Equity Analysis:

Australia ASX 200 Index

Market Overview:

The ASX 200 rose 24 points, or 0.3%, on Wednesday to close at 8,697, reversing the previous session's losses. Strong performances in consumer durables, energy minerals and non-energy minerals lifted market sentiment. Firmer U.S. equity-index futures also provided support ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, while traders remained focused on elevated oil prices and geopolitical tensions. Bargain buying emerged after the local market fell to a near ten-week low amid persistent inflation concerns and the prospect of another rate increase later this month. In China, Australia's largest trading partner, mixed August data renewed hopes that Beijing may introduce additional stimulus measures.

Among the heavyweights, BHP Group gained 1.3% and Rio Tinto rose 0.8%. Energy shares advanced, with Woodside Energy up 2.9%, Santos up 2.3% and Ampol up 2.6%. The major banks were mixed: National Australia Bank and Commonwealth Bank declined, while Westpac and ANZ were little changed. Investors are now awaiting Governor Bullock's testimony before Parliament on Friday for further policy guidance.

Technical Analysis:

Wednesday produced a modestly volatile candlestick. The index tested support early in the session and recovered into the close, leaving a lower wick. It remains below its medium-term moving averages, while the 5-day and 10-day moving averages are acting as near-term resistance. The pattern is consistent with weak consolidation at lower levels following the recent decline, and there is still no clear reversal signal. Current market structure: the daily trend remains soft and range-bound, with bulls and bears still competing as the market waits for direction from U.S. equities and commodity pricing. Index performance remains heavily concentrated in financials and miners. Market breadth is weak, with slightly fewer advancers than decliners, leaving a small group of heavyweight stocks to support the index. Key external drivers for Wednesday are overnight moves in U.S. equities, U.S. Treasury yields, iron ore and copper prices, and AUD/USD. The market continues to price Australian inflation and RBA rate expectations, while higher oil prices are reinforcing inflation concerns and weighing on risk assets.

Thursday Technical Outlook (short-term / intraday): Optimistic scenario - a range-bound rebound. If U.S. equities strengthen overnight, Treasury yields ease, and iron ore and copper stabilise, the index could hold the 8,737 support level after the open and test resistance at 8,820. However, without stronger volume, any rebound is likely to stall and fade. It would represent a weak technical repair rather than a direct trend reversal. Base case (most likely): the index remains range-bound between 8,737 and 8,820, with two-way trading while the market waits for U.S. data later in the day. Rallies are likely to meet selling pressure, while dips should attract some buying, keeping the session relatively tight. Bearish scenario: if Treasury yields rise and commodities weaken, a break below 8,737 could expose 8,655. A high-volume break of 8,655 would turn the short-term trend bearish again. Indicator outlook: RSI may come under renewed pressure if it rebounds toward 50. MACD is likely to remain below the zero line unless the index can break above 8,820 on stronger volume; otherwise, sustained bullish momentum will be difficult to establish.

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index

Market Overview:

The Hang Seng Index rose 0.2%, or 47 points, on Wednesday to close at 24,713, led by technology shares. Gains were limited, however, as investors remained cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision later in the day. Sentiment was pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield briefly moving above 5% in the previous session, while a stronger U.S. dollar also weighed on Asian risk assets. Technology shares provided support, and the Hang Seng TECH Index was up 0.9% around midday. Zhipu AI surged more than 8%, ending an 11-session losing streak.

MiniMax, SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor gained roughly 5%-7%, while Xiaomi (-1.5%), Kuaishou (-1.7%) and Akeso (-3.9%) declined. Elsewhere, reports indicated that Hong Kong data-centre developments could secure US$2.6 billion in financing, reflecting growing investment in the city's artificial-intelligence and digital-infrastructure sectors.

Technical Analysis:

Wednesday close: 24,713.78, up 46.54 points (+0.19%). Intraday high: 24,789.91; low: 24,574.75. Candlestick structure: a small bullish candle with a clear upper wick after an intraday rally faded. The index opened near 24,789 and immediately came under pressure, then rebounded after testing support around 24,574 before closing near 24,700. This was a weak corrective rebound rather than a reversal candle. The index remains below its 10-day, 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with the shorter-term averages in bearish alignment and the medium-term trend still pointing lower. The 10-day MA at 25,093 and 20-day MA at 25,333 form a strong overhead resistance zone that is unlikely to be reclaimed in a single move. Market characteristics: southbound flows remain net positive, but large-cap internet and technology names are mixed. Tencent and Xiaomi declined, while selected hard-tech and AI names strengthened. This sector divergence has prevented the index from generating broad-based upside momentum. Key constraint: investors are waiting for the Fed decision, turnover has not expanded materially, and the market remains in low-volume, range-bound trading dominated by existing capital. Wednesday summary: the broader bearish trend remains intact, while short-term oversold conditions are driving only a weak recovery. The 24,570 area is the key near-term defensive level for bulls; a break below it would deepen the correction. Selling pressure remains heavy near 24,790, and a breakout will be difficult without stronger volume.

Thursday (17 Sep) Technical Outlook - Scenario Analysis. Optimistic scenario (lower probability): improved overnight risk appetite could produce a higher open. A high-volume hold above 24,850 would open a test of 24,930, provided Treasury yields ease and the U.S. dollar weakens. However, with the moving averages still exerting bearish pressure, such a move would more likely be an opportunity to reduce exposure into strength than a confirmed trend reversal. Base case (highest probability): range-bound trading between 24,570 and 24,850. Following the Fed decision, position unwinding could keep the index choppy, with rallies meeting resistance and pullbacks attracting buyers at support. The overall tone would remain weak and range-bound. Bearish scenario: higher Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar could trigger a lower open. A high-volume break below major support at 24,550 would open another leg lower. Technical view: the medium-term trend remains bearish. Thursday is expected to be dominated by range trading, with priority given to selling into failed rebounds; short-term long opportunities only emerge if support holds convincingly.

FX Analysis:

U.S. Dollar Index

The U.S. Dollar Index moved above 100 for the first time in nearly seven weeks on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points. The FOMC decision was unanimous and had been widely anticipated, as recent data showed elevated underlying inflation, low unemployment and a sharp rebound in retail sales, highlighting continued consumer resilience despite accelerating price growth. Policymakers' projections indicated that at least one more rate hike this year would be appropriate, while the unemployment forecast was revised lower and the growth forecast higher. The decision supported the dollar. Earlier comments from Chair Warsh had raised questions about the Fed's willingness to fight inflation through higher policy rates rather than other tools, reigniting demand for precious metals and other safe-haven currencies. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to leave rates unchanged tomorrow, while the Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates.

On the daily chart, the Dollar Index appears to have formed a double bottom near 98.50 and has moved back above the 200-day simple moving average at 99.14. The current rebound, however, is approaching a dense resistance zone between 100.46 (31 July high) and the psychological 101.00 level. Momentum indicators show renewed buying pressure, but a breakout has not yet been confirmed. RSI is close to 63, while a rising MACD histogram suggests bullish momentum is rebuilding, although price is still capped by nearby moving-average resistance. A sustained break above 100 would confirm stronger bullish momentum and expose the next resistance levels at 100.46 and 101.00. Conversely, an unexpected decision to hold rates unchanged or provide cautious guidance could trigger a pullback below the psychological 100.00 level, bringing the 200-day SMA at 99.23 back into focus.

Today, consider shorting the U.S. Dollar Index at 100.42; stop-loss: 100.55; targets: 100.00 and 99.90.

AUD/USD

AUD/USD is trading near 0.7090, down from the four-month high near 0.7237 reached earlier this month. The U.S. dollar, as tracked by the Dollar Index, remains just below the 100.00 level and is firmer on the day as traders adjust positions ahead of a major event: Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. Since December 2025, the Fed has kept its target range at 3.50%-3.75%, leaving rates unchanged at the previous five meetings. Following Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech warning that inflation had not improved materially, and a strong August employment report, markets are now leaning toward a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75%-4.00%. Earlier in the day, the four-week average of ADP employment change rose to 16.25K from 12.25K, suggesting the U.S. labour market is stabilising rather than cooling.

On the four-hour chart, AUD/USD is quoted around 0.7100 and retains a near-term bearish bias because it remains below the 20-period SMA at 0.7144 and the 100-period SMA at 0.7176. The pair is stabilising just above horizontal support at the 0.7100 round-number level, while RSI is hovering near 41, suggesting downside momentum is stretched but has not yet produced a clear reversal signal. On the upside, initial resistance sits at the 100-period SMA at 0.7176, followed by 0.7200 and the four-month high at 0.7237. On the downside, the first key support is the 0.7100 round-number level. A sustained break below this floor would expose further near-term weakness toward the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7049, with the psychological 0.7000 level potentially providing the next meaningful support.

Today, consider buying AUD/USD at 0.7076; stop-loss: 0.7065; targets: 0.7130 and 0.7120.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD fell below 1.3400 in mid-U.S. afternoon trade, reaching 1.3372, its lowest level since early August, after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points as widely expected. The U.S. dollar held its gains in early Asian trading on Thursday after Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish press conference. The Bank of England is expected to leave rates unchanged on Thursday. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has pushed back against expectations for another rate increase, but surging energy prices have clouded the inflation outlook, with oil rising above US$100 a barrel as conflict in the Middle East intensified again. Data released earlier this month showed that the U.K. economy grew in July at its fastest pace in 18 months, supported by AI-related activity and continued momentum from a strong first half. Goldman Sachs expects the Bank of England to keep Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, followed by a 25-basis-point increase in November as inflation remains persistent and growth stays steady. Markets, meanwhile, are pricing four BoE rate hikes by mid-2027.

On the daily chart, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3372. The short-term bias is neutral to slightly bearish after spot price slipped below a cluster of simple moving averages around 1.3400. The 14-period RSI has fallen to a low reading near 32, indicating weakening bullish momentum, while the breakout levels from the previous downtrend and the current uptrend are now containing price within a narrow range. On the upside, initial resistance is near the 1.3400 round-number level, with further resistance around the previous 5-day SMA at 1.3477. On the downside, immediate support is at 1.3333 (30 July low), followed by the previous downtrend breakout area near the 1.3300 round-number level. If the pair pulls back further, buying interest is expected to re-emerge around these levels.

Today, consider buying GBP/USD at 1.3360; stop-loss: 1.3350; targets: 1.3400 and 1.3420.

USD/JPY

The Bank of Japan meets on Friday, and the market has fully priced a 25-basis-point rate hike to 1.25%. The yen has nevertheless continued to weaken. USD/JPY has risen for three consecutive sessions, with Wednesday posting the largest gain of the three. After the Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4.00%, the pair traded just below 156.50. This means it has recovered roughly half of the decline from the early-September level near 160.00 to the month's low near 153.00. Traders will focus on Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments on the future pace of rate hikes and how high the BoJ may be prepared to take rates during the current tightening cycle. Even if the BoJ hikes this time, it may be difficult for the central bank to sound more hawkish than the market already expects. It was also noted that USD/JPY could fall back toward 157.

On the daily chart, USD/JPY remains under clear downward pressure, with the pair trading below the Bollinger Band midline at 157.03 and the 200-day SMA at 158.41. Although it has recently rebounded from the lower band, the overall bias remains bearish. RSI is near 45, showing weak momentum and suggesting that any corrective upside could encounter selling interest at nearby resistance levels.

On the upside, initial resistance sits at the Bollinger Band midline near 157.07, with stronger resistance close to the 200-day SMA at 158.41, followed by the psychological 160.00 level. On the downside, attention is focused on 154.21 (Tuesday's low). A clear break below that area would expose further weakness toward 153.37 (this week's low).

Today, consider shorting USD/JPY at 156.50; stop-loss: 156.70; targets: 155.40 and 155.50.

EUR/USD

The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September, and the euro has declined in every session since. The Federal Reserve also raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday, producing the largest daily decline in the current EUR/USD downswing. The pair is now trading above 1.1450 but remains below both of its longer-term moving averages, as it has since early August, and below the level seen before the mid-August jump that started the previous rally. Crude oil surged on Tuesday to its highest level since 20 May amid growing concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East. In addition, a surge in public and corporate borrowing pushed the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to its highest level since April 2007, supporting the dollar and pressuring EUR/USD. Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions have also favoured the safe-haven dollar, although the ECB's hawkish outlook has provided some support for the euro and limited the pair's decline.

EUR/USD remains below the 100-day SMA at 1.1553 and the 20-day SMA at 1.1613, maintaining a bearish bias. Sellers may, however, need a clear break below the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the latest move, around 1.1533, to extend the decline toward the 78.6% retracement near 1.1430. Deeper support is seen at the 1.1400 round-number level and around the previous swing-low area near 1.1350. On the upside, initial resistance is near the 100-day SMA at 1.1553, preceded by the 38.2% retracement at 1.1575. Stronger overhead pressure lies at the 23.6% level at 1.1628 and the 200-day SMA near 1.1631. Together, these levels form a dense resistance zone that the pair would need to reclaim to ease the current bearish bias.

Today, consider buying EUR/USD at 1.1450; stop-loss: 1.1440; targets: 1.1500 and 1.1510.

Commodity Analysis:

WTI Spot Crude Oil

WTI crude remained near its intraday lows on Wednesday and showed little immediate reaction to the Federal Reserve's monetary-policy statement. At the time of writing, WTI was trading near US$97.50 a barrel, down about 3.3% on the day. The Fed unanimously raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. The updated dot plot placed the median year-end policy rate at 4.1%, indicating that policymakers expect one additional 25-basis-point hike this year. Because the move had already been priced in, oil showed little reaction after the announcement. However, higher borrowing costs and a stronger U.S. dollar could weigh on economic activity and future energy demand. At the same time, the market remains focused on Middle East supply risks, which continue to embed a sizeable geopolitical premium in oil prices. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted, while security concerns around the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are adding further uncertainty. Some positive supply-side developments helped push oil prices lower on Wednesday.

In the short term, uncertainty surrounding geopolitical conflict remains high, and oil prices may still experience sharp upside spikes. However, the United States is likely to continue using diplomatic, financial and other tools to mitigate risk, which may cap further gains. The oil market is therefore likely to remain highly volatile and driven by competing forces. Traders need to keep monitoring shipping through the straits, U.S.-Iran diplomatic signals, and real-time developments involving attacks on energy infrastructure in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On the daily chart, the continuous WTI crude contract has risen from the August low around US$73.51 a barrel. It recorded a pullback low near US$85.19 in September before moving back toward Tuesday's high of US$102.10. The Bollinger Band midline is around US$90.05, the upper band around US$102.75 and the lower band around US$77.35. The latest price is about US$100.30, trading near the upper band. MACD readings are DIFF 4.75, DEA 3.51 and MACD 2.48. The histogram remains above zero, although the latest bars have narrowed from their peak. On the upside, watch US$102.10 (Tuesday's high); a breakout could extend toward the US$103-US$105 area. On the downside, watch US$9,553 (9-day moving average) and US$95.23 (10-day moving average).

Today, consider buying WTI crude at 97.00; stop-loss: 96.80; targets: 98.50 and 99.00.

Spot Gold

Spot gold closed lower on Wednesday, trading near US$4,250 after reaching an intraday high of US$4,366. The precious metal came under strong selling pressure after the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised rates by 25 basis points as expected. The decision lifted the federal funds target range (FFTR) to 3.75%-4.00%. The FOMC statement said policymakers viewed U.S. economic activity as expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained elevated. On the labour market, the statement said: "Job growth has kept pace with the labour force, and the unemployment rate has changed little." Chair Kevin Warsh later said at the press conference that the decision was the "right" one because monetary conditions were not yet sufficiently restrictive. His hawkish comments prompted market speculation that the Fed could raise rates as many as two more times before year-end.

On the daily chart, spot gold is trading below the 200-day simple moving average at 4.539. The break below key moving averages has increased downside risk, with bearish momentum building and the near-term bias remaining negative. Gold is holding slightly above the 65-day moving average around US$4,238, which provides initial support. However, RSI has rebounded only to around 42, while the MACD histogram remains negative and continues to move lower, indicating strengthening bearish momentum and further downside risk for the broader rebound. Initial resistance is at the 9-day moving average near US$4,358, with stronger resistance around US$4,400.

Further resistance is located at the round-number area around US$4,400 and the 20-day moving average at US$4,443. On the downside, a break below the 50-day moving average at US$4,279 would shift focus to the 65-day moving average at US$4,238 and the US$4,200 level, where bulls may reassess the medium-term trend.

Today, consider buying spot gold at 4,258; stop-loss: 4,253; targets: 4,300 and 4,310.