Equity Analysis
Australia ASX 200 Index
Market Overview
The S&P/ASX 200 fell 60 points, or 0.7%, on Thursday to close at 8,749, erasing the previous session’s modest gain and touching its lowest level in two weeks. Stronger-than-expected employment growth in Australia in May reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may maintain a hawkish stance. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser also stressed that inflation remains “too high” and that further work may be needed.

Losses were capped by firmer US equity-index futures, after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq had declined for a third straight session, led lower by technology stocks. Non-energy materials, energy, electronic technology, and industrial services were weak. Gold miners also declined as gold fell to a seven-month low, with Evolution Mining down 3.9% and Northern Star Resources down 3.1%. The four major banks fell between 1.2% and 3.7%. Energy names such as Woodside (-3.3%) and Santos (-2.6%) retreated as oil prices slipped back toward pre-Iran-conflict levels. Judo Capital plunged 39% after cutting its 2026 earnings outlook.

Technical Analysis
The ASX 200 closed Thursday at 8,773.8, down 0.4% on the day. The index printed a medium bearish candle that engulfed the previous session’s small bullish candle, forming a bearish engulfing reversal pattern. Selling pressure was released after the employment data, and the short-term structure is now clearly tilted toward a weaker range-bound bias.

RSI (14) is at 51.59, a neutral reading that is neither overbought nor oversold, pointing to a lack of clear directional momentum. MACD remains above the zero line, but the red histogram bars continue to contract and the two lines are approaching a potential bearish cross, suggesting fading bullish momentum. Volume shows expanding turnover on declines and shrinking turnover on rebounds, implying that funds are reducing exposure into strength and that buy-side support is limited.

In the near term, bears have the advantage after Thursday’s pressured close. A rebound above 8,800 is the preferred area to look for short setups. The 8,680 level is the key line between bulls and bears. If it holds, the broader range structure remains intact; if it breaks, a deeper correction may follow. Strategy should favour selling rallies. Bottom-fishing should be attempted only after bullish divergence appears around key support, and only with light exposure and strict stops.

New Zealand 50 Index (NZX 50)
Market Overview
The NZX 50 rose 92 points, or 0.7%, on Thursday to 13,493, erasing the previous three sessions of losses. Gains were driven mainly by energy, healthcare, consumer, and communication-services stocks. The broader index followed US futures higher after Micron Technology delivered better-than-expected earnings and an upbeat outlook.

The retreat in oil prices also improved market sentiment by easing inflation concerns and reducing expectations for rate increases. However, traders remained cautious ahead of the final US first-quarter GDP reading and the May personal consumption expenditures price index, both of which could provide guidance for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary-policy decisions.

Currency Analysis
US Dollar Index
Market Overview and Technical View
The US Dollar Index traded near 101.40 on Thursday, remaining close to its highest level in more than a year as investors continued to price in the possibility that the Federal Reserve could raise rates later this year. The market is also waiting for a key inflation report for further direction.

The dollar’s strength has not been accidental. Since the Federal Reserve delivered a clearly hawkish signal at last week’s policy meeting, expectations for rate hikes this year have risen sharply. Traders are preparing for the possibility that the Fed could begin raising rates in July or September, with the probability of a September hike climbing to around 66%. Comments from Fed officials reinforced this view: with the economy appearing solid, the policy focus has shifted toward suppressing inflation rather than simply supporting growth.

The Fed’s hawkish stance, the dollar’s rise to a 13-month high, and mild month-end buying signals have kept the short-term dollar structure firm, even though quarterly models are issuing some sell signals. The US technology-led equity selloff has also indirectly supported the dollar’s safe-haven appeal.

This round of dollar strength is not being driven by a single factor. It reflects a combination of a decisive hawkish turn in Federal Reserve policy, stronger-than-expected resilience in the US labour market, repeated geopolitical disruptions around the US and Iran, and a risk-off rotation in global equities that has encouraged allocation into the dollar and US Treasuries. These forces have produced the current strong-dollar regime, even as the market has shown the unusual divergence of a rising dollar alongside falling US Treasury yields.

The bullish structure in the Dollar Index remains intact, and the index is likely to test the 102.00 threshold gradually. The main factors that could cap further dollar gains are renewed easing in US-Iran tensions and a recovery in global risk appetite. Technically, the Dollar Index has broken out of a large long-term consolidation range and defused the double-top risk. Upside targets sit at 101.80 and then 102.14. Downside focus is on 101.00, the psychological level, and 100.76, this week’s low.

Trade Idea
Today, consider shorting the Dollar Index at 101.56. Stop: 101.66. Targets: 101.20 and 101.10.
 

AUD/USD
Market Overview and Technical View
AUD/USD fell for an eighth consecutive session and traded near 0.6900 during Thursday’s Asian session. The pair remained weak after Australian labour-market data kept the Australian dollar under pressure.

According to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australia’s labour market showed a strong recovery in May. The unemployment rate edged down from 4.5% in April to 4.4%, in line with market expectations. The details showed that the participation rate stayed unchanged at 66.7%, while labour-force expansion was mainly driven by part-time jobs.

As expectations rise that the Federal Reserve could raise rates later this year, the US dollar may continue to strengthen, keeping AUD/USD under pressure. Traders expect monetary policy to tighten after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stressed a firm commitment to containing inflation and noted that the overall economy remains stable. Reflecting this hawkish shift, the CME FedWatch tool showed the market-implied probability of a rate increase by year-end rising to 83.1%.

On the daily chart, AUD/USD is quoted at 0.6905 and remains in a bearish phase below the 55-day and 100-day simple moving averages, at 0.7124 and 0.7083 respectively. Although the pair is still holding above the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6857, its structure remains capped. RSI (14) is deep in oversold territory near 26.7, while ADX (14) has climbed above 35, indicating that downside pressure remains persistent even if the selloff may be stretched.

On the downside, initial support lies near the 200-day simple moving average at 0.6856, followed by nearby horizontal support at 0.6833. A clear break below this area would expose the 0.6800 threshold. On the upside, rebound attempts face immediate resistance near 0.6945, the 5-day simple moving average, followed by 0.7000, the key psychological level.

Trade Idea
Today, consider buying AUD at 0.6900. Stop: 0.6890. Targets: 0.6950 and 0.6960.

GBP/USD
Market Overview and Technical View
GBP/USD recovered toward 1.3195 during Thursday’s Asian session, reclaiming part of its earlier losses. However, upside for the major pair may remain limited by political instability in the United Kingdom and rising expectations for US rate hikes this year.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer resigned on Monday, pushing the country into another political crisis. Starmer stepped down under heavy pressure after Andy Burnham won the Wakefield by-election last week. Labour must now elect a new leader to govern the country, and traders will closely watch Burnham’s policy direction. Analysts warn that Burnham’s preference for expansionary fiscal policy, higher taxes, and increased gilt issuance could weigh on sterling against the US dollar.

At the same time, traders are repricing the timing of possible Federal Reserve rate hikes after the Fed’s hawkish signal. Markets are pricing in a roughly 34.2% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the July meeting.

From the current market structure, UK political risk, the Fed’s hawkish stance, and broad-based dollar strength remain the core drivers of GBP/USD. Unless fresh positive news emerges, sterling may continue to face downside pressure in the short term.

Technically, GBP/USD has already broken below its previous daily consolidation range, and the downtrend is becoming clearer. Price continues to trade below the major moving averages, indicating a broadly bearish market. MACD is running below the zero line, and the green histogram continues to expand, showing that bears remain in control.

Key resistance is at 1.3300, the psychological level, and around 1.3292, the 9-day moving average. If the pair cannot regain 1.3300, rebound potential is likely to remain limited. Further resistance lies near 1.3356, the 20-day moving average. Downside support is at 1.3150, which also marks the April low and the lower boundary of this year’s trading range. A daily close below this level would confirm the break and open the path toward 1.3100.

Trade Idea
Today, consider buying GBP at 1.3180. Stop: 1.3170. Targets: 1.3230 and 1.3240.

USD/JPY
Market Overview and Technical View
The yen traded around 161.80 per US dollar on Thursday, still close to its weakest level since 1986, as repeated verbal intervention from officials provided little support. Earlier this week, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said she had spoken with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and reiterated a shared commitment to coordinating on foreign-exchange markets if necessary.

The yen remains under pressure because of dollar strength and the wide interest-rate gap between the United States and Japan. The market remains sceptical about whether Tokyo is willing to conduct further currency intervention, after record-sized interventions over the past two months significantly reduced foreign-exchange reserves. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s June meeting summary showed that policymakers broadly supported continued rate hikes, citing progress in underlying inflation toward the 2% target and financial conditions that remain accommodative.

Overall, USD/JPY is likely to remain in a short-term tug-of-war. The Fed’s hawkish stance and rising rate-hike expectations provide support beneath the pair, while the threat of Japanese government intervention and the Bank of Japan’s potential rate adjustments continue to limit the upside. Key drivers ahead will be changes in Fed policy expectations, the timing of any Japanese intervention, and domestic Japanese inflation data. With bullish and bearish factors alternating, USD/JPY is unlikely to establish a one-way short-term trend.

On the daily chart, USD/JPY remains in a clear uptrend. Price continues to trade above the major moving averages, and the medium- to long-term bullish structure is intact. The pair is holding above the key 160.00 psychological level, indicating that buyers remain dominant. Resistance is focused on the 162.00 historical-high area. A decisive break could open new upside, with 163.50 and 165.00 as the next regions to watch. Support lies at 160.00 and 158.70; the latter is close to the 20-week exponential moving average and is important for the medium-term trend.

Trade Idea
Today, consider shorting the US dollar at 161.95. Stop: 162.10. Targets: 161.20 and 161.00.

EUR/USD
Market Overview and Technical View
EUR/USD fell to around 1.1370 in early Thursday Asian trading. The euro declined to its lowest level against the US dollar since June 2025 as traders increased bets on US rate hikes later this year.

Since newly appointed Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed would focus on inflation while the overall economy appeared solid, traders have been positioning for potential rate increases this year. The market now prices a 34.2% probability of a 25-basis-point hike at the July meeting, up from 8.5% a week earlier, and a 66.4% probability of a September hike, up from 29.1% a week earlier.

The dollar’s current strength ultimately reflects hawkish expectations. Fed funds futures are now showing one of the highest rate-hike probabilities seen in some time. Easing US-Iran tensions may also help cap oil prices and increase expectations that the European Central Bank could turn more dovish, which may weigh on the euro in the short term.

Technically, spot price remains below the 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart, preserving a short-term bearish bias. MACD is in negative territory, while RSI is hovering around 38. Together, these momentum indicators suggest that downside pressure remains even as EUR/USD attempts to stabilise above recent swing lows.

Any subsequent rise is more likely to run into resistance near the broken support zone at 1.1500-1.1550 before the 1.1600 psychological level. The 200-period simple moving average at 1.1590 should act as a strong resistance level that bulls need to reclaim before the current bearish bias can ease and a more sustained recovery can begin. On the downside, a break below 1.1350 would expose EUR/USD to further weakness toward 1.1300, as momentum still tilts lower.

Trade Idea
Today, consider buying EUR at 1.1357. Stop: 1.1345. Targets: 1.1420 and 1.1410.

Commodity Analysis
WTI Spot Crude Oil
Market Overview and Technical View
Crude oil prices briefly fell below USD 70 per barrel on Thursday, declining for a fourth straight session and nearly erasing all gains made since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. The decline came as improved progress in US-Iran peace efforts strengthened the supply outlook.

Growing confidence in a lasting agreement encouraged more tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and switch on tracking signals. Supply in key market regions also increased, with buyers facing ample crude offers from the Middle East and other export regions, including West Africa. In addition, temporary US waivers allowing the purchase of Iranian oil already loaded on ships are expected to further increase available supply. Reflecting weaker sentiment, Brent’s prompt time spread, a closely watched market indicator, moved into bearish contango on Wednesday for the first time since the conflict began.

Investors are still closely watching the next phase of negotiations and global demand conditions. If global economic growth remains stable, especially with summer travel demand, crude consumption may still offer some support to prices. US crude-inventory changes, OPEC+ production policy, and manufacturing data from major economies will also continue to influence the market outlook.

From the daily chart, WTI has continued to trade within a descending channel after pulling back from earlier highs. Price has fallen toward USD 69.00, and the broader structure remains dominated by sellers. The moving averages are aligned bearishly, confirming that the medium-term trend is still weak.

Important support is at USD 66.00-67.00. A break below this area could lead to a further test of support near USD 64.81, the February 27 low. On the upside, focus is on resistance at USD 72.00, the psychological level, and USD 74.50, the 9-day moving average. Only a recovery above USD 73.00 would suggest that the recent downtrend structure is beginning to reverse.

Trade Idea
Today, consider buying crude oil at 71.20. Stop: 71.00. Targets: 73.00 and 74.00.

Spot Gold
Market Overview and Technical View
The global gold market is undergoing a dramatic midweek turn. Spot gold fell sharply by 2.7% and closed at USD 3,998.95 per ounce, breaking below the key USD 4,000 psychological level and marking its lowest point in more than seven months. Intraday, gold touched USD 3,959.50 per ounce, its lowest level since November 2025. The sudden drop caught gold bulls off guard after prices had reached record highs earlier in the year, and it prompted the market to reassess the longer-term outlook for precious metals.

With the US Dollar Index rebounding strongly, Fed rate-hike expectations rising, and geopolitical tensions easing, gold’s safe-haven appeal has dimmed for now. In early Asian trading on Thursday, June 25, spot gold moved narrowly around the USD 4,000 level and traded near USD 4,010 per ounce.

Investor focus has quickly shifted back to the macro backdrop. A stronger US dollar was the direct catalyst for gold’s weakness. As the Dollar Index rose to a 13-month high and approached 102, dollar-denominated gold became more expensive for holders of other currencies, naturally suppressing demand.

Overall, gold is at a key turning point. Federal Reserve policy uncertainty, the dollar’s strong inertia, and supply-related easing from calmer geopolitics are all creating short-term downside pressure. From a medium- to long-term perspective, central-bank gold buying, the possibility of renewed geopolitical risk, and global economic uncertainty still provide structural support. Investors should closely monitor the Fed’s next move, implementation of any Iran agreement, and oil-price trends.

In the current environment, gold may struggle to recover quickly to its previous highs, but it is also not certain to fall in a straight line. The USD 3,900 area may become an important test. Short-term price action remains bearish. On the daily chart, gold is clearly below the 5-day simple moving average at 4,089 and below USD 4,100, both of which now form strong overhead pressure.

Momentum indicators reinforce the negative bias. RSI is hovering near the 30 line and has not yet shown signs that downside momentum is exhausted. Immediate support is at USD 3,900. A break below that level would point toward USD 3,850.

Trade Idea
Today, consider buying gold at 4,020. Stop: 4,015. Targets: 4,080 and 4,070.