US Dollar Index

The dollar rose against major currencies earlier this week after Trump sent a new round of tariff letters to countries including Algeria, Iraq, Libya, Sri Lanka and the Philippines. Tariffs of up to 30% will take effect on August 1, but he said he was willing to postpone the date if countries come up with proposals. Trump said on social media that tariff letters would be sent to other countries later on Wednesday afternoon, but did not provide any details. Despite the recent gains, the dollar index is still down more than 6% since Trump announced his comprehensive "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which triggered a market sell-off, but most of these tariffs were later postponed to allow time to negotiate a bilateral trade deal. It has been a lot of turbulent moves to hold the dollar. Uncertainty remains.

The dollar index has risen about 1.5% since hitting a multi-year low of 96.38 on July 1 - the lowest level in three years, extending its rebound. The index briefly broke below a descending wedge pattern but then moved back into the formation, suggesting a possible bear trap and sending a bullish signal. However, the index now faces a critical hurdle around the 97.80–98.00 support zone, which has turned into resistance. This zone is further reinforced by the 25-day SMA at 98.26, adding technical weight to the current stagnation point. The 14-day RSI is rising and currently stands at 41.90, although it remains below the neutral 50 level. A daily close above 97.80 – 98.00 will confirm a breakout of the immediate resistance and could pave the way for a move towards the next targets of 98.26 {25-day SMA}, and 98.40 (June 24 high). Conversely, a rejection here would maintain the broader downtrend and shift the focus back to the 97.13 {9-day SMA}–97.00 {round number forward} support zone. The next level points to the 96.38 level of the early July low.

Consider shorting the dollar index around 97.70 today, stop loss: 97.85, target: 97.20, 97.10

WTI spot crude oil

WTI crude oil fell 2% on Thursday, falling below $65.90 a barrel as traders have priced in news that OPEC+ may suspend planned production increases starting in October. Although discussions are still in the early stages, the move indicates concerns that the market may be oversupplied after the peak demand in mid-summer. Investors are also weighing the broader impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies, including newly confirmed 50% tariffs on copper imports and Brazilian goods, which will take effect on August 1. These tariffs have roiled global markets, raising concerns about slowing economic growth and weak oil demand. At the same time, geopolitical risks have escalated, with Houthi rebels resuming attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes, sinking two ships and killing crew members, adding a temporary risk premium to oil prices.

From the daily chart, oil prices are in a long-term downward channel. However, oil prices have recovered from the low of 55.14 in May and are currently trading above the short-term rising trend line. Prices are testing the resistance of the 200-day simple moving average at 68.13. The 14-day relative strength index RSI of the technical indicator has re-crossed above the 50.00 midline. Supported by momentum, buyers will seek to extend gains to $70 {market psychological barrier}, and further point to the resistance area of ​​$71.20 {June 18 low}. If the 200-day simple moving average cannot be broken, sellers may try to test $65.25 {40-day moving average}. And will face further pullback pressure to the support level of 65, which is both the support level of the rising trend line and the midpoint of the downward channel.

Today, you can consider going long on WTI crude oil near 65.75, stop loss: 65.58 target: 67.30, 67.50

Spot gold

Gold spot gold traded around $3,324/ounce on Thursday. Gold prices rose slightly on Wednesday. Investors closely followed the negotiations between the United States and its trading partners. Trump sent another letter to seven countries to increase tariffs, while the strengthening of the US dollar suppressed further increases in gold prices. Investors are increasingly turning to gold amid market volatility, fiscal concerns and the widening of the US deficit. The trend of gold prices in the middle of the week can be described as twists and turns. Against the backdrop of market volatility, fiscal concerns and the widening of the US deficit, investors' safe-haven demand for gold has increased significantly. The global economy is facing multiple uncertainties, including geopolitical risks and unclear trade policies, which have prompted funds to flow to gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, providing support for gold prices to buy on dips.

The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator of the daily chart, is in the negative zone {47.50}, showing a weak performance, which supports further downward movement of gold prices. If the psychological support of $3,300 is lost, gold may further test the key support of $3,247 (higher low on June 30, and $3,238 (89-day simple moving average). On the contrary, if gold fails to break below $3,300 {market psychological barrier} again, the short-term downside risk will be alleviated. However, it needs to recapture $3343.80 {20-day simple moving average} to curb short-term short-term short forces and shift the market focus to 3,397.30 {June 23 high}.

Today, consider going long on gold around 3,320, stop loss: 3,315, target: 3,345, 3,348

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar rose above $0.6590 on Thursday, marking its third straight session of gains, as a surge in copper prices - driven by Trump's newly announced tariffs - boosted demand for commodity-related currencies. The 50% tariff on all U.S. copper imports that came into effect on August 1 sent copper prices sharply higher. Australia, one of the world's top copper exporters, stands to benefit, with higher prices supporting the Aussie due to its close ties with the commodity. Gains in iron ore and gold also provided support for resource-sensitive currencies. On the policy front, the Reserve Bank of Australia's unexpected decision to keep interest rates unchanged earlier this week continued to provide support. Governor Michel Bullock noted that the dollar is expected to remain strong as unit labor costs remain high.

The AUD/USD pair is currently trading around 0.6590, with resistance firmly established at 0.6600 {market psychological barrier}. The pair is currently trading within an expanding rising wedge structure. This is a pattern characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows, which expands upwards. The pair is currently consolidating below the upper line of the rising wedge, while the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the technical indicator on the daily chart is close to 54, indicating a slightly bullish bias above the neutral zone of 50. Support is located near the 55-day simple moving average of 0.6475, If it breaks, it will test the 200-day simple moving average of 0.6402 and the 0.6400 {integer mark} area. On the upside, if it can continue to break through the 0.6600 mark. If it breaks, it will see 0.6681 {last November high} and will test the 0.6700 mark.

Today, you can consider going long on the Australian dollar around 0.6580, stop loss: 0.6570, target: 0.6630, 0.6640

GBP/USD

The pound fell below $1.36, hitting a two-week low, pressured by a stronger dollar and concerns about the UK's fiscal outlook. US President Donald Trump warned 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, of 25% tariffs that would take effect from August 1. So far, only the UK and Vietnam have reached an agreement to avoid new tariffs, which are different from existing tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum. The UK is rushing to reach a deal with the US to eliminate tariffs on British steel, fearing that tariffs could soar to 50%, threatening the already fragile domestic steel industry. At the same time, concerns about the health of the UK's finances have affected sentiment. Rising global tensions and calls for increased defense spending have also exacerbated long-term fiscal uncertainty.

From this week's technical trend analysis, GBP/USD continues to hover at the lower end of a short-term correction after retreating from a multi-year high near 1.3800 in early July. The future trend of GBP/USD remains bullish. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a technical indicator on the daily chart, has returned to neutral from an overbought state to around 52. Therefore, There may still be room for further development of short-term downward momentum, but it is expected to fall to 1.3500{round mark, and the 1.3492 area of ​​the 50-day simple moving average provides trend support and then turn bullish. At present, the currency pair is still trading above the 1.3600 mark. Therefore, the upward direction can continue to focus on the 1.3642{9-day simple moving average}, and the 1.3700{round mark} area level.

Today, you can consider going long on the pound near 1.3570, stop loss: 1.3560, target: 1.3630, 1.3640

USD/JPY

The Japanese yen struggled to capitalize on modest gains during the Asian session on Thursday, trading near the intraday lows of its US counterpart. Investors are concerned about the possible economic impact of the 25% tariffs on Japanese goods that US President Donald Trump will impose starting August 1. In addition, the Japanese Producer Price Index (PPI) released today hinted that inflationary pressures may be waning. This further confirmed market expectations that the Bank of Japan will abandon rate hikes this year, which is seen as weighing on the yen. Apart from this, the generally positive tone of Asian equities is another factor that has weakened demand for the traditional safe-haven yen. However, the continued uncertainty caused by Trump's erratic trade policies remains a dampener on market optimism. Moreover, the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday supported the view of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which put the US dollar bulls on the defensive and helped to suppress the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, a break below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level during the recent rebound from the monthly low could be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders on the USD/JPY pair. However, the subsequent decline was at 145.00{round mark}, The pair has found some support in the 145.08{9-day moving average} area, which represents a psychological level for the market. This area should now serve as a pivotal point, below which the spot price could fall further to the 144.28(65-day moving average} area. Subsequent selling could eventually drag the pair to 143.45{July 3}. On the other hand, a rebound above the 146.00 level could face resistance in the 146.25-146.30 area, followed by the 146.55 area. A sustained strong break above the latter would signal the end of the corrective pullback and allow the pair to revisit the 147.00 round number.

Consider shorting the USD around 146.50 today, stop loss: 146.72, target: 145.30, 145.20

EUR/USD

EUR/USD traded slightly lower in Thursday's session around 1.1700. The pair gained as the U.S. dollar weakened following the latest FOMC minutes and U.S. tariff developments. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump published a new round of tariff demand letters on Wednesday, including 50% on Brazil, 30% on Algeria, Libya, Iraq and Sri Lanka, and 20% on Philippine goods, which will take effect in August. EUR/USD was also supported by news from the White House that it would not impose additional tariffs on the European Union, and may receive some exceptions to the base rate of 10%.

EUR/USD is currently trading Around the psychological level of 1.1700, the new year high of 1.1803 was tested last week. The 20-day simple moving average provides support at 1.1659. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) of the daily chart is hovering above 60, indicating a weakening of bullish momentum, although the overall tone remains neutral to positive. Immediate resistance is at the 9-day simple moving average of 1.1759, which could open the door to the psychological level of 1.1800 and the recent high of 1.1830. As support is clustered around the 20-day simple moving average at 1.1659, a decisive break below this intersection could take the pair further down to the 1.1600 {market psychological level} level.

Today, consider going long on EUR near 1.1690, stop loss: 1.1678, target: 1.1750, 1.1770

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