Dollar Index

The dollar rose slightly in early trading on Tuesday, hitting a three-week high of 104.37, mainly due to strong US service data and cautious optimism about tariff policy. President Trump said that not all tariffs he threatened would be implemented on April 2, and some countries might be exempted, which eased market concerns about slowing US economic growth, thus driving the dollar's gains. For most of this year, the dollar has been under pressure as the market's assumption that Trump would quickly introduce pro-growth policies turned into concerns about the implementation and ultimate impact of trade tariffs. Data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday showed that speculators turned net bearish on the dollar last week for the first time since October. The future direction of the dollar will depend on the specific implementation of Trump's tariff policy and the direction of global economic growth, and the market's reaction is still full of variables.

The dollar index has marked a four-day winning streak, rebounding to a narrow range above 104.00. The 14-day 1 RSI (relative strength index) of the daily chart's technical indicators continues to gradually rise, while the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) bearish momentum weakens. For the current trend, the key resistance level is 104.63 (21-day simple moving average). A breakout points to the 200-day simple moving average of 104.97, and the round number of 105.00. As for support, 103.78 (10-day simple moving average) is the first target, then 103.20 (this year's low), and 103.00 (round number) may be considered as bearish targets. If it falls further, it will directly target the 102.53 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of 100.16 to 110.18) level.

Consider shorting the US dollar index near 104.16 today, stop loss: 104.30, target: 103.75, 103.65

WTI spot crude oil

WTI crude oil rose in early trading in the European session on Tuesday. It traded at $69.40 per barrel, up from the $69.05 close on Monday. WTI prices rose to a three-week high as US President Trump said he would impose tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan oil and gas. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could lead to disruptions in crude oil supplies in the region, provided some support to WTI prices. Israel continued its air strikes in Gaza, ending a nearly two-month ceasefire with Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to act "with increasing military force" to rescue hostages and disarm Hamas. However, hopes for a positive outcome to the Russia-Ukraine peace talks could put pressure on black gold. At present, oil prices are fluctuating between the expectation of increased supply brought about by the ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and the support of OPEC+'s production cut policy. In the short term, market sentiment may continue to be affected by geopolitical events and OPEC+ policies.

After continuing the rise of last week (the largest weekly increase since the first week of 2025) at the beginning of the week, WTI crude oil prices continued to rebound, reaching a high of $69.22, indicating that the expectation of tightening supply is dominant. In the short term, WTI oil prices may fluctuate between $65.05 (March 11 low) and $70.00 (market psychological barrier) per barrel, and the short-term trend depends on the progress of the ceasefire negotiations and the implementation of OPEC+. If Russia's supply returns significantly, WTI crude oil may fall to $65/barrel; conversely, further restrictions on Iran's exports may push up prices to $70/barrel. The 14-day RSI, a technical indicator of the daily chart, is rising, and oil prices have initially built a bottom near $65 this month, indicating that short-term oil prices will tend to rise. The current resistance level is $70.00 (market psychological level). If it breaks, there is a clear tendency to bottom out. The extended target will be $72.51, the 200-day moving average. The support level is estimated at $67.07 per barrel (last week's low), and the larger support is expected to extend to $65.05 (March 11 low).

Today, you can consider going long on crude oil around 69.30, stop loss: 69.10; target: 71.00; 71.20

Spot gold

On Tuesday, gold prices struggled to maintain intraday gains during the European session, although they managed to stay above the psychological level of $3,000, and are currently fluctuating around $3.020. Global risk sentiment is supported by hopes that US trade tariffs will be less destructive, optimism about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement, and China's stimulus measures. In addition, the US dollar maintained its recent rebound from a near three-week high hit on Monday, which in turn formed resistance for precious metals. However, the growing acceptance of the Fed to resume its rate-cutting cycle soon has kept dollar bulls in check in making aggressive bets and provided some support to the yield-free gold price. Moreover, the lack of follow-through selling below the key $3,000 level calls for caution before confirming that gold has peaked in the short term and is ready for a continuation of the recent pullback from the all-time highs. Traders are now looking forward to the release of US economic data for short-term opportunities.

The uptrend in gold prices remains intact, although traders started taking profits when the gold/dollar pair fell below $3,000 at the beginning of the week, threatening the psychological $3,000 market level. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator on the daily chart, fell for the second consecutive day, clearing the previous high of the index. This suggests that bears are in control. If the 3,000 level is breached, the next focus will be $2,982 (last week's low), and further down to test the February 24 high of $2,956, and $2,945.00 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement of 2,832.50 to 3,057.50). On the contrary, if gold prices remain above $3,000, the first resistance will be $3,033 (Monday's high), and $2,945.00 (50.0% Fibonacci retracement of 2,832.50 to 3,057.50), followed by the year's high of $3,057.

Consider going long on gold before 3,013 today, stop loss: 3,010; target: 3,032.00; 3.035.00

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar remained stable after Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers presented the 2025/26 budget to Parliament along with Treasury's key economic forecasts, including two rounds of new tax cuts totaling about AUD17.1 billion. The Australian dollar found support and returned above the key psychological level of 0.6300 as investors expected the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep interest rates unchanged in April. Previously, the bank made its first rate cut in four years in February. In addition, expectations of Chinese stimulus measures continue to support the Australian economy given the strong trade relationship between the two countries. Nevertheless, the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair may face potential resistance as traders remain cautious ahead of Trump's tariff announcement scheduled for April 2. Although Trump hinted that "many" countries may be exempted, the details of his government's tariff plan remain unclear.

The intraday gains of AUD/USD at the beginning of this week faced resistance at 0.6300 (a psychological level) after the opening of this week. Currently, the pair is still below the 100-day moving average at 0.6330, which continues to serve as an immediate ceiling. The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a new red bar, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises slightly to 48, still staying in the negative territory. These signals emphasize that despite a certain rebound, the upward momentum remains limited. In terms of horizontal, resistance is around 0.6330, the 100-day moving average. If it breaks through, the next resistance range is around 0.6363 (March 20 high), and 0.6400 (round mark). On the downside, the initial support is around 0.6258 (last week's low), followed by the March low of 0.6225.

Today, you can consider going long on the Australian dollar before 0.6310, stop loss: 0.6295; target: 0.6350; 0.6360.

GBP/USD

The British pound traded cautiously against its major pairs on Tuesday. The pound came under pressure as British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves prepared to release her Spring Statement on Wednesday. GBP/USD stabilized around 1.2950 in the European session on Tuesday, having gained in the previous session. However, the exchange rate remained firm amid a downward correction in the US dollar. The US dollar strengthened due to strong S&P services PMI data and cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P Global Services PMI surged to 54.3 in March, a three-month high, while the composite PMI rose to 53.5, marking the strongest expansion since December 2024. The risk-sensitive GBP/USD exchange rate may face resistance as traders remain cautious ahead of US President Trump's tariff announcement scheduled for April 2. Although Trump hinted that "many" countries may be exempted, the details of the tariff plan remain uncertain. Meanwhile, the pound received support from strong UK PMI data, showing signs of economic recovery.

From the recent weekly trend observation, GBP/USD has stopped the technical decline from the recent highs, ending two consecutive days of decline. However, the pair's rise is still limited by the 1.2972 (Friday's high) and the 1.3000 market psychological level. The GBP/USD exchange rate has formed new technical resistance at this key regional level. Once the above area is broken, it indicates that the overall trend is bullish. And further points to the 1.3048 (November 6 last year's high) and the 1.3100 round number level. On the other hand, the GBP/USD bullish momentum seems to have further faded, and buying has gradually become weak. Technical oscillators have been in the overbought area since January, and it may be time for a longer-term correction. Looking down, 1.2861 will serve as the first support level for the currency pair, while the key support range is 1.2800 (round number), and 1.2799 (200-day moving average).

It is recommended to go long on GBP before 1.2940 today , Stop Loss: 1.2925, Target: 1.2980, 1.2990

USD/JPY

USD/JPY fell sharply to near 149.70 during the North American trading session on Tuesday. The pair plunged as the yen outperformed other currencies on expectations that the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates again. During the European session on Tuesday, USD/JPY continued to retreat, in line with the cautious market. Data and Bank of Japan policy may take a back seat for the time being, with the focus turning to the reciprocal tariffs imposed by Trump on April 2. The pair hit a high of 150.94 earlier before retreating to 150. The minutes of the Bank of Japan's January meeting showed that policymakers discussed under what conditions the central bank should raise interest rates further, which in turn provided some support to the yen. In addition, the sharp narrowing of the interest rate differential between Japan and other countries is also another factor limiting further depreciation of the yen. At the same time, global risk sentiment was supported by the market's hopes that US President Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs will be narrower and looser than initially feared. In addition, optimism about a possible Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and China's measures to stimulate consumption further boosted investor confidence. This has made yen bulls reluctant to make aggressive bets, while the recent rebound of the US dollar from multi-month lows has also provided support for USD/JPY.

From a technical perspective, the breakout above the 150.00 psychological mark and the subsequent upside breakout above last week’s swing high (around the 150.15 area) to the 150.94 high are seen as key triggers for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart are gaining positive momentum, supporting the prospect of further appreciation of the USD/JPY pair. Therefore, a breakout above the 151.00 round number mark and a test of the monthly swing high in the 151.30 area seems to be a distinct possibility. On the other hand, any corrective pullback may now attract new buyers in the 150.15 area, which should help limit the downside risk around the 150.00 market psychological mark. However, a valid break below this level could drag the USD/JPY pair to the intermediate support of 149.30-149.25, further downside to the 149.00 round number mark and the 148.70-148.65 horizontal area.

Today, we recommend shorting the US dollar before 150.10, stop loss: 150.30; target: 149.10, 148.90

EUR/USD

EUR/USD found support near 1.0780 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pairs attracted buying due to a narrower-than-expected tariff agenda from US President Trump and optimistic S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March, although the US dollar still struggled to rise further. EUR/USD attracted some buying and now appears to have ended a four-day losing streak. Spot prices recaptured the 1.0800 mark amid weak US dollar price action, although this rise lacked bullish confidence. In the early trading session, EUR/USD wave tested and fell below the 1.0800 mark, and market sentiment continued to be affected by mixed economic data and ongoing tariff concerns. Investors found some relief after US President Trump hinted at possible exemptions for tariffs originally scheduled for April 2, but the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) survey results still warned that more problems may arise. Investors seized on the suggestion that Trump might consider tariff exemptions for his own trade policy “strategy”, bolstering sentiment and keeping the dollar range-bound.

From a technical perspective, the overnight break and close above 1.0814 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent move from 1.0360 to 1.0955) is seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. This in turn supports the prospect of a continuation of the correction from the yearly highs hit earlier this week and further down to the confluence of 1.0725. The latter includes the very important 200-day simple moving average at 1.0726, and the 1.0727 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) level and the 1.0700 round number, which should act as strong support for EUR/USD on the daily chart. On the other hand, the overnight highs around the 1.0858 area now appear to be acting as an immediate barrier, a break of which could trigger a wave of short-term covering, allowing the EUR/USD pair to recapture the 1.0900 round number. Momentum could extend further, retesting multi-month highs around the 1.0955 area before spot prices finally climb to the 1.1000 psychological level for the first time since early October 2024.

Today, it is recommended to go long on the euro before 1.0788, stop loss: 1.0775, target: 1.0835, 1.0850.

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