US Dollar Index

The US dollar index extended its decline to below 97.00 on Thursday, hitting its lowest level since 2022, as the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates earlier than previously expected. President Trump is considering announcing the next Fed chairman as early as September or October, effectively arranging a "shadow" chairman, which may affect market sentiment and potentially guide policy in a more dovish direction. Trump has repeatedly criticized Chairman Powell for maintaining the current interest rate level and not cutting it further. Market pricing now reflects 62 basis points of easing by the end of the year, slightly higher than 61 basis points the previous day. At the same time, Chairman Powell reiterated in his testimony to Congress that interest rates should remain stable for now. He warned that tariffs could pose an upside risk to inflation, citing the need for caution, but acknowledged that the Fed may continue to ease without these inflationary pressures.

From the technical chart, the US dollar index is in a clear downward trend, continuing to decline from the high of 110.18 at the beginning of the year. It is currently running between the middle axis and the lower track of the Bollinger Channel, in a volatile bearish pattern. The MACD indicator of technical indicators runs below the 0 axis, the fast and slow lines are glued together, and the narrowing of the bar chart shows that the short-term momentum has been temporarily suspended but has not been reversed; the RSI indicator is at 31.99, which is in a weak range, with no obvious deviation, indicating that the weak pattern continues. The current price is close to the lower track of the Bollinger Channel at 97.75. If it falls below the next psychological level of 97.00, which has not been tested since February 2022, the next level is 96.55 {February 22, 2022 low}, and 96.00 [integer level}. In terms of resistance, short-term attention is paid to 97.72 {Thursday high} and 98.00 {integer}.

Consider shorting the dollar index near 97.45 today, stop loss: 97.60, target: 97.00, 96.90

WTI spot crude oil

U.S. crude oil traded around $64.70 a barrel on Thursday. Oil prices rose nearly 1% on Wednesday, recovering from a sharp decline at the beginning of the week as data showed relatively strong U.S. demand and investors assessed the stability of the ceasefire between Iran and Israel. U.S. crude oil prices closed at their lowest since June 5 after U.S. President Trump announced a ceasefire on Tuesday, as supply risks in the Middle East decreased. Oil prices rebounded after Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran's important military and nuclear facilities on June 13. Oil prices hit a five-month high after the U.S. attacked Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend. Although concerns about Middle East supply have temporarily decreased, such concerns have not completely disappeared, and the demand for immediate supply remains strong. Government data on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories fell last week, providing support for oil prices. The market is betting that the Federal Reserve could cut U.S. interest rates as early as September, which would typically stimulate economic growth and oil demand.

From the daily chart, WTI crude oil is currently hovering around the 89-day simple moving average (key technical level) of $64.75. Traders are closely watching the short-term trend as two potential consolidation ranges emerge: one between $70.00 {market psychological level} and $68.32 {200-day simple moving average}, and the other between $63.72 {Tuesday's low} and $60.00 {market psychological level}. The next move of the market will largely depend on the upcoming inventory data and overall demand signals. Therefore, additional support this week comes from the $64.00 round number level, and resistance is at the long-term pivot point of $67.44.

Consider going long on WTI crude oil near 64.58 today, stop loss: 64.40, target: 66.00, 66.30

Spot gold

Spot gold traded near $3,330/oz on Thursday, as market participants remained cautious ahead of key U.S. economic data, while the ceasefire between Iran and Israel affected safe-haven demand to recover from a sharp decline at the beginning of the week, as data showed relatively strong U.S. demand and investors assessed the stability of the ceasefire between Iran and Israel. The recent recovery in market risk appetite has become a key factor suppressing gold prices. After Israel and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement, investors' concerns about geopolitical conflicts have eased significantly, and the attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets such as gold has declined. The U.S. President confirmed the ceasefire agreement on social media and called on both sides to maintain the status quo, further reducing market uncertainty. At the same time, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed a hawkish stance at a congressional hearing, dispelling market expectations of a rate cut in July. It is still maintaining a wait-and-see attitude. This stance has relatively increased the holding cost of non-interest-bearing asset gold, limiting short-term upside.

From the daily chart structure, the gold price is still in the "ascending triangle" pattern, with the upper resistance at $3,500 (April 22 high), and the lower support provided by the trend line formed by the April 7 low of $2,957. The current price is running below the 20-day simple moving average of $3,356, and the short-term trend is weak, but it has not yet formed a break. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator of the daily chart is near 49.70, suggesting that the market lacks a clear direction. At present, the 20-day simple moving average of $3,356 has become the recent long-short watershed. If it breaks through this level, it may test $3,367 {10-day simple moving average}, and if it breaks, it will test the recent highs of $3.397 {Monday high} and $3,400 {integer mark}. Support below: Watch for confirmation below the psychological $3,300 level before making fresh bets and prepare for a decline towards the $3,271.70 {May 30 low}, and $3,245 {May 29 low} area.

Consider going long on gold near $3,324 today, Stop Loss: 3,320, Target: 3,355, 3,360

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar appreciated to around $0.6550 on Thursday, marking its fourth straight session of gains to a one-week high, supported by improved risk sentiment from the US-brokered Israel-Iran ceasefire. The ceasefire appears to be holding steady, with traders keeping a close eye on the upcoming US-Iran talks and broader Middle East tensions. President Trump confirmed a meeting next week but questioned the need for diplomacy, pointing to the damage caused by the recent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Investors were also weighing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statement on Wednesday, suggesting the central bank was in no rush to cut rates. Domestically, the Australian dollar remains under pressure due to weak inflation data and lower-than-expected GDP, reinforcing market expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in July. The market is also pricing in 73 basis points of rate cuts for the full year.

AUD/USD traded around 0.6550 on Thursday. Technical analysis shows that the pair maintains a sustained bullish bias within an ascending channel pattern. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator on the daily chart is above 55. In addition, the pair remains above the 34-day simple moving average of 0.6470, indicating strong short-term price momentum. On the upside, AUD/USD may target 0.6598, the high since November last year, and 0.6600{round mark}. Further pointing to 0.6681{November 8, 2024 high} level. Immediate support appears at 0.6500{market psychological mark}, and a break below it will see the 34-day simple moving average of 0.6470. A break below this level would weaken short-term price momentum and exert downward pressure on the pair to test the 0.6400 mark.

Consider going long on AUD around 0.6530 today, Stop Loss: 0.6520, Target: 0.6580, 0.6590

GBP/USD

The British pound extended its gains against the US dollar on Thursday, hitting a more than three-year high of around 1.3765 for the fourth consecutive session. As US President Trump reiterated his attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve, the GBP/USD pair strengthened as the US dollar faced intense selling pressure after Powell pledged a "wait-and-see" interest rate policy during two days of semi-annual congressional testimony. The risk-sensitive GBP/USD pair found support as risk appetite improved driven by the fragile US-brokered Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement. In addition, traders evaluated cautious comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell noted on Wednesday that Trump's tariff policy could lead to a one-off price increase, but it could also lead to more persistent inflation. The Fed should be cautious when considering further rate cuts.

GBP/USD extended its gains on Thursday, hitting its highest level since January 2022, breaking the 1.3700 round number for the first time to a new high of 1.3765. The pair is on track to close in positive territory for the fifth consecutive month as the dollar broadly weakens. The daily chart shows that buying on GBP/USD may be too aggressive as the price quickly surpassed the ascending trendline and traded well above the 20-day simple moving average near 1.3544. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator is in the positive territory of 66.90, temporarily away from the overbought zone, indicating strong short-term upward momentum. GBP/USD's upside resistance is at the 1.3800 mark. A break above the latter would expose it to 1.3850. Conversely, if the pair breaks below 1.3656 {Thursday low}, sellers may test the 1.3600 round-figure mark.

Consider going long GBP around 1.3715 today, stop loss: 1.3705, target: 1.3760 , 1.3770

USD/JPY

The yen regained positive momentum in the face of an overall weaker dollar, pushing USD/JPY back below the 145.00 psychological mark during Thursday's Asian trading session. Although the Bank of Japan has been cautious about raising interest rates, it is still expected to continue moving towards normalization of monetary policy as inflation continues to exceed its target. In contrast, the Fed's latest forecasts and bitmap show two rate cuts before the end of the year, which is a significant divergence from the hawkish expectations of the Bank of Japan. This is seen as a key factor in favor of the low-yielding yen. Meanwhile, the latest threat by US President Trump that he is considering replacing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has raised concerns about the central bank's independence. And it has curbed investors' appetite for risky assets, further consolidating the yen's safe-haven status. Moreover, the Trump-Powell confrontation dragged the dollar to its lowest level since March 2022 and intensified selling pressure on USD/JPY.

Overnight resistance ahead of the 146.00 mark and the subsequent break below the 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour chart, currently in the 144.30-144.40 area, will be seen as a key trigger for USD/JPY shorts. Considering that the oscillators on the hourly/daily charts have just started to gain downside momentum, the spot price may accelerate its decline towards the 144.00 round mark, followed by the 143.70-143.65 area, and finally test the level below 143.00. On the other hand, any attempt to recover above the 145.00 psychological mark is more likely to attract new sellers around the 145.25-145.35 static resistance and remain capped around the 146.00 mark. The latter should serve as a pivot point that, if breached, could shift the short-term bias to bulls and push USD/JPY to the 147.00 round mark.

Consider shorting the dollar around 144.60 today, stop loss: 144.80, target: 143.60, 143.40

EUR/USD

EUR/USD continued to rise during Thursday's trading session to 1.1745, the highest level since October 2021. The dollar weakened against the euro as investors worried about the future independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he is considering three to four possible replacements for the Fed chairman. This raised questions about the possible erosion of the Fed's independence and possible weakening of its credibility, which weakened the dollar and created a tailwind for the major currency pair. Earlier this week, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that further rate cuts are still possible despite current conditions. Dovish comments from ECB policymakers could weigh on the euro in the short term.

The daily chart shows that EUR/USD continued to rise during Thursday's trading session to the highest level since October 2021, the 1.1745 mark. EUR/USD remains bullish, refreshing to 1.1745 after breaking through the previous year's high of 1.1641, and further gains are expected in the short term. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of technical indicators shows that buyers are gaining momentum. That is, the next resistance level for EUR/USD is 1.1750-1.1745. Once broken, the next areas of focus will be 1.1800 {market psychological level}, and 1.1810 {September 11, 2021 high}. On the other hand, a daily close below 1.1618 {5-day simple moving average} and the 1.1600 mark may pave the way for a test of 1.1539 {14-day simple moving average}.

Today, you can consider going long on Euro around 1.1685, stop loss: 1.1675, target: 1.1740, 1.1750

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