October ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs, as well as a series of labor market indicators—including JOLTS job openings, ADP employment changes, initial jobless claims, and the week’s centerpiece: the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Following the latest FOMC meeting, industrial metals have struggled, even as gold has maintained relative strength. While gold has shown notable resilience, industrial precious metals—such as silver and the platinum group metals (PGMs)—have significantly lagged, with macroeconomic headwinds and the prospect of tighter policy weighing on the demand outlook. This divergence underscores a more defensive tone across the precious metals sector, as investors favor gold over metals that are more sensitive to the economic cycle. The global gold market has faced significant selling pressure. Last week, gold experienced overall weakness with a downward drift; any intraday rebounds were merely feeble corrections rather than signs of a genuine reversal. With successive highs trending lower, the price action remained confined within a classic descending channel. The weekly candle closed in the red, and the moving averages are aligned in a bearish configuration. On the weekly timeframe, the 4,000 level serves as the critical pivot between bulls and bears; repeated attempts to reclaim this level failed, signaling the collapse of any bullish counterattack and confirming that the broader corrective phase remains intact. On the daily chart, the price continues to face pressure, with rebounds capped by the median line of the Bollinger Bands. The MACD remains below the zero line, indicating that bearish momentum prevails. While the RSI is approaching the oversold zone—suggesting a temporary deceleration in the rate of decline—there is no clear bullish divergence to signal a reversal; the slowdown in the pace of the drop should not be mistaken for a bottom. In summary, last week’s market was primarily weighed down by interest rate expectations, characterized by a weak, range-bound pattern—essentially a consolidation phase within a larger downtrend, lacking any signals of a bottoming-out or reversal.

Technical Outlook for Next Week: The primary expectation is for range-bound testing, with a persistent bearish bias. Only a firm stabilization above the 4,000 pivot level would reverse the short-term bearish structure. Conversely, a breakdown below the 3,886–3,970 support zone would extend the downtrend, with potential targets toward 3,800 or even 3,500. On the daily chart, the breach of the 3,900 level has shifted the overall trend to the downside, opening the door for a potential test of 12-month lows. Bearish momentum is strengthening as the asset approaches oversold territory—a trend further corroborated by the RSI. Should the Gold/USD pair close below the October 28, 2025, low of 3,886 on the daily timeframe, the next target will be 3,800. Should the price fall below this level, the next area to watch is $3,580—a former swing high from September 2025 that has now turned into support. For a bullish reversal to occur, buyers must push the price above the $3,900 and $4,000 marks. This would pave the way for a test of the $4,100 level.

For today, consider going long on gold at $3,870; stop-loss: $3,865; targets: $3,900, $3,920.