US Dollar Index

The US dollar index was steady around 97.55 on Wednesday as traders weighed the latest FOMC minutes and developments on the trade outlook. The minutes of the Fed's June meeting showed that most officials still expect to cut interest rates this year, although opinions remain divided, with some seeing a cut as soon as July and others seeing no need for a reduction. Officials also disagreed on the impact of tariffs on inflation. The market continues to price in two quarter-point rate cuts in 2025, with September seen as the most likely time for the first move. On the trade front, President Trump announced new tariff letters to the Philippines, Brunei, Moldova, Algeria, Iraq, Libya and Sri Lanka, imposing tariffs of 25% to 30% from August 1. He also said a similar letter would be issued regarding Brazil. On Tuesday, Trump announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports and hinted at further industry-specific measures. In a more aggressive move, he threatened to impose tariffs of up to 200% on pharmaceutical imports.

The US dollar index showed signs of recovery after a brief drop last week. After the breakout, the index found support around 96.38 {last week’s paper point} and has been climbing steadily higher. It is currently trading around 97.60, above the 9-day simple moving average of 97.14. The breakout could be a bear trap, and if momentum continues to gain momentum, the price action now suggests a potential consolidation or bullish reversal. Momentum indicators are starting to show signs of stabilization. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) has risen to 45.76, still below the key 50 level but pointing upwards, while the MACD histogram has just turned slightly positive. Bulls are likely to take control. Immediate support is at 97.14 {9-day simple moving average}, followed by Monday’s low of 96.89. On the upside, a daily close above the 25-day simple moving average of 97.99, and the support-turned-resistance of 98.00 {round number} will be needed to pave the way for a challenge to 99.00.

Consider shorting the dollar index around 97.70 today, stop loss: 97.85, target: 97.10, 97.00

WTI spot crude oil

WTI crude oil traded at around $67.20 a barrel on Wednesday, paring gains from the previous session as investors weighed the potential impact of rising U.S. crude inventories and trade tensions. Oil prices rose to a two-week high of $68.00 on Tuesday on lower U.S. oil production forecasts, renewed Houthi attacks on Red Sea merchant ships, concerns about U.S. copper tariffs and technical short covering. On the other hand, President Trump ruled out any extension of the August 1 tariff deadline, heightening concerns about global trade and its impact on energy demand. Meanwhile, API data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose by 7.1 million barrels last week, the second consecutive week of increases, while the market expected a decrease of 2.8 million barrels. The Houthi rebels' renewed attacks on Red Sea shipping have raised concerns about supply disruptions, providing some support for prices.

From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil is currently running between the 20-day {67.99} and 50-day {64.07} moving averages, and the short-term trend shows a volatile and strong structure. The price has built a short-term support area near $65.76 {34-day moving average}, and the bulls maintain their control above $68. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicators of the daily chart is mildly upward, and the MACD shows a weak golden cross pattern, indicating that the short-term still has upward potential. If it can effectively break through Tuesday's high of 67.98; 20-day moving average of 67.99; and $68.00, it is expected to challenge $70.00 {market psychological barrier}, and further point to the resistance area of ​​$71.20 {June 18 low}. On the contrary, if it falls below the integer barrier of 66.00, it will face further pullback pressure to $65.76 {34-day moving average}.

Consider going long on WTI crude oil near 67.10 today, stop loss: 66.95 target: 68.30, 68.50

Spot gold

Gold rebounded above $3,300 an ounce on Wednesday, recovering from earlier losses, following the release of the latest FOMC minutes. Fed officials were split on when and how much to cut interest rates at their June meeting. While most believe some rate cuts are likely this year, opinions ranged from calls for a July cut to no rate cuts at all in 2025. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%–4.5%, maintaining a cautious, data-driven stance in the face of mixed economic signals—tariff-driven inflation concerns, slowing consumer spending, and a strong labor market. Chairman Powell reaffirmed the Fed's independence despite continued political pressure from President Trump. Meanwhile, Trump ruled out further delays to the August 1 tariff deadline and unveiled sweeping new measures including a 50% tariff on copper, a possible 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, and a 10% tariff on BRICS imports. The expected inflationary impact of these tariffs could limit the Fed's flexibility to ease policy further.

From the recent trend, gold's uptrend continues, but buyers appear to be losing momentum. It is worth noting that the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator on the daily chart, triggered a "sell signal" as the index fell below 50 {latest at around 47}, indicating that sellers outnumbered buyers. From a price action perspective, gold prices need to break through the June 30 low of $3,246 to pave the way for further downside to $3,200 {round mark}, and the 100-day simple moving average at around $3,198, followed by the May 16 low of $3,155. Conversely, if gold prices revisit $3,300 {market heart market mark}, breakout will look to the 50-day simple moving average above $3,321, and is expected to test the Bollinger Band middle axis at $3,348.80.

Today, consider going long on gold around $3,310, stop loss: 3,305, target: 3,330, 3,335

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose slightly to around $0.6535, supported by the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision on Tuesday to keep interest rates at 3.85%. Most board members chose to wait for clearer evidence of slowing inflation. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michelle Bullock said in a post-meeting press conference that high labor costs and low productivity drive persistent inflation risks that could push inflation above current forecasts. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Hauser added that the central bank is closely monitoring the development of U.S. tariff measures, citing high global uncertainty. In the latest trade developments, Trump ruled out further extension of tariffs set on August 1 and announced wide-ranging new penalties, including a 50% tariff on copper imports, a potential 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, and a 10% tax on BRICS goods. In addition, mixed inflation data from China, Australia's largest trading partner, also limited the AUD's sharp moves.

AUD/USD is currently trading near 0.6552 {9-day simple moving average}, and 0.6558 {Tuesday's low} below, providing resistance. As well as the failure to break above the 0.6600 psychological barrier, raising expectations of a bearish reversal last week, positive momentum is nonetheless supported by the 50 and 200-day simple moving averages. When the 50-day crossed above the 200-day SMA, a bullish golden cross pattern was formed, indicating that a larger uptrend is likely. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 53 suggests neutral momentum with a slight uptrend. If it can sustain above 0.6552 - 0.6558 and stay above, it will test the 0.6600 level. On the other hand, if the price falls below the round number support around 0.6500, it will mark a major change in the market structure, which may lead to further declines to hover around 0.6472 {55-day simple moving average}, followed by the 0.6400 round number, and the 89-day simple moving average of 0.6398.

Today, consider going long on the Australian dollar around 0.6522, stop loss: 0.6510, target: 0.6565, 0.6575

GBP/USD

GBP/USD continues its downward trend and trades around 1.3590 during the Wednesday session. As the US dollar strengthens, GBP/USD depreciates and risk aversion intensifies. Pressured by the strengthening US dollar and concerns about the UK's fiscal outlook. US President Trump warned 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, of the 25% tariff that will take effect from August 1. US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said the US has already received around $100 billion in tariff revenue this year, and that the total is expected to surge to $300 billion by the end of 2025, largely due to President Trump's escalating trade measures. GBP/USD faces challenges as the pound depreciates on concerns about the UK's fiscal outlook. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has warned that the UK's public finances are on an unsustainable long-term trajectory given the growth in state pension costs and the growing climate emergency.

GBP/USD continues to fluctuate on the lower end of a short-term correction after retreating from multi-year highs near 1.3800 in early July. Price action has tilted to the downside since then; however, GBP/USD is still trading above its 50-day simple moving average near 1.3485. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator on the daily chart, has retreated from overbought conditions to around 51, but short-term downward momentum may still have room to develop further. Therefore, the possibility of a correction to 1.3500 {round mark} and below is increasing. In this case, the key support will be the 50-day simple moving average at 1.3485. This is followed by the 1.3440 {June 20 low} level.

Today, consider going long GBP around 1.3575, Stop Loss: 1.3560, Target: 1.3620 , 1.3630

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen remained unchanged against the US dollar during Wednesday’s North American session, posting an impressive rebound after overnight losses, which mainly reflected the volatility in the US Treasury market. The yen fell below 147 against the US dollar, marking its third consecutive day of decline as US-Japan trade negotiations showed signs of tension, especially in terms of protecting the Japanese rice market. The decline came after US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on Japanese goods, which will take effect on August 1. Trump stressed that the newly implemented tariffs will not be revised or delayed, targeting a total of 14 countries. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba called the latest measures "regrettable" but confirmed that Japan is committed to continuing negotiations with Washington to find a mutually beneficial solution. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan board member Junko Koeda noted that the central bank is keeping a close eye on possible second-round effects on core inflation, especially from rising food prices (including rice).

USD/JPY broke above the 100-day simple moving average of 145.88 for the first time on the overnight close, which could be seen as a new trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, the oscillators on the daily chart are gaining positive momentum and are still far from entering overbought territory. The technical pattern supports further short-term appreciation, targeting the intermediate resistance of 147.60-147.65, and then the round number of 148.00 or the monthly high in June, and a break of 148.65 {May 12 high}. On the other hand, the Asian session lows were around 146.50 area, which seems to be curbing the short-term downside risks for now. Any further corrective declines could be seen as buying opportunities and maintain solid support levels around the round number of 146.00, the 89-day simple moving average of 145.46, and 145.00.

Consider shorting USD near 146.55 today, Stop Loss: 146.78, Target: 145.50, 145.40

EUR/USD

During Wednesday's trading session, EUR/USD fell to near 1.1720. EUR/USD weakened as markets were unnerved by renewed tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump expanded his global trade war by threatening to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports and hinted at possible tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Trump noted on Tuesday that trade talks with the European Union (EU) and China were going well, although he added that he was only a few days away from sending a tariff letter to the EU. Uncertainty over tariffs and fears of a trade war could weaken risk assets like the euro in the short term. The Federal Reserve left its key lending rate unchanged last month, with the federal funds rate remaining in a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, where it has been since December.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is in a neutral position with clear support and resistance levels. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), while bullish, has turned flat, indicating that neither buyers nor sellers are in control. For bullish continuation, EUR/USD must break above the July 7 high of 1.1789 for buyers to target 1.1800. The key resistance is at the year-to-date high of 1.1832. Conversely, if EUR/USD falls below 1.1700, it will expose the 20-day simple moving average as the first support level, which is located at 1.1651. A break above the latter will expose the 1.1600 level.

Today, consider going long on EUR near 1.1710, stop loss: 1.1700 target: 1.1750, 1.1770

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