US Dollar Index

US President Trump said on Saturday (June 21) that the US military had "successfully struck" three Iranian nuclear facilities. Trump said that the strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities, including Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, were completed very successfully. All (US military) aircraft are now outside Iranian airspace. Fully loaded bombs were dropped on the primary facility - Fordow. All aircraft are on their way back safely. The US dollar index rebounded from a low of 97.68 to a high of 99.16 for the week last week. It retreated to 98.54 before the weekend, but remained on track for this week's profits as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran and the possibility of US involvement drove safe-haven demand. In terms of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged earlier last week, while maintaining a cautious, data-dependent attitude in the face of growing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Fed Chairman Powell warned that inflation could rise in the coming months, partly due to the inflationary effects of Trump's tariff policy.

The US dollar index rebounded from a low of 97.68 to a high of 99.16 at the beginning of last week, and then fell back to a high over the weekend, showing signs of repeated fluctuations, indicating a game between longs and shorts, and there may be some selling pressure on the top. The daily chart shows that the US dollar index may be forming a short-term (at least) top at 99.38 {high so far this month} and 99.42 {30-day simple moving average}. If short covering continues, it may push this level into the spotlight, but given the overall downward trend, selling pressure may reappear when approaching this key resistance area. If this level is effectively broken, it may indicate a more aggressive bullish reversal to 99.72 {55-day simple moving average} and 100.00 {market psychological level}, especially in the context of increased geopolitical risks. If it falls below 98.55 {9-day simple moving average}, losses may intensify and resume the decline to 98.04 {June 17 low} and 98.00 {round number} area. If it breaks, it will continue to test 97.68 {last week's low}. Short-term targets 97.22 {March 22, 2022 low}, and 97.00 {integer mark} area.

Today, you can consider going long on the US dollar index around 98.70, stop loss: 98.60, target: 99.10, 99.20

WTI spot crude oil

U.S. President Trump said on June 21 that the U.S. military had "successfully struck" three Iranian nuclear facilities. The market will initially panic and oil prices will open higher. WTI crude oil is heading for a third consecutive weekly gain as escalating hostilities in the Middle East continue to raise concerns about regional supply disruptions. Israel and Iran continue to exchange strikes, with Israel ordering intensified strikes on strategic and government targets in Tehran. The escalation came after reports that Iranian missiles hit an important Israeli hospital. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the White House as President Trump weighs the possibility of launching a direct military strike against Iran, with a decision expected within two weeks. Despite the heightened risks, reports suggest Iran is maintaining crude oil exports, loading 2.2 million barrels per day so far last week, the highest level in five weeks. In addition, oil prices were supported by an unexpected drop in U.S. crude oil inventories earlier last week, with government data showing the largest weekly drop in a year.

From the weekly chart, WTI oil prices rose to $75.54, a high since the beginning of the year, last week, but gapped down to $73.00 before the weekend, indicating hesitation among market participants about continued resistance. It also indicates that oil prices may face upward pressure in the short term. The next few days will have a profound impact on the trend of oil prices. Global markets are holding their breath to wait and see the next step in this Middle East game. The 14-week relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator, fluctuated in the 65.00-70.00 range, indicating a sharp contraction in volatility. If oil prices break through the June 19 high of $75.54, it will extend to the stronger resistance level of $76.27 {January 22 high}, and the psychological barrier of $80.00. On the contrary, if it falls below $71.20 {60-week simple moving average}, and the June 18 low of $71.20, it will be exposed to the $70.00 sentiment barrier.

Today, you can consider going long on WTI crude oil around 73.70, stop loss: 73.55, target: 76.00, 76.50

Spot gold

US President Trump said on June 21 that the US military had "successfully struck" three Iranian nuclear facilities. With the US attack on Iran over the weekend, tensions in the Middle East are bound to escalate again, and it is necessary to prepare for a sharp rebound in gold prices at the beginning of the week. Gold fell below the 9-day simple moving average of $3,374.50 to $3,340 an ounce on Friday, trading at a one-week low and heading for its first weekly decline in three weeks as investors sold gold to make up for losses in other markets. Heightened geopolitical tensions offset pressure from the Fed's hawkish stance, and gold price fluctuations were limited. Tensions in the Middle East escalated, Israel and Iran continued to attack each other, and Israel stepped up its strikes on strategic and government targets in Tehran after reports that Iranian missiles hit an important Israeli hospital. Investors also focused on the White House, where President Trump is considering direct military action against Iran and is expected to make a decision within two weeks. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged earlier this week and hinted at two rate cuts before the end of the year, despite Chairman Powell's warning that tariffs could continue to push up prices. The latest Fed forecasts show weak economic growth, rising inflation and falling employment in 2025. Stubborn inflation could limit rate cuts, putting pressure on non-yielding gold.

From a technical perspective, the intraday decline dragged the price below the 9-day simple moving average at $3,375.60 and into the key support of the lower line of the short-term ascending channel at $3,355. Considering that the oscillators on the daily chart lost steam and gained negative momentum on the hourly chart, the subsequent selling should pave the way for a retracement slide from the near two-month high this week. The yellow metal is likely to accelerate its decline, targeting the 34-day simple moving average support at $3,324.50 and then the psychological market barrier of $3,300. If the aforementioned support is breached by the bears, the price will target the $3,279.10 {60-day simple moving average} level. On the other hand, the 9-day simple moving average horizontal area at $3,375.60 may now act as an immediate barrier before the $3,400 mark. A sustained break above the latter could push the price of gold to the $3452.80 area or the near two-month high touched on Monday. Subsequent buying would then allow bulls to challenge the $3,500.10 barrier at the all-time high.

Consider going long on gold near $3,368 today, stop loss: 3,362, target: 3,400, 3,410

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar remained under pressure last week, falling below the key $0.6500 level against the US dollar, as tensions escalated in the Middle East and pressure for possible US involvement in the region. AUD/USD hit a weekly low of $0.6448 before the end of last week. Global markets are now preparing for a US decision that could come in two weeks, with President Trump weighing the possibility of a direct strike on Iran. However, the Chinese yuan found some support after the People's Bank of China did not change its benchmark lending rate, helping to boost sentiment on regional demand. Domestically, the recent Australian jobs report had little impact on expectations, with a July rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia still priced in at a 75% probability. Westpac expects the next move to be in August, citing the central bank's preference for caution and the need to assess inflation and global conditions in the second quarter. Investors will now turn their attention to the upcoming PMI data for a clearer picture of the momentum of the Australian economy.

Technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the bullish bias weakened as the pair fell below the lower line of the upward channel at 0.6490, reaching a weekly low of 0.6448. Currently, the pair is trading below the 9-day simple moving average of 0.6497 and the 0.6500 {market psychological level}, indicating that short-term price momentum is weakening. However, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is still slightly below 50, but the bullish bias remains. On the downside, AUD/USD may further test the 50-day simple moving average of 0.6410 and the 0.6400 {round number} area. A break below this level may weaken the medium-term price momentum and exert downward pressure on the pair, causing it to hover around the 0.6359 {100-day simple moving average} and 0.6356 {May 12 low} area. On the other hand, if AUD/USD can stay above the key resistance of 0.6500, the next level is the high of 0.6546 on June 11. Further gains may prompt the pair to explore the 0.6600 {round mark} level.

Consider shorting the Australian dollar around 0.6460 today, stop loss: 0.6475, target: 0.6420, 0.6410

GBP/USD

The British pound gave up some gains against major currencies amid worse-than-expected economic data. However, the pound remained higher against most currencies. Weak UK retail sales data usually prompts traders to increase bets on further interest rate cuts from the Bank of England. Traders expect two rate cuts in the rest of the year. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey maintained his "gradual and cautious" monetary easing guidance, saying that interest rates remain on a "gradual downward path." He warned that easing labor market conditions and rising energy prices due to rising tensions in the Middle East are the main risks to the economy. Looking ahead, the next trigger for GBP will be the preliminary UK S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for June, which is expected to be released early this week.

The bullish bias persists as technical analysis on the daily chart shows that the pair is still trading at the 50-day simple moving average of 1.3398. Moreover, the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is above 50, indicating that the bullish bias is strengthening. However, GBP/USD remains below the 9-day simple moving average of 1.3516, suggesting that short-term price momentum remains weak. On the upside, immediate resistance emerges at the 9-day simple moving average of 1.3516. A break above this level would strengthen short-term price momentum and support GBP/USD to test the resistance of 1.3632, which is the highest point since February 2022, marked on June 13. A break above this level could push the pair towards the 1.3700 round number level. On the other hand, GBP/USD may find initial support at 1.3450 {Friday's low}, followed by 1.3400 {round number}, and 1.3398 {50-day simple moving average} areas. A successful break below this key support area will weaken medium-term price momentum and exert downward pressure on the currency pair, causing it to hover around 1.3350 {55-day simple moving average}.

Consider shorting GBP around 1.3465 today, stop loss: 1.3480, target: 1.3405, 1.3400

USD/JPY

USD/JPY spent most of last week trading above 145.00 after Japan's core inflation accelerated to 3.7% for the third consecutive month, the highest level since January 2023. This reinforced market expectations that the Bank of Japan may continue to tighten monetary policy to address persistent inflationary pressures. Earlier last week, the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, but noted that businesses continued to pass on wage increases to prices, keeping core inflation high. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the bank's data-dependent approach, indicating an openness to further rate hikes if inflation persists. Despite Friday's rebound, the yen still fell nearly 1% last week, pressured by a stronger dollar, influenced by increased demand for safe havens amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran and possible U.S. involvement in the region. Notably, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.43% on Friday, giving the dollar a slight advantage over the yen despite the dollar's general weakness elsewhere.

Observing the daily chart, USD/JPY's consecutive closes above the 145.00 psychological mark last week, as well as the breakout of the previous month's high (around the 145.45 area) to 146.22, are seen as new triggers for bulls. In addition, oscillators have just begun to gain positive momentum, suggesting that the resistance path for USD/JPY remains to the upside. Therefore, any further pullback can be viewed as a buying opportunity around the 144.50-144.45 area. This in turn should help limit losses around the 144.08{50-day simple moving average}. However, a clear break below the latter would negate the positive outlook and shift the short-term bias towards last week’s low of 143.65 and 143.30{lateral channel axis}. On the other hand, the 145.77 area, the monthly high hit last Thursday, could act as an immediate resistance ahead of the 146.00 mark. This is followed by the May 29 high, around the 146.25-146.30 area, a breakout of which could see USD/JPY challenge the 100-day simple moving average currently at 146.86. Some follow-up buying could pave the way for a move towards the 147.67{May 14 high}, and the 148.00 round number resistance levels.

Today, you can consider shorting the US dollar around 146.30, stop loss: 146.50, target: 145.20, 145.00

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair has recovered above the 1.1500 level after a pullback from 1.1632 to 1.1446 levels at the beginning of last week and is currently trading around 1.1530. U.S. President Donald Trump said he would need two weeks to decide whether to intervene in the Middle East conflict, which eased investor concerns about an imminent attack and provided some support to the euro. However, the pair is still heading for a modest weekly loss as investors are concerned that the war between Iran and Israel could evolve into a wider regional conflict, which has kept risk appetite subdued, driving demand for the dollar and other traditional safe-haven assets. In addition, the sharp rise in oil prices poses another challenge to the weak eurozone economy, while trade relations with the United States remain highly uncertain. Negotiations between the United States and European authorities remain at a standstill two weeks before Trump's July 9 deadline. Earlier this week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and maintained its forecast for two rate cuts in 2025, but Chairman Powell sent a hawkish signal, downplaying the bitmap and warning of higher inflationary pressures from Trump's tariffs. Powell's press release turned the decision into a "hawkish hold", which further supported the dollar.

EUR/USD has been trading within an upward channel since reaching a peak of 1.1632 on June 12. The pair has continued to decline slightly over the past three days. From the technical indicators on the daily chart, the 14-jo Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is slightly around 59.50, reflecting the hesitation of sellers. The bearish correction from last week's high is still ongoing. Therefore, the upward attempt is limited to the area around 1.1580 {the central axis of the upward channel on the daily chart},, and the high of 1.1583 on June 17. The currency pair should confirm above this level to break the immediate bearish structure and shift the focus back to the said 1.1632 high. A breakout points to the 1.1690 {September 20, 2021 high} level. On the downside, the immediate support is 1.1470 {lower line of the daily upward channel}, and 1.1474 {14-day simple moving average} area. A bearish reaction below this level will increase pressure on the 1.1400 round mark and the 1.1361 level of the 50-day simple moving average.

Today, consider going long on the euro around 1.1530, stop loss: 1.1540, target: 1.1480, 1.1470

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